NFL playoffs: NFC betting tip:16/01 #6 LA Rams @ #1 Green Bay Packers
Jan 15, 2021
Huge weekend ahead with four newsletters scheduled and clubgowi subscribers have already been sent an 8,000 + word email today which included my best outsider for the upcoming NFL playoff games and you can read that below.........
NFL playoffs: NFC:16/01 #6 LA Rams @ #1 Green Bay Packers
Let's start with a look back at the six games from last weekend.
If the Ravens win felt easier than the scoreline suggested, this 30-20 victory for the LA Rams was a rout ! 14 points for the Seahawks came on miracle/fortunate plays when they were gambling and in truth, this was as dominant a defensive performance as we have seen in the NFL post season for some time and I am talking years ! Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson had a torrid time, he completed only 11 /27 passes for 278 yards, both of which were seasonal low numbers. He was also sacked 5 times (that's 16 times against the Rams in three meetings this season) , was intercepted once and it should have been three times, his team were held to just 11 first downs and were 0-8 on 3rd downs before the Rams eased off slightly. Even then they were 2-6 going forward (2-14 total) and the Rams also had the ball for 7 minutes longer than Seattle. Rookie LA running back Cam Akers had a great game on the ground and in his first playoff appearance, announced himself as a big time player.
LA were turnover free for the first time this season and it all feels like it is coming together and the Rams are peaking at the right time and, in Aaron Donald they have the best defensive player in the NFL and no one can contain #99. Many people consider him the biggest talent in the league period. I am not sure how you can compare offensive and defensive players, but Donald is a game changer.
Tyler Lockett the Seattle Seahawks receiver was asked after the game what made the Rams defense so tough and said :
"I mean the Rams, they have a really great defense, man. They got a really great defensive front, and they do a great job of being able to stop the run, and when you make a team one-dimensional, their defense is literally based on knowing how to be able to stop the pass. They do a lot of things that are very interesting, but a lot of times when you watch their film and see the things that they do, they make you have to play one-on-one in the boundary and stuff like that because they do a good job and drop a lot of people back, stop the deep routes. They do a good job taking over all the routes on the other side of the field and so, I mean they just have a really good game plan. I know a lot about their defense and I played at K-State and that's all we ran. They did a great job. They got a phenomenal defense and you can tell they made a lot of plays in the secondary. You have to give credit to the way that they played. Every time you watch their film, secondary guys are making a lot of great plays, too. When you play against the Rams, you have to be able to just run the ball. When you're in the playoffs, too, it's hard to be able to keep winning if you're going to be one-dimensional on any team. You have to be able to control the clock. Those are things you start learning when I do listen to coaches and I do listen to players and I start trying to learn the IQ of the game. It's hard to be able to control the game unless you're able to run the ball and the Rams did a great job with that. Even as I watched other teams in the playoffs previously they do a good job of controlling the clock and running the ball and that's one of the things that we just weren't able to do today. I can always do a better job of blocking, too. I try to go out there and block, you know I'm 178, 180, I'll be back, probably 186, or try to be. I just try to do the best that I can to help out the team, and everybody did the best that they could, but the Rams got a great defense and we were able to capitalize on it in the last game, but they were able to get us in this game."
This is verification of what I always say about the NFL that you have to have a balanced offense and you cannot allow the opposition to largely dictate what plays you can call.
We have some great games in prospect this weekend.
Let's start in Wisconsin with the Packers hosting the Rams as I feel my hands are tied here . The weather is going to be cold (very), windy and with snow and those conditions will of course suit the home team better and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is used to this kind of game and his Rams counterpart Jared Goff is still dealing with a thumb injury. However, Goff should be better with another week of relative rest/ practice with the issue and cold weather games are usually dominated by defense and the run. Tyler Lockett already told us you have to be able to run the ball against the Rams and the Packers have a broadly similar running game to Seattle. Also , the one game in which Green Bay looked decidedly ordinary, in fact, not even average, was a 38-10 loss to the Bucs (who are the only similar defensive unit to the Rams). In that game Rodgers was awful , making 16 completions on 35 attempts for 160 yards, he was sacked 4 times and intercepted twice and did not throw a TD. In his other 15 starts Rodgers threw 48 TD passes and just 3 INT and completed 72.51% of his passes. Green Bay were 13-3 for the season, but 1-2 versus top 8 defensive units and 60% of the interceptions thrown by Rodgers came in those three games and his completion percentage was down 12%. Factor in the weather and that the Rams might be able to force the Packers into playing the game their way and at odds of circa 3.60+ I think we have a bet !
2.5 units LA Rams +4.5 points 2.22 Pinnacle/Sportmarket Pro/Vegas Line.
Good luck !
