Back in early August I sent subscribers my notes on all 20 EPL teams and put up Nottingham Forest as my dark horse and best value for a top half finish and those notes are reproduced below.  

 

Still a very long way to go, but they are 8th this morning and trading at odds of circa 3.25-3.40, with the 8.0 we backed them at long gone. That is all we are trying to do with the newsletter, finding value, they will not all win, but long term, and we all have different ideas about what that might be, if you can bet as often as possible at odds bigger than the true chance, then you will make a profit.

 

In it's simplest form, it is enough to be right 50% of the time, if I am betting a genuine even money chance @ odds of 2.10 and am right one time in two I will make +5% on turnover, bet 40 games a week for a year and that equates to 52 units profit, whilst being wrong half the time on "almost" even money chances. 

 

Good luck!

 

 

Nottingham Forest have finished 16th-17th in their two seasons since promotion and it has been a real struggle and even without a four point deduction last season their position would have been unchanged. They were fortunate that Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United were so bad, as 32-36 points would have seen them relegated in many other campaigns. On a more positive note, they actually came in at 13th for xP with 50 points and xGA suggests they should have conceded 11 fewer goals. Steve Cooper departed as head coach just before Christmas and he was replaced by Nuno Espirito Santo who impressed in four years at Wolves, but barely lasted four months at Tottenham. 

 

Cooper was fortunate to last so long as owner Evangelos Marinakis has changed his head coach at Olympiakos (one of his other clubs) as often as he has his shirt  (7 in the last 2 years, with 32 games the most anyone managed in charge) and has a very Greek/Italian approach to sackings, that the rest of us struggle to come to terms with, but it works! Olympiakos having won three domestic titles in five seasons (third place in the other two campaigns) and in May they became the first Greek team to ever win a European trophy. He also owns Rio Ave in Portugal where he cleared a lot of debt and got them established back in the top flight. The only reason Cooper was given so long was because he was popular with supporters, who Marinakis wanted to win over, no one else will be as fortunate.  The Greek shipping magnate is ambitious and wants European football for Forest sooner rather than later, but a campaign without a relegation battle would be a start.

 

Two things, I feel that Marinakis has been a little misunderstood, he certainly has the best interests of the club at heart and long term plans which go beyond the playing side. He got Forest to the promised land of the EPL after 23 years in the wilderness of the EFL and was forced into spending big and on a ridiculous number of players in that first season in the EPL and I explained the reasons why at the time ,in detail, in a post on the clubgowi website. They signed 21 players in that window, spending £150m on transfer fees , maybe another £50m on signing fees and a fortune on salaries, it was crazy/ madness and a lot of bad advice was given and a few mercenaries just looking for a payday were signed. That is where all their PSR/FFP issues really started and why they were forced to sell Brennan Johnson. They have stabilized now and last season's signings of Elanga/Wood/Murillo/Dominguez/ Hudson-Odoi all featured a lot and contributed 29 goals and 13 assists (some overlap) in a team that did not score freely. This year they have sold four players for circa £70m and added six younger players from all around Europe and beyond for £10m less and are very aware of PSR now. The additions look decent and whilst it sounds a bit pie in the sky, Marinakis has approached Arsenal about their sporting director Edu Gaspar wanting him as CEO specializing in international football. If nothing else, it shows the direction the club is looking to take and the owner is both ambitious and a fast learner.

 

Secondly, and I took a long time getting here, Nuno is a good coach IMO , I doubt he will get a lot of time and he knows that and will be looking for a fast start, but has some players he wants now and a full preseason and I have quoted him previously as saying that preseason is the "most important period of the season". A lot of the squad fat has been trimmed and they have a talented and very young group most of whom have top flight experience and be battle hardened and will come on for that.,,, Anderson 21yo, Murillo 22, Danilo 23, Milenkovic 22, Elanga 22, Hudson-Odoi 23, Williams 23, Gibbs-White 24 is a ridiculous list and Dominguez, Sangare ,Yates and Awoniyi are all 26 yo . I also like the fact that other issues are being addressed and Nikola Milenkovic was brought in specifically to help with set pieces which were a nightmare last season, with 23 goals conceded  (EPL high, next worst was Luton with 19), the head coach inherited these problems and has worked hard all summer on a solution.

 

Nuno said he was really pleased with preseason, with his team looking "sharp" and putting together some "lovely passages of play" and they finally look equipped to take on the EPL . They lost 26 points from winning positions last season which needs to be addressed, but gives them some upside as does those additional 10 xP and 11 fewer xGA and the set pieces. I also understand that they are looking for a couple of additional signings.

 

Last season I was big on Bournemouth for a top half finish and I think they will go well, but circa 2.75 makes little appeal. Everton and Brentford are not out of the hunt, especially the Bees if the wishlist I outlined this morning comes to pass. However, looking for more of a working man's price, Forest are attractive, they would need to pick up 12 points on last season, but they had that and more with xP. Nuno has had his own window now and a good start could really see them kick on and they begin with Bournemouth/ Southampton/Wolves and 6 of their first 7 home games look win-able, of course they will not win 6 , but you get the idea! They appear to offer the best value in this market.

 

2.5 units Nottingham Forest to finish top half of the table @7.5-8.0 general quote.