Premier League betting tip: Brighton - Arsenal
Oct 02, 2021
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Premier League: Brighton - Arsenal
Ahead of the North London derby last weekend my notes included ................
The mood is more upbeat in the Gunners camp and, after an awful start to their season, they have gone the opposite direction to Spurs and the decision to stick with Mikel Arteta has begun to pay dividends and he has been helped by the treatment room clearing. They have beaten little in three straight wins, but did not concede and unlike their North London neighbours, created plenty, they look more offensive minded than Tottenham who rarely play to their strengths and continue to look to play in transition/on the break, without the players to do so. Arsenal are close to full strength, get Granit Xaka back from suspension and they summer defensive signings are starting to gel and along with the return of Thomas Partey and Gabriel Margalhaes , they have gone from a bit of a mess at the back to looking very solid and fresh, with no european football and time on the training pitch helping and being well spent. For me, right now, the Gunners starting 11 looks significantly the stronger of these two and Spurs are just not creating enough, with second fewest attempts pg in the EPL and fewest on the road. Also, Tottenham are dropping too deep, too quickly with very little pressing in the offensive third.
They led 3-0 at half time and won 3-1 with the scoreline being given a more flattering look by Spurs, after the Gunners stepped off the gas, prior to which, Tottenham were woeful, so I am not having Arsenal as the real deal just yet. However, I have seen both them and Brighton at Brentford this season and despite the Gunners losing 2-0 and the Seagulls winning 1-0, it was Arsenal who impressed me more and they were without a host of players for that game. The home side have started the season well and could have gone top of the table with all three points at Palace on Monday, but fortunately they took a point through a late Neal Maupay (love the guy, but he likes winding up opposition supporters as much as scoring !)..............
This is a big rivalry which is always a little difficult for outsiders to understand, but supporters REALLY do not like each other and it has spilled over to players and the respective clubs at times
Brighton would move top of the table with all three points tonight and that alone is huge incentive enough, but to do so at Selhurst Park, the home of their biggest rival , would be the icing on the cake.
However, that is the last thing that Palace want and they will be as motivated as for any game played so far this season, to prevent that. The Eagles are down in 15th place and look set to struggle this season and ahead of their seasonal opener I wrote ........
Roy Hodgson has left Palace and been replaced by Patrick Viera, I think the intention is to play more offensively, but I am not sure he is the man for that and it is a big turnaround in staff for the Eagles, with a dozen or so contracts allowed to expire. Despite all those senior players being sent packing and some youthful talent coming in, it is still one of the older squads and none of the additions have top flight experience. Eze is still injured, Zaha is always on the verge of leaving and this is a club at the start of a major transition and one trying to do it in the toughest league in the world, with a coach with no experience of this kind of managerial pressure and coming off a poor season. Palace had the 3rd worst xP, the worst goal difference outside the bottom three and really rode their luck to win 12 games, in at least two of which they were absolutely battered, but took three points and they conceded a goal per game (exactly) after the break, a joint EPL high.
They have collected five points, four coming in their two home games, a 0-0 draw with Brentford and 3-0 defeat of Tottenham and, for my stating the obvious comment of the day, I will say that they were tough to score against in both, giving up few chances of note. They actually played quite adventurously in the second, even before Spurs were reduced to 10 men, but this is a team we should expect to continue with the Hodgson policy of making themselves difficult to beat and a point this evening would take them three clear of the drop zone and that is always a nice buffer.
Brighton won their last away start, inflicting the only defeat of the season so far on Brentford, that was the Bees most lacklustre showing of the season so far, but they were the only team looking to win the game for 70-75 minutes and missed the four best chances of the game in the opening 45 minutes and might have been two up at the half. I was a little shocked by how little ambition the Seagulls showed against a newly promoted side and I expect both teams to be very cautious through the opening exchanges this evening and this could easily and quickly fall in a pattern, with neither wanting to put their point at risk. The last two h2h meetings here in South London ended 1-1 and a third draw looks very much on the cards and is surely the best value on offer.
I like the extra 27-28 hours that the Gunners have had to rest and prepare and they should have been able to fit in one extra full training session for today and that is always an edge in my book. I like going with what I have seen with my own eyes (live as opposed to televised) and am also concerned with some of the hosts xGF numbers, 0.75 at home to Everton and 0.17 away to the Bees for example and at the end of the day, under Graham Potter, the Seagulls have won just 11/41 home,starts (a 26.83% win rate).
2 units Arsenal -0.5 ball 2.55 asian line.
Good luck !
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