France Ligue 2 betting preview: Arles-Dijon
Hugely busy day today and I looked at four Ligue 2 games, one English fixture and wrote something about each of tomorrow's nine J-League matches. Long term subscribers got a lot for their 1€ newsletter(s) today. One of those previews can be viewed below and remember it is only a sample and you only ever see 8% of clubgowi output as free to view content, even less today !
France Ligue 2:
I would suggest starting today by re-reading the "stats" from last week......
Ligue 2 draws are running at 38.18% through 11 rounds, which equates to odds of 2.62, it was a similar story last season 37% after 10 rounds, but down to sub 32% by Christmas, a figure it stayed at through the rest of the campaign, this is a standard trend in this tightest of leagues with matches opening up quite a bit through the second series of ten games and we can expect that to be the case over the next couple of months and as a result, the number of goals, which are already some 0.31 per game down on last season, to increase.
Ahead of Matchday 13, I wrote ......The (previous) round produced only two draws and whilst the goals didn't exacly flow, it certainly feels like we are on the right track in terms of these stats.
And ahead of the last games ....Round 13 saw 7 home and three away wins, so, no draws and an average of 2.5 goals per game and again, this highlights the value of using these trends as starting points, as the stats can really only go one way, the number of draws in one league , or home wins in another, are probably not going to drop/increase by 10% over a full season, that is not impossible, but highly unlikely and the far more obvious conclusion to take, is that it is a temporary blip and the likely outcome is that it will even out over the rest of the campaign.
Those numbers have leveled out very quickly, the draws are back to 32.14% already , but the goals still have a little way to go and I expect the higher scoring trend to continue up to Christmas, of course weather can play a part and we are just coming off a break, but that only slightly dampens confidence and I am going "over" with my best bet of the day."
Now that teams have a match under their belt following the break, I expect the goal trend to continue upwards over the three rounds leading up to the Christmas hiatus.
Arles-Dijon
We have not discussed Arles much this season, suffice to say they are pretty poor, bottom of the table and have won just twice all season, at home to Tours and Niort, two other strugglers and they face a far tougher test this evening. We did look briefly at that Niort game, when I wrote ....
They (Niort) feel they have been playing better than the league table suggests, but they need to be more adventurous on the road and maybe this is the game where we will see it, they have taken four points from their last two visits and although they lost a cup tie here earlier in the season by the odd goal in five, that offers further encouragement that they can score away from home, which has been a major problem in home games. I must admit that I was also tempted by the "over", but the visitors remain without Seydou Kone and with Adama Ba also sidelined, that leaves just one offensive player with more than a single goal and with Arles now bottom of the table and having made a coaching change of sorts, going from a joint coaching policy to one man in charge, we might see both events having a positive effect. They also get increased striking options with Teji Savanier and Mamadou Niang both returning and this looks a team with suddenly more scoring potential than we have seen from them recently. Hosts to edge this.
They did edge it 1-0, but any respite was brief and they have lost three in a row since, conceding two or more in each. Today they are short of key players, already missing their starting right back to long term injury, both central defenders Samual Gigot and Jonathan Zebina are suspended and top scorer Larsen Toure is injured, so in addition to their defensive issues, what might be the worst team in Ligue 2 anyway, are missing the scorers of 7 of their just 13 goals this season.
I spoke after their loss at Troyes, where we had backed the hosts, how much Dijon had impressed me, their attitude was spot on and they are a very strong, physically imposing team. They are without ever present midfielder Johan Gastien today, which is a loss, but the other absences are just fringe players and coach Olivier Dall'Oglio (pictured) has had the "luxury" of being able to leave several, fairly established Ligue 2 performers, out by choice today. They are options Arles do not have and the far stronger team, have a massive advantage in terms of team news. Away win.
1.5 units Dijon -0.25 ball 2.14 asian line/Sportmarket.
Arles : Delac – Bosmel – Bonne – Givet – Quintin – Chimbonda – N’Diaye – Coulomb – Blanc – Savanier – Rodriguez – Ouaamar – Ngakoutou – Van Kessel – Niang – Psaume
Dijon: Perraud, Reynet – Bamba, Diallo, Rémy, Souprayen, Varrault – Amalfitano, Cissé, Marié, Mollet, Philippoteaux, Rodrigues – Babit, Rivière, Tavares
Good Luck.
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