#6 LA Rams @ #3 Seattle Seahawks ( Saturday 21:40 )
This is the other of those #3 v #6 match ups and the one I feel we have to bet. The two NFC West rivals split the regular season games, with the Rams taking the first by 7 points and in that they were a net +4 for first downs, +56 total yardage and +6:12 time of possession. In the second they had a very similar +5 first downs, +42 yards and +5:40 time of possession and lost by 11 points ! Big difference was that they struggled in the red zone in the second meeting, and were still reeling from an upset loss the week before, but they also sacked Seahawks QB Russell Wilson six times in the first and have the elite defense to get to him again. They should have got that out of their system now, returned to winning ways last week and they are very close to full strength, head coach Sean McVay said that he anticipates the return of wide receiver Cooper Kupp and defensive end Michael Brockers from the COVID-19 list and that there was a good chance that left tackle Andrew Whitworth would be activated from injured reserve.On Tuesday’s injury report, only starting left guard David Andrews was completely out with injury. Quarterback Jared Goff (thumb) was listed as limited for Tuesday and McVay wouldn’t make any announcement about his status for Saturday, but Goff trained fully on Wednesday and will surely be good to go.
McVay is still VERY young, he became the Rams head coach in 2017 at the age of 30, the youngest in modern NFL history and he has led them to four straight winning years, compiling a 43-21 regular season record, he has taken them to the playoffs three times and to the 2018 Super Bowl. McVay has won 5 of his last 7 starts against Seattle, the other loss was by just a single point and I think they are overpriced today. McVay got huge publicity in 2017 and the run to the Super Bowl but has gone more under the radar subsequently, but is a superstar and brave head coach.
Almost exactly two years ago I wrote an article about the changing nature of the NFL which included .........
McVay and the words "brilliant offensive mind" are often included in the same sentence, he might be, but it is probably more correct that he understands analytics and data on the sport. His concept " put the ball into the hands of your best playmakers in favorable situations" implies that ,and he clearly comprehends situational plays. Pro Football weekly wrote this back in September: According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Todd Gurley has rushed against eight or more defenders in the box on just 16 percent of his carries so far this season. That means he carried the ball just 10 times against a loaded box. According to the site, 37 other running backs in the league have seen a higher percentage of their carries against eight or more defenders in the box. McVay knows that running against loaded boxes is usually pointless and inefficient. You are going to average a significantly lower yards per carry when there are more defenders in the box. The only time it’s acceptable is in short-yardage situations, at the goal line or when running out the clock at the end of the game. Any other time, you are just throwing away opportunities to put points on the board.The Rams only run when the numbers are in their favor. Take a look at this run by Gurley in the first quarter of last week’s game. The Rams come out in '11' personnel, forcing the Chargers to counter with their nickel package. That move, in itself, will create a numbers advantage for the offense as now there are only two linebackers on the field.But McVay doesn’t stop there. To create an even bigger disadvantage for the defense, the Rams run a fake jet sweep, which causes the backside defensive end to pause for a fraction of a second.At the snap of the ball, there were only five defenders “in the box” to stop the run. When you add in the jet sweep, there are now four defenders trying to beat five blockers and the running back.
Good and (relatively) simple isn't it ?
McVay also knows it is productive to throw on first down more often, you will never hear an "older" coach talk about anything like that, it is always establish the run first or something similar, or "analytics will never get fired" (that's a "good" one) , going with the "tried and trusted" which the opposition expect, rather than looking for the more unusual play , or one most likely to garner greater dividends. McVay will adapt to whatever defensive set ups will allow , it is not rocket science, but all too rare right now in the NFL.
His team is very much under considered this year, but win this and I think they have a "coin flip" chance of doing so and they are definitely in the mix. Also, and I have not seen this mentioned elsewhere, 5 of the last 8 Super Bowls have featured a NFC West team and few poor teams have come through that tough section . That includes Seattle too of course, but I think the Rams are a live outsider at huge odds and they make my Super Bowl portfolio, which we have started late this year, but doesn't mean we cannot find a big priced winner .
The Rams are also 6-0 in non divisional Conference games, the only other team with that record is the Chiefs, so in good position if they do come through this and these postseason divisional games are traditionally low scoring and that will suit the strong defensively Rams, who are ranked #1 overall, #1 against the pass and #3 versus the pass and they are the only team to give up less than 300 points this season.
My issues with the Seahawks are well documented, they were fortunate to win the division and too often Russell Wilson has to pick them up, hoist them onto his broad shoulders and carry them over the finishing line, that can only continue for so long, it feels like it has for years, but clear signs recently that it is beginning to catch up with quarterback Wilson. Last 7 Seahawks games have seen six go "under" and that should also favour the stronger defensive unit.
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