NFL preview: Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers................
Oct 04, 2021
NFL:Las Vegas Raiders @ LA Chargers
12 months ago I spoke about the Raiders first ever start in Las Vegas when they hosted the Saints, albeit in an empty arena ........
It just seems wrong to type Las Vegas before the Raiders, LA for a while was bad enough ! Anyway, this is their first season in Nevada and today their home opener and first ever NFL game at the Allegiant Stadium, in fact,it is the first ever event played in the arena which was only completed in July. There are no fans allowed, so any home field advantage is going to be minimal.
Last mid season I wrote this about the Raiders and head coach Jon Gruiden who had been given a ten year (!) contract .............
The Raiders ended last season on 4-12, but that was sacrificed in order to rebuild and rebuild Gruden has ,they are 4-4 and, from this point on and I am talking long term, I only see them improving and to be honest, whenever I have seen them this year, I have been impressed.
This is a bit difficult as some numbers I do not want to discuss, but they are up 10 places in total offense, 12 in scoring offense, 24 in rushing defense from those above and have scored 24 points in each of their last five starts, they have also scored 13.7 first half points in their last 3 games, 12.7 in those after half time ( so the big drop off has stopped) and Gruden has addressed almost all issues, or rather, and I have to be fair here, always knew what he was doing and was prepared to make sacrifices and take flak last season, to make the quantum leap forward required, which his team have not done yet, but look like they will soon enough. Defensively they have a way to go, but it is nice to be on 4-4 and have areas in which you can only improve . QB Derek Carr looks to have got that confidence back, his numbers for DYAR/DVOA (it doesn't matter at this stage !) saw him ranked between 7th and 12th in 2015-17 ( when they averaged 8.33 wins), last year he was 21st, he is currently 5th , the four players above him are Wilson, Mahomes, Stafford and Watson so elite company and Carr, arguably playing better than ever.
I have a lot more to say about Oakland , but want to save it for another day, I spent five hours going through some numbers on Wednesday afternoon ( not all I understood on first , or even second reading !) and am quite excited ( I have said that twice this season, but it is not a word I use often, so it should be noted) by what is going on in the "wrong" part of the Bay Area ( you know I am a Niner) and am sure we will do well with them in the next 15-27 months.
They ended the season on 7-9, it should have been 8-8 they were robbed of a win by some bad calls and were still in playoff contention until the final day. It was a season of nearly, but not quite. Their offense was good, especially with the breakouts of Darren Waller and rookie star running back Josh Jacobs. But the defense let them down a little and was not helped by the loss of Karl Joseph in week 9 , following on from the injury to Johnathan Abram in Week 1. Abram was back last week and the Raiders have traded to upgrade the defense with middle LB Cory Littleton coming in from the Rams, they also had a second big draft in a row with Henry Ruggs III, an incredibly fast wideout arriving from Alabama and they also selected two cornerbacks in Damon Arnette (pick 19) and Amik Robertson , as well as Clemson safety Tanner Muse. Their three other draft picks were to try and bolster options on offense with Lynn Bowden Jr., wideout Bryan Edwards and guard John Simpson. They also added Marcus Mariota who is a well above average backup quarterback and he will help/put some pressure on Derek Carr.
Last week they beat the Panthers 34-30 in Charlotte, it was hard to pick too many holes in that, they put up a balanced offense, 23 first downs with an even split and 133 yards on the ground and 239 through the air, did not turnover the ball, bossed possession, Ruggs had a 45 yard reception and Arnetter, Littleton and especially Abram were the main contributors on defense. The Raiders put up better numbers all around than Tampa did at home to Carolina yesterday and it was a pleasing start for LV, something to work on.
It was a party-like opening, despite the lack of a crowd and the next day I updated with .......
Big night for the Raiders and LV and I knew we were safe once they had a local band (The Killers) on for the half-time show, it suddenly all felt right with the Raider Nation and move to Vegas, with a superstar performance from Darren Waller (great grandson of "Fats").
Last year the season did end 8-8, it was not what they wanted, but they took an early decision to play without a home crowd for the full season which did not help. LV started strong and were 6-3 at one stage with wins over the aforementioned Saints, Chiefs and Browns who all made the postseason and were a combined 37-11, before a late season collapse, so they have no need to fear anyone and know that they can compete with the strongest teams.
This season they have started 3-0 with wins over the 3-1 Ravens and Steelers at Heinz Field and ahead of the former I was keen on the Raiders and touched upon this being an almost make or break season for them .................
General Manager Mike Mayock and head coach Gruden have both spoken about there being no excuses this year and of the Raiders simply having to be a playoff team in 2021, they added that this is "our team" one we have taken three years to build, "with our fingerprints all over it." They had big issues with the defense last year , which has been completely overhauled both in terms of personnel and coaching staff (Gus Bradley is the new defensive coordinator) , with a big upgrade in terms of speed . The pair said they were "absolutely thrilled " with the offensive line and the offense was ranked top 10 last year, despite quarterback Derek Carr being basically handcuffed by Gruden from taking risks as the defense was "too weak". That will not be the case this season and Carr has an elite receiving corps and balanced game plan, star RB Jacobs now has the very speedy Kenyan Drake backing him up and Drake will also add a passing threat as one of the quickest players in the whole NFL.
Bradley who has taken charge of the defense held the same role at the Seahawks taken them from 4-12 to 11-5 in his four seasons there and picking up a head coaching job as a result, he took defensive duties at the Chargers next and they went from 5-11 the year before he arrived, to 9-7 and then 12-4 and really, the only way is up with this unit at the Raiders. They stayed competitive despite giving up 478 points last season ( the only team who allowed more @ 492 finished 1-15) any improvement will help, but it is possible that the defense could make a quantum leap forward and then, almost anything can happen, even in a division containing the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos who all posted wins yesterday.
