Tottenham Hotspur- Manchester United
Only four points between these two in the real table, but xP says that should be 17, placing United 4th and Spurs joint 12th. ITB gives the Reds a +92 edge, +24 for the last 8 starts through which Spurs have allowed the second most top flight attempts .
No team has kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League than Tottenham this season (4) and I have discussed their defensive issues and problems with and without Harry Kane multiple times .
Their offensive numbers were terrible over Christmas /New Year and at that time I wrote ..............
The Spurs total of 29 chances inside the box created in their last five is awful for any non bottom six team , let alone a Big 6 club and they have now lost Harry Kane for a significant period of time, but his and Tottenham's issues go far deeper.
Kane remains a deadly finisher when he gets the chance and fewer players hit the ball harder, or more accurately, but his XG per attempt has decreased and, the penalty spot aside, he is not having enough attempts on goal with his numbers down from six per game in 2017-18 (his golden season) to half that this time around and it is the real quality (short range) attempts that have dried up. Those from within the penalty box have decreased greatly and from inside 8 metres they have largely disappeared altogether, in 17-18 he took 42 shots (equates to 23.2 through 21 games) from that range and had an XG of 10.5, this season 4 attempts and a 0.77 XG and around the goal, he has lost over a quarter of an expected goal per game which is HUGE across 21 and/or 38 games. I do not know how much is down to the famous "ankle" and now we have hamstring issues, or because he is dropping too deep and wide trying to do too much and there are some arguments that this is/was stifling them offensively. I would not blame him for that, someone has to take responsibility and he has tried to do so on the pitch, but the lack of investment off of it is coming home to roost. Where is the back up striker, the right back (if Serge Aurier is the answer, I have no idea what the question was !), the holding midfielder (there isn't one )?
Tottenham have been pretty awful in all five league and cup starts over the holiday period, beat only Brighton (fortunately) and played one Championship and three bottom 7 teams in that sequence. Jose Mourinho has a lot of work to do in the coming months and needs the purse strings to be loosened.
Where to start ? Of course they would be better with Kane and Son Heung-min in the line up, but the offensive issues predated their injuries and I am not sure that the England captain will ever be quite the same player again and even if he is, Spurs have to change the way they play to get the best out of him and whilst they have created more chances through the last eight games, their defensive numbers have been awful. Only Aston Villa, under gung-ho head coach Dean Smith, have given up more chances inside their own box and we are only talking about league games in that regard. Bayern put 10 past Spurs in the Champions League group stage and how Leipzig managed just four in the knockout round will have to remain one of life's great mysteries ! Spurs did manage one amazing feat early in the second leg game with Red Bull, just before the first goal, they had six defenders against five Leipzig players with all 11 in the box, but not a Tottenham player within 3-4 metres of any German and I am not sure how that is even possible ! Norwich also ran them ragged for an hour or so in the FA Cup. They have won 5 of 16 starts in all competitions in 2020 and overachieved big time to compile that record, they should probably have won just one and lost 10-11 in that sequence and, with issues all over the pitch Jose Mourinho has a big task in hand and Tottenham no history of throwing money at problems and I am not sure what the short term future holds for them, but right now, it doesn't promise much .
Harry Kane and Son Heung-min return, but the former has not played since New Year and Son since mid February, he has also done his national service in the interim , only three weeks , but it sounds an experience and I doubt anyone has spent even a short period in the military without it having some effect, whether that be positive or negative .
Since his Premier League debut, Bruno Fernandes has been involved in more goals in the competition than any other Manchester United player (2 goals, 3 assists), while he has also created the most chances (11) and had the most shots (19) of any player at the club and he will be able to team up with the nation's new favourite footballer Marcus Rashford ,who has also been sidelined since mid January, for the first time.
Spurs have a lot to do to get back in the good books, everything suggests that they have played at the level of a bottom half of the table team with or without their star players and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has got them out of further trouble multiple times, post top Premier League stats. I have to favour United.
2 units Manchester United -0.5 ball 2.42 asian line/Sportmarket.
Stay safe and good luck !
