Late in November I wrote about Guingamp coming to terms with life in Ligue 2 after a very shaky start following relegation last season ............

 

 

They are now up to 7th ( writing Friday afternoon) and have lost just once in six starts, they had back to back clean sheets before beating league leaders Lorient 2-1 last week and the top club had been putting up some really impressive numbers for months , but came up short last weekend.

 

I have been big on Nancy all season, but just too many draws, 15 in 24 , 10 by the same 1-1 scoreline, including the last 3, they led in each of those but just find a way to share the points and are almost waiting for opponents to equalise. Guingamp off level ball looks good, they have a +28 ITB differential for the season, +18 for the last five games. It will not surprise anyone to hear that the reverse fixture ended 1-1, but Guingamp won BC's 7-1 and I am not sure when I last saw 7 in Ligue 2, so that should give us and them confidence they can create chances today.

 

 

 

 

Guingamp won 1-0 and we went 4/5 on Ligue 2 over the two days and that highlights, I hope, the value of the ITB numbers and we cover 7 leagues statistically in similar fashion.

 

Today the clubgowi newsletter extended to five previews, with suggested bets of between 1.75 and 2.75 units, the biggest stake was for the biggest odds, I cannot share that with you one here, or even the three "middle stake" bets, but can let you have a look at the smallest......

 

 

 

OL have dominated this series winning 16 of the last 20 h2h meetings, 8 at each venue, but most of those are in the fairly distant past and since Strasbourg have returned to Ligue 1, the games between the two have been increasingly close, 2-1-2 across the last five with just a 9-8 goal difference in favour of Lyon and the sole win here for Strasbourg was on their most recent visit. Also, it is fair to say that right now ,Strasbourg are as strong as at any time in the last 40 years and current form could hardly be better. Ahead of their last away start, a trip to basement club Toulouse I noted ..............

 

Strasbourg are known as a home team, but have had plenty of road practice through recent months and have played 8 of their last 10 on the road (league and cup) and actually won 5 , scoring 15 goals, a couple of low level opponents in that sequence, but they have also won at Monaco/Bordeaux/Nantes and this is definitely easier than that trio. The visitors are out of all cup competitions now, so can focus on the league and would move top 10 with the win, maybe as high as 8th. They have not recorded a top ten finish since 2000 and that should be a target for the second half of the campaign . They won both 2019 h2h meetings scoring six goals total and creating 4 BC's in each.

 

They won that 1-0 and followed up with a 3-0 home win over Reims, Lyon have a minimal +4 ITB differential in their favour for the season, but RCS's numbers are better over the last dozen or so games and they have played three games fewer over the last 26 days. OL also have upcoming CL games with Juve (the first in 10 days) and cup semi final with PSG . Given OL's offensive reputation XGF suggest that they should have scored 8 goals less and that Strasbourg should have a 2 goal edge in that department and all things considered, I cannot agree with Lyon as a 57% favourite to win this, with Ligue 1 home wins running at sub 48%, just 46.15% if we take PSG out of the mix and that OL have won just 4/11 as host.

 

Lyon have a 14-6 home goal difference, within that they are 9-0 (!) in the first half, 5-6 after the break.