Obviously Bradley is going to have a lot of data on/knowledge about the Chargers and that has to be a huge positive for LV. Neither will they be handicapped by the game being played in LA at the SoFi stadium, they won 31-26 here last season and also this pre season against the Rams and the Raiders have huge support in California . They are still the most popular team in LA, despite leaving there in 19994 , being the only team to bring a Super Bowl title to the city, estimates yesterday indicated that as much as 74% of the crowd will be made up of always raucous Raiders fans and this will be a home game for the Chargers only in name.
The Raiders have won three of the last four h2h games , scoring 24 + points in all four, at an average of 27.0 pg.
The Chargers have also served us pretty well so far, on Matchday 2 we opposed them at home to the Cowboys when my notes included .............
23 yo Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert looks the real deal and led his team to a 20-16 win over Washington last weekend, I discussed that game on Thursday and noted ..........
They (WFT) came up short 16-20 , but lost quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick ( see above) early and he will be out for a few weeks, he was replaced by Taylor Heinicke, who is similar in many ways to Fitzpatrick and he played pretty well and helped Washington come from behind to lead early in the 4th quarter, before their star RB fumbled at their own 2 yard line and the rest is now consigned to history ! They kept the Chargers one dimensional, giving up an average of just 3.1 yards on 29 carries and got LA in a hole multiple times, which they escaped from, converting on 14/19 third downs, a 73.68% conversion rate is insane btw ! Twelve NFL teams were sub 40% in that category last season and only one converted above 50% and then just 50.97%.
That was Herbert's 16th start and 7th win, Wikipedia set out in detail how his 2020 rookie season played out ................
On September 20, 2020, Herbert made his first NFL start in Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, replacing Taylor, who suffered a chest injury during pre-game warm-ups. He finished with 311 passing yards, one touchdown, one interception, and one rushing touchdown as the Chargers lost 20–23 in overtime. He became only the third player in NFL history to pass for at least 300 yards and rush for a touchdown in his first career game. During Week 4 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Herbert completed 20 passes out of 25 attempts for 290 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception as the Chargers lost 31–38. On October 8, 2020, Herbert was named the starting quarterback for the Chargers over Tyrod Taylor going forward.
In Week 5 against the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football, Herbert threw for 264 yards and four touchdowns during the 30–27 overtime loss. He became the first rookie in NFL history to throw for four touchdown passes on Monday Night Football.Herbert was named Offensive Rookie of the Month after throwing 10 touchdowns to one interception in three starts with 901 passing yards and a 122.2 passer rating. He also became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history with multiple touchdowns in seven consecutive games. Herbert was named the Offensive Rookie of the Month for his performance in November.
On December 27, 2020, Herbert threw his 28th passing touchdown of the season against the Denver Broncos, breaking the NFL record for most passing touchdowns by a rookie (previously held by Baker Mayfield) during the 19–16 win. During the game, he also threw for over 4,000 yards on the season, becoming only the fourth rookie quarterback to achieve the feat (the others are Cam Newton in 2011, Andrew Luck in 2012, and Jameis Winston in 2015). He was named Rookie of the Year and Offensive Rookie of the Year by the Pro Football Writers of America.
That sounds and is amazing, but the fact remains that the Chargers lost 9 of those games and the aim of all sport is to win and not just post fancy numbers and if that is unfair to Herbert, then so be it, but he should have lost last week and the Chargers did not step up last season until their year was over.
However, I did jump ship and sided with them last week when they won in Kansas City, picking on some good h2h numbers for Herbert in his starts against the Chiefs and with the schedule not being overly kind to KC..............
That (The game with the Cowboys) could have gone either way, the Chargers were not great in the red zone, or on third down, Herbert put up plenty of yards, but threw just the one TD and was picked off twice. My thoughts remain that he finds a way to throw fancy numbers rather than winning games, but this feels like a better matchup for him and he had two big games against the Chiefs last year, with over 300 yards in each, winning one and as I have already said, KC might not be as strong defensively right now. Also, we get a good handicap start and the Chargers have been involved in more one possession games than any other team in the NFL since 2019. Chiefs are also going from a night game on the road on the East Coast to an early kick off in KC.
LA were involved in yet another one possession game (see above ) winning 30-24, there were plenty of positives to take from that of course, but that is not what we are looking for today, when I prefer to highlight the fact that they were again poor on the ground on both sides of the ball and I will say for about the 200th time, that to be successful, you HAVE to have a balanced offense in the NFL. They also allowed KC a super high 33 first downs, the Chiefs "only " had 31 when scoring 42 points yesterday to give that some perspective. The Chargers are 2-1 and heading in the right direction , but might easily be 0-3 and have to find a ground game. Today they are without top tackler Kenneth Murray Jr which is going to make it even easier for the Raiders to double up on the one true LA defensive star Joey Bosa and we have to factor in that Gus Bradley ( see above) knowledge too.
I see this as more of a coinflip and big value with the Raiders who are given only a 40% chance to win, "all" Charger games are close, they don't have a running game and Las Vegas have the inside scoop on the LA defense and can load up on Bosa. LVR quarterback Derek Carr has also been in tremendous form, at least in 5 of the 6 halves he has played and especially so down the stretch, with sensational second half passer rating numbers and he can find a way to get the visitors over the line in a close game. My head is saying take the +3 points about the Raiders, but my heart says to be brave and go with the money line and on this occasion, common sense loses out !
2.25 units Las Vegas Raiders to beat the LA Chargers 2.51 Pinnacle/Vegas Line.
Good luck !
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