Bundesliga update .....................

Mar 25, 2020

Bundesliga:

ITB: totals through 25 rounds (teams in league table order).........

Bayern +176 (81-41) 116-45

Dortmund +61 (69-37) 67-41

Leipzig +108 (90-37) 79-52

BMG -5 (58-54) 74-78

Leverkusen +77 (55-51) 83-65

Schalke -48 (38-78) 53-72

Wolfsburg +23 (64-44) 66-65

Freiburg -21 (51-66) 77-71

TSG -42 (56-63) 68-90

Koln +24 (43-43) 82-68

Union Berlin -33 (59-50) 64-81

*Frankfurt +58 (74-44) 52-50

Hertha -40 (34-61) 64-68

Augsburg -58 (42-48) 55-73

Mainz -47 (46-63) 61-69

Fortuna -89 (32-75) 56-72

*Werder -50 (44-57) 33-65

Paderborn -94 (50-74) 57-82

Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures after that in brackets are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the six games leading up to the Christmas break, those in blue type are for the eight games played since the turn of the year.

*These teams have played just 24 games and their blue type numbers cover only seven games.

The top 7 on ITB numbers and the only teams on positive numbers are ..........

Bayern +176

Leipzig +108

Leverkusen +77

Dortmund +61

Frankfurt +58

Koln +24

Wolfsburg +23

XP puts the top 7 as a similar .......

Bayern 57 pts

Leipzig 52

Dortmund 46

BMG 46

Wolfsburg 42

Leverkusen 42

Frankfurt 37

no one else is on more than 33 points, that is Koln in 8th.

It is VERY hard to argue against these being the eight elite teams in Germany, they filled the top 7 positions in 2018-19 with Koln, who were 5th in the top flight in 2017, promoted from 2.Bundesliga.

XGD suggests that Dortmund should be +17.5 goals and not +35 , overachieving to the tune of a massive 18.5 in terms of goals scored, next biggest differential for XGF is 4.3 ! XGA says that Werder Bremen should have conceded 12.6 goals less, Freiburg pretty much the same number (12.4) more.

Bayern have a 12-1 road goal difference in the opening 15 minutes of games which is terrific even by their usual sky high standards.

Schalke have not scored a single goal, home or away in the opening 15 minutes all season.

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

I like expected goals/points, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

Good Luck.