EPL betting preview: West Ham United- Brighton
Aug 21, 2022
Premier League: West Ham United- Brighton
As most of you know, I am keen on Brighton and how they operate/are run and in pre-season wrote .......
Today, I would like to look at another EPL team , one who I feel will have a solid 22/23 and build on the good form they have shown across the last two seasons, albeit maybe not fully reflected in their respective finishing positions.
That team is Brighton & Hove Albion.
They finished 15th in 19/20, 16th in 20/21 and 9th last season and even that lofty top half of the table placing doesn't echo their ability and they have two big areas of potential improvement that they can focus on and which opens up the possibility of a European push.
The Seagulls finished where they would have expected in 19/20 in relation to xP, but should have scored an additional 8-9 goals, the season before last they were 5th for xP and a whopping 14 goals went "missing", in 21/22 they were circa 9 goals light and xP suggests that 7th would have been a fairer reflection of how they played across 38 games.
There is plenty to suggest there that top 7 is achievable and also that they should be able to add another 8-10 goals , they have not been able to find that double digit striker which is key and their top goalscorer has had 8 goals in each of the last two campaigns. However, this will surely be addressed at some stage , as Brighton are a very professionally run club, along the lines of Brentford (more of that comparison later) , who trade well in the transfer market and they are ahead of the curve in terms of analytics and thinking outside the box.
What they 100% need to do is win more games at home , they have not posted more than five wins on the South Coast since 18/19 and never more than seven since promotion in 16/17, averaging 4.7 wins and 17.7 goals across the last three seasons. I have spoken several times of the AmEx not being an intimidating venue and of a half hearted pre match rendition of "Sussex by the Sea" unlikely to strike fear into any visiting opponent. But again, huge possibilities to add another 6-9 points there and in upper mid table EPL terms, that is usually the difference between 11th and 6th place.
They have a rivalry of sorts with Brentford, mainly down to the two owners being former friends/colleagues, who do business in identical markets, but who now have a soured relationship , I have been told it is very bad and Brighton owner Tony Bloom (pictured) would not go into the Brentford boardroom when the two clubs met at Lionel Road last season. When two individuals are traders/ gamblers and don't like each other, yet operate in the same market, that is always going to result in fierce rivalry and there is huge competition for each to finish above the other and ,with the Bees looking to kick on for top ten, Brighton will be desperate to equal/better that.
Bloom runs Star Lizard a sports betting consultancy/ syndicate, along similar lines to Smartodds which is owned by Brentford supremo Matthew Benham and each has access to analytics and data that even the Big 6 clubs with their vast resources cannot replicate, no other clubs are going to be employing 100+ people all geared to producing statistics with the purpose of improving performances in betting markets , but also, and just as importantly on and off the pitch at their clubs, where both are true supporters. Additionally, getting people in key positions at these clubs who "really understand" the numbers and their value. I read often about teams saying they are looking to "do a Brentford" , buy low and sell high, well if it was that easy every club in the world would do it, how about starting with a "genius" at the helm and then employing 100+ people to produce the data and then finding talent to implement it all and that before signing any of these "cheap" transfer targets, not so simple is it ?
Anyway, Brighton and Bloom are similarly set up and head coach Graham Potter is much admired, but also probably knows his job at the AmEx is secure as long as the team is playing well (performing at good "expected" levels), almost regardless of results and Bloom and Benham know that it is more important long term to play well and underperform results wise than the reverse and that is kind of unique in modern football, if something can apply to 2-3 teams and be unique! It removes a lot of the pressure on Potter and Thomas Frank his Brentford counterpart and allows them to operate in a secure environment and to plan long term. Potter has improved Brighton and previous clubs season on season and is a great student of analytics, he holds a degree in social sciences and Masters in Leadership and Emotional Intelligence . The 47 yo has overseen a huge upgrade in his team defensively since he took over, at the back they are statistically almost twice as good despite selling two central defenders in Ben White and Dan Burn for large fees. Aside from the Big 6 and in spite of the lucrative television funding, all EPL teams remain selling clubs when the giants of the game come calling and the financial advantage they have over the average top flight side, is far greater than the mid table Premier League teams have over those in the Championship. To be able to continue to improve whilst selling key players is what will ultimately separate the men from the boys and could eventually turn "also rans" into achievers, is the big advantage that Brighton and Brentford have over their competitors. Whilst it gets harder to find hidden gems in the transfer market when you are looking for them to slot into the Premier League as opposed to the Championship, it is possible,as long as you are never willing to accept the status quo and that what has "always worked" will continue to do so, as it will not .
The Seagulls have also improved by 20-25% offensively since Potter's arrival despite the goal shortfall and it is hard for me to see too much drop off from last season's top half finish, but with a realistic chance to improve by those 6-9 points. They have already sold Yves Bissouma to Tottenham for decent money, but have bought two highly promising youngsters, one from Denmark (Simon Adingra) and the other from Paraguay (Julio Enciso) for circa 20m euros total. They will hope to retain LWB Marc Cucurella for at least one more season, he is already being tracked by Big 6 clubs, but has only been at the AmEx for 12 months and for Brighton and Brentford, they know that best transfer value/profit is usually achieved after the second season and he could be worth an extra 25-30m this time next year. But it is the signing of Enciso I want to touch upon, as it is an example of looking at other markets post Brexit and this is something I discussed last summer in regard to Brentford and Lee Dykes and an interview the then director of player recruitment gave to The Athletic and I actually chose to highlight a few lines relating to these different markets, when Brighton got a mention ..............
