First up, why are these two games starting at the same time ? The winners of the tie will meet in a one leg quarter final in Lisbon, but not for 8 days. Surely we could have had staggered kick off times.............always nice to get the moan of the day out of the way early !

 

A week is a long time in politics and sport and as such, five and a half months is almost a lifetime. That is how long it has been since the first leg in Madrid which City won 2-1 and ahead of which I wrote .................

 

As tough as this fixture is, it is rare we get to see odds of 2.40+ for City (only at Anfield perhaps) and that alone makes it worth a second look.

The visitors are drinking in the last chance saloon in terms of this current crop winning the Champions League they have been hunting for so long, as they are facing the prospect of a two year ban (subject to appeal).

They have no real distractions, that sounds crazy with the League Cup final this weekend (Aston Villa) and FA Cup 5th round game next midweek (Sheffield Wednesday) , but neither matters overly and they could win both at (almost) half pace. They are second in the Premier League, cannot win it, look guaranteed 2nd, so the reality is that it is ONLY about the CL and this game. Things have finally started to go well in build up, after losing the title race and ban, they have beaten Leicester City to cement second, now have Aymeric Laporte in that porous backline and Raheem Sterling back from injury. Real's form has nosedived and they are without Eden Hazard.

Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne could run riot against a Real team who have lost Cristiano Ronaldo and look past their best. Real have lost their La Liga lead to Barcelona, conceded 8 in their last 4, six at home to Sociedad and Celta ( cup and league) and are coming off a 1-0 loss at a pretty poor Levante team and facing a potentially decisive (if they lose) title game with Barce on Sunday.

For once the boot is on the other foot and all the advantages coming in are in City's favour. Biggest game of the season for City, Real have two such games in the next four games.

After that loss things went a lot better for Real and they were 11-1-1 over their final 13 La Liga starts to take the title by 5 points. They had 87 points , Barcelona 82 , it was Real's 4th lowest total over the last 11 seasons and the joint lowest winning total in 12 years. It was Barce's lowest tally since 2007-08, five less than their second lowest haul subsequently and this feels like a substandard La Liga and that the Big 2 are some way below the level we always expect from both.

 

Having said that, Real are in better form and more confident than for the first leg, but they have not played for 19 days and that is a negative, but offset somewhat by their huge european experience and hunger for success in this competition . City finished their domestic campaign a week later and it just feels far easier to keep things ticking over across 12 days, a few days off and then a week to prepare.

 

City have had their european ban overturned and that was a big deal as the Champions League is their Holy Grail and knowing they will get additional chances at winning it, kind of lifts some of the pressure off the return leg. They have yet to go beyond the semi final stage, but are looking to make the last 8 for the third straight season

 

If we feel, as we do, that the extra week since they last played might not help Real and that City are probably the fitter of the two teams to begin with , I am sorry they just are, the demands of the PL are such that fitness level are the best in Europe and you are not asked the same questions away to Leganes that you are at say ,Southampton. Then the weather is also likely to be a factor, it will be warm and very humid at kick off, yes, even in Manchester ! City have scored 42 goals in the final 15 minutes of each half in the PL with a +27 goal difference, Real 28 and +16 respectively in La Liga, City also scored both their goals after the 79th minute in the first leg .

 

Couple of "names" missing for both, but the one that leaps off the page is the absence of captain Sergio Ramos from Zinedine Zidane's side following his red card in the first leg. He has played 124 Champions League games and you just cannot replace that kind of experience, he has also scored 13 goals from CB this season. Ramos has missed six CL games in the last two seasons, Real have lost 5 of those, including two to CSKA and they conceded three goals in four . Since March 2015, they have completed a hat-trick of Champions League titles, but have conceded 2.0 goals per game in the 13 starts the talismanic defender has sat out.

 

City are not capable of sitting on a lead, they are not solid enough defensively and that plays to their weaknesses and not strengths. They might be concerned about Real on the counter, but the visitors are scoring half as many goals on the break now as they were when doing the treble. Those numbers make interesting reading, in the treble years their La Liga stats saw (15-16) 76 goals from open play, 7 on the counter and 19 from set pieces, in 2016-17 , 72, 6, 19 and in 2017-18 , 60,3,20, the last two campaigns have seen numbers which were already falling, tumble and they have averaged 42 from open play , 2.5 on the counter and 10.5 from set pieces.

 

Penalties are not included in SP's they have remained similar, but Real are far less dangerous from open play, on the counter and from set pieces, the absence of "you know who" explains some of that, but they were already in decline before Ronaldo left for Juventus. Yes, Real are champions of Spain, but the standard there has probably fallen and the numbers indicate a steady decline and Juve, Ajax, PSG and City (in the first leg) have found them out in the last two years at the really elite level of this competition.