Playoff games have traditionally had a very heavy home bias, but we have not seen more Wild Card games (first round of postseason) go the way of the hosting teams since 2017, with a subsequent 6-12 split in favour of the road team. It is a small sample size of course, but the NFL has been heading that way for some time , both pre and post lockdown and we should be wary of strong home playoff favourites. In fact , of the six games they did win, only one was by more than a touchdown and three came by 2-3 points and, this weekend  of the six games being played, each has the home team favoured by more than a field goal, which should have alarm bells ringing very loudly in all our heads !

 

There were more road wins than homes in the NFC and if we take the Super Bowl champs Tampa Bay and Green Bay (who are just phenomenal at Lambeau) out of the equation, only 47 of the other 112 games went the way of the home team.  That Conference is being played tomorrow, so need not overly concern us today and as always, these kinds of stats and numbers are only ever starting points for looking at games.

 

I also noticed this ......... the 16 teams who led at the end of the first quarter went 13-3 and we did well over the closing weeks of the season ( apart from that one week we are not mentioning again !) with teams who were fast out of the blocks. We definitely need very good alternative reasons to back slow starting home teams asked to give up more than a field goal and even then we should think twice and probably not bet !

 

Both of the Saturday games are going to be played in VERY cold weather (possibly snow too) which will favour the run and usually makes things fun !