Yesterday's clubgowi subscriber contained previews of three games, the Bundesliga stats and Sheffield Wednesday notes, you saw three of those five ( see previous posts) and PSG won 5-1. To complete the picture, I want you to take a look at the other two and how the ITB andXP stats were applied to the two DFB -Pokal games on Wednesday.

 

Leverkusen won 3-1 and Frankfurt 2-0, but that doesn't matter overly, it more about seeing how we can use all this data....................

 

 

 

 

 

Leverkusen have a +112 ITB differential over Union for the season, +37 for the 7 games since the Winter Break. Bayer have finished top 4 in 7 of the last 10 Bundesliga seasons and only outside the top 5 once, they are currently 5th , playing catch up with the teams directly above them and Champions League football has to be a priority. However, they are in sensational form, 6-1-0 in their last seven starts in all competitions, scoring 2+ in six and only coming up short in a 1-1 draw away to Leipzig was was a very good result in any case and a game they should have won. Their stats from that were incredibly good and they dominated all categories and that rarely happens when Red Bull are hosting. Leverkusen were heavily distracted by their first CL campaign in three seasons and took "just" 19 points from their first 12 Bundesliga starts , 25 from the second 12 which is top 2 level form.

 

Union were promoted to the Bundesliga for the first time last season after a decade in the second tier and have performed well ,  they are "safe" with 30 points and can give this a "go". The two teams met in Berlin 18 days ago, BL won 3-2 and it was as wide open as the scoreline suggests, infact, with 34 attempts, 24 ITB, 12 on target, 6 BC's ( five missed) , 7 saves etc, five goals was probably the minimum we should have seen. The league game here at the Bay arena ended 2-0 back in September, it was a very easy win, BL were +16 in attempts, 7-0 with those on target, scored twice early and then eased off ( it was just days after a CL game). Union have improved offensively since then and have scored 2 goals in each of their last four starts, but if Leverkusen are up for this, they should win with something to spare, despite a return to CL being their clear priority.

 

Frankfurt have a +98 seasonal differential over Bremen and on most stats are a top 6-7 team (7th last season). But they are too far behind to record more than a top half finish this time round and that should ensure that this and the Europa League are their priorities. We have seen the real Frankfurt more often since the turn of the year when they have put six past FC Salzburg, five past Leipzig ( beating them in league and cup) and thrashed Augsburg 5-0.

 

Since the foundation of the Bundesliga in 1963-64, Bremen have played all but one season in the top flight and have been champions four times, but are in real danger of missing out on another, sitting 8 points from safety, four adrift of the relegation playoff spot, they do have a game in hand, so all is not yet lost, but they are not playing well and cannot give their all tonight IMO, when they need all energies for the trip to Berlin to play Hertha at the weekend, one of the few teams they can realistically catch. Their focus will surely be on that. Werder have created a Bundesliga low 30 attempts ITB on their opponents goal in their last 7 starts, next lowest is 44 and they are just not being productive enough at present, it might be easier at Hertha who have conceded 15 in their last five, today, I can only see a comfortable home win.

 

The league meeting here ended 2-2 back in October, but Frankfurt had played in Portugal three days earlier and conceded a 92nd minute equaliser in a game they had 25 attempts, 20 ITB and created 4 BC's (missing three) and the two teams have largely gone in opposite directions subsequently.

 

Leverkusen have conceded in 7 of their 9 wins in 2020 and with Union posing more offensive threat , I think that is the way to go with the early game.

 

Frankfurt pose a big offensive threat and all four of their 2020 home wins have come by 2+ goals and with Bremen creating so little and having a more important game on Sunday, it feels like our hands are tied !

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good Luck.