Premier League betting tip: West Ham United- Fulham
Feb 22, 2019
Premier League: West Ham United- Fulham
United have not played since a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace 13 days ago ahead of which I wrote ..............
Really odd season for United who have flattered at times, but been on two dire runs , they showed on Monday against Liverpool what they are capable of at times and will have Marko Arnautovic back today for the short trip to South London to face a favoured opponent. The Hammers are unbeaten in seven h2h meetings and also won their last three top flight derby games. Palace have won only 3/12 at home and scored just 8 goals here at Selhurst Park failing to score in 7, I spoke recently about them being far better suited to playing away from home ................
Crystal Palace average 1.4 goals pg away from home in the Premier League, compared to just 0.6 at home . The Eagles have scored 10 goals in their last four league games on the road and seem better able to play to their strengths when the onus is less on them to make the running.
I still think that United have top 10 + potential( see those mid season PL notes) and that they are the better of these two teams, they have been terribly unlucky with injuries, but can build on the draw against Liverpool and the loss of Palace CB James Tomkins is big, he has sat out 15 games since the start of last season and the Eagles have won just two , losing 11 .
So two "good" draws back to back to build on during the break, a large chunk of which was spent in Spain, giving management full acess to the squad for 24 hours per day. Head coach Manuel Pellegrini (pictured) spoke about how valuable this time was and important the final 12 starts of the season were, the Hammers do not have a lot to play for (a couple of league placings) , but I suspect that he feels every spot higher will give him more room for negotiation when it comes to transfer dealings this summer. He has Manuel Lanzini back in full training now after 9 months out, he might make his return tonight, but just having him on the sidelines would be a huge boost. The Irons travel to Manchester City next week, so will want the cushion of three points here and if Fulham play at tthe level of their last start, a 3-0 defeat at Craven Cottage to Manchester United, they will get them. Claudio Ranieri was subjected to several choruses of "you don't know what you're doing" there after making a couple of substitutions and his team never really looked like scoring after the opening minute or two. One goal is (almost) never going to be enough for them anyway, they have conceded 58 goals, which is 10 more than woeful Huddersfield and at the rate of 2.23 per PL game. The Tinkerman has not managed to turn them round as a defensive unit, they have conceded 2+ in each of their last seven starts and it is hard to see where that summer £100m was spent, their two Championship stars from last season, Tom Cairney and Ryan Sessegnon could have been sold for almost that amount, which is a big "swing" in terms of finances and now, both players are struggling to get more than a cameo role under Ranieri. Just 8 road goals and two points from a possible 39 for Fulham and they will leave too much space again today I feel, having to gamble for the win. In addition to the returning Lanzini , Samir Nasri is also back in contention, with Marko Arnautovic, Felipe Anderson, Andy Carroll, Chicharito, Robert Snodgrass, Michail Antonio, Lucas Perez and Grady Diangana also available, Pellegrini will have a host of exciting attacking options.
Fulham have been starting too many games slowly and playing catch up, with a terrible -19 goal difference in the opening 30 minutes of games, which includes two conceded to the Hammers inside half an hour in the reverse fixture. Both actually came between the 16th and 30th, which is when Fulham are 1-14 (scored-conceded). No late comebacks on the road as their win record suggest and they have not scored in the final 15 minutes away from CC, but have conceded 9.
United have scored 3+ goals in 4 of their five home wins, also winning four by 2+ .
1.75 units West Ham United -1 ball 2.73 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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