Serie A betting tip Fiorentina- Atalanta
Feb 08, 2020
Serie A :Fiorentina- Atalanta
These two met here in the Coppa Italia on January 15th and I sided with Fiorentina feeling that Atalanta had other priorities ...............
The winner of this tie will travel to Milan to play Inter in the quarter final which is not much of a "reward", but provides the most likely chance of someone crashing the Big 6 party.
Atlanta are 4th (likely to go toe to toe with Roma for the rest of the season for that final CL spot) in Serie A and XP puts only Inter above them, they are now a Champions League team and in addition to that top 4 race, have a very win-able R16 game with Valencia in five weeks time. I do not know if they need that trip to Inter interfering and definitely not a two legged Copa semi final either side of the first leg with the Spanish team. They also play Roma in the league at that time. Sometimes you have to pick your battles and for Atalanta, that has to be the CL and Serie A.
Fiorentina are struggling results wise in the league, but their numbers are good, or better than their position suggest, XP puts them five places higher and ITB stats put them 5th through 17 rounds and they have taken four points from two games subsequently. They need the win more tonight, it will give them some interest for the rest of this month and possibly beyond and help build momentum, their odds are big and they have a tremendous h2h record in this series, with a 6-4-0 record in the last ten starts as host. As good as Atalanta are, odds just feel too lopsided.
Fiorentina won 2-1, but ATL largely dominated created 4 BC's and hit the woodwork twice. Maybe (probably ?) we were fortunate, but the analysis was correct about motivation for that, however, we should see a more inspired visitor today and doubly so as they dropped home points last week against Genoa when I noted .............
Atalanta are coming off a 7-0 win at Torino and that highlights just how sensational they have been offensively this season and their numbers are simply incredible. Yes, Torino finished the game with 9 men, but Atalanta were already five up by the time of the first dismissal and 7 when the second red card was awarded.
When I updated the ITB numbers for Serie A at New Year, ATL were a net +111 for the season ( the top 3 , Inter, Juve , Lazio 71, 68, 69 respectively) and were 70-30 (created-conceded) for their last five starts. They have played four games subsequently , put up ITB individual game numbers of 15-0, 12-3, 18-9, 20-6 for those and scored 14 goals. They are +158 for the season and that gives them a +201 differential over Genoa and it is very difficult to make a strong case for the visitor even keeping this close on those numbers. XP suggests ATL should be 5 points better off , but also gives Genoa an extra 10 and says they should have scored over 7 more goals. They are coming off a 0-0 draw at Fiorentina where, to be honest, they impressed me, they launched a series of fast counter attacks ( and will obviously get the chance to do that today !) and created a number of good chances, missed a penalty and home keeper Bartlomiej Dragowski was MOTM with seven saves and it was not even close, he was awarded a player rating of 9.2, next highest was 7.8 !
That finished 2-2, but Atalanta had 24 attempts, 15 ITB , 8 on target, 4 BC's ..........more than enough to comfortably win almost any game. Last two times they dropped points to a lowly positioned opponent, they won next time out by a combined 12-0 and we can expect another reaction today.
2 units Atalanta -1 ball 2.68 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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