This fits owner Benham’s holistic approach. Brentford’s rise is about social intelligence as well as data. Benham wants Brentford to out-think competitors, not out-spend them. As Dykes says: “It’s Matthew’s way of thinking. We were one of the first clubs to employ a throw-in coach, a set-piece coach, we were the first to employ a sleep coach. We teach young players how to cook. We have all these things that we plough into individual development.”
Preparing for and reacting to Brexit has also occupied Benham’s management team and if there are recruitment trends caused by the UK’s withdrawal from the European Union, one will be a new emphasis on domestic signings, another will be a growth in South America’s presence in the Premier League. Benham also owns FC Midtjylland in Denmark. Dykes is their head of recruitment too. It means he is fully aware of differing regulations.
“It’s been huge,” he says of Brexit. “But we were prepared for it. Fin Stevens and Aaron Pressley, players we recruited for the B team, might have been Europeans or Scandinavians before, but there’s been a shift with GBE — Governing Body Endorsement. A lot of under-valued markets have been closed off by GBE. In the last few weeks, they’ve relaxed it a bit with under-21s.
“But as the EU closes, we can go to South America and Asia. There’s an opportunity and we’ve seen players in Uruguay. You’ve just seen Yerson Mosquera join Wolves for £4.5 million. Twelve months ago, we could have only considered them for Midtjylland. Now he can go to England. Moises Caicedo, another one, has gone to Brighton. They’re from Colombia and Ecuador, Midtjylland have just signed Brazilian midfielder Charles from Ceara in Fortaleza."
In regard to signing CONMEBOL talent, I would say that Brighton were a little ahead of Brentford right now and all credit to them for that , but the two are probably two+ years ahead of most other EPL clubs and I do know that the Bees made a couple of offers on South American players in the last transfer window. By the way, Manchester United tried to lure Dykes away from Brentford this month and made him an offer, but he opted to remain in West London (who wouldn't ?) and was promoted to Technical Director yesterday, so the approach was good for him on a personal level.
The big clubs can come calling for these backroom staff who have super impressive CV's, Dan Ashworth left Brighton to take the Newcastle United Saudi riyal in February, but these guys leave without the huge backing of Star Lizard or Smartodds and however smart they are, it is a very different scenario going virtually cold turkey and starting from scratch, or with a small team of analysts.
I like the chances of Brighton in the "best of the rest" markets, it is a little dangerous betting anything at this stage of the off season and they could sell Cucurella too, but there will be contingency plans and "no one" had heard of the LWB 12 months ago and, the Seagulls and Bees almost always replace with better. But these notes are of interest with regard to how the two clubs operate and the type of player we will see coming into the EPL on a more regular basis and Brighton are just worthy of discussion and with significant improvement potential .
Brighton update: No new deals either way, but Marc Cucurella has tried to force a move to Manchester City, handing in a transfer request after the champions showed some interest, but the Seagulls have stuck fast to their £50m valuation and no deal has yet been done. Having said that City need a player like him and he clearly wants the move, so I suspect it remains likely and Brighton to already be in negotiations with a couple of replacements. Not ideal for Albion. However, I have seen them in a couple of pre-season games and they looked really slick and some of their passing was top level and they put five past Espanyol at the weekend without Cucurella in the matchday squad.
Ahead of an opening day trip to Old Trafford where they won 2-1 I further added .......
Obviously I am keen on Brighton and they will have that late season 4-0 win over United firmly in the memory bank as they step off of the team bus today. Things have quickly turned sour at Old Trafford , even before Erik ten Hag has taken charge of a league game, with several players including Cristiano Ronaldo leaving a pre-season fixture before the match was over. The coach is said to be a perfectionist and "control freak" and nothing we have seen yet screams that we will see a return to the glory days at Old Trafford. Their numbers were not good last season, they had a negative, albeit minimal, xGD and were barely top 10 for xP, at times the players seemed disinterested and put in one or two disgraceful performances and whilst there has been a clear out of some dissenting voices, it feels like a big job at a club where there has been far too much player power. ETH might be and probably is a great coach, but he has never taken charge of a senior team outside his native country and we have to see how the early weeks of his reign play out.
They have played once subsequently a 0-0 draw with big spending Newcastle United, but were 3-0 for BC's and 1.97-0.18 for xG and were moral winners, as most teams are when they face the Saudi owned Magpies! They have had a free midweek to prepare for this, whereas United had a Thursday Europa League game and the Seagulls have also bossed all h2h EPL meetings in London, scoring 11 goals in five visits without a defeat. United have kept just one clean sheet in 11 competitive starts and that versus an already relegated opponent and that sequence includes a 3-1 loss away to Brighton at the end of last season.
Brighton to score twice for the 5th time in six visits , or off level ball, the choice is yours !
2 units Brighton to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.88 asian line.
Good luck!
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