Brazil Serie A: Sao Paulo- Chapecoense
We had a quick look at how Serie A has gone so far this season in midweek ..........
There were only had nine rounds before the World Cup break and it felt more like a pre season tournament, games felt low key and were overshadowed by the demonstrations and the build up to the big event.
Matches only averaged 2.14 goals per game and that is way below what we normally expect at the same stage, with the last three seasons a very consistent, 2.54, 2.54. 2.56 after those nine rounds.
It is hard to predict the domestic football mood in the country at present, I suspect most people are a little out of love with the game at present, even in this football crazy country and there might need to be a major PR initiative to get interest levels up. The last thing anyone wants now, IMO , is a series of low scoring encounters and surely, it is in everyones interest for matches to be entertaining and the stats also indicate that we should expect more goals and hopefully that will be the case.
Having said that, it might need a match or two for some teams to get up to speed and this round at least, it is hard to see the bigger clubs, with stronger squads having the big advantage in midweek games we have seen and discussed many times over the last couple of seasons. However, there is a lot of football to cram in before the first week in December and that advantage should be apparent by the time we hit a rush of midweek fixtures through September and October.
Nine rounds is too small a sample for us to jump to too many conclusions, but we can surely expect the number of goals to increase for the reasons previously outlined and the fact that 32% of teams that have led at the break have gone on to drop points, despite the lack of goals, implies that games have been a little more open than the stats suggest.
I do have one "strongish" idea for Brazil tomorrow, but in terms of the restart, the weekend games will hold more interest and I do feel these matches here have the potential for very good profit over the coming months, for now, I am going to suggest just one "over" bet.
We saw a small increase in goals over the nine midweek fixtures, with an average of 2.43 per game, but can expect those numbers to continue on the increase once teams have got into their stride after the re-start.
On Thursday we spoke briefly about the battle at the top of the table (it might not be a battle for too long !).....
We were behind champions Cruzeiro pretty much from the get go last season, landed some nice bets and were fulsome in our praise for a team with an abundance of attacking options who had the title basically won with a dozen matches to play and from that stage onwards, largely picked the games in which they were going to display their talents. If they had gone flat out for 38 rounds, I am convinced they would have won the championship by at least 20 points.
That is a lot of ground for the "pack" to make up and I feel that is very unlikely to happen, they entered the break for the World Cup with a three point lead, although Sao Paulo closed that up with a road win last night and already look back on track for a convincing title defence. On a going day, they are head and shoulders above even the better Brazilian teams and have goals in them from all over the pitch, highlighted by the fact they scored 77 goals last season, with no one player contributing more than ten. Their Copa Libertadores campaign is now over and they can fully concentrate on building up a lead in Serie A and with SP closing that gap and three of their next four starts on the road, I suspect they will be focused on a win tonight and if things click, it will be an emphatic one.
Cruzeiro won that 3-1 and now Sao Paulo will again be looking to close the gap and put some pressure on the leaders who face a never easy trip to Palmeiras tomorrow.
The hosts are coming off a very comfortable 2-0 win at Bahia on Wednesday and could afford to coast for much of that after scoring both goals in the opening quarter of the game. They have named an identical squad for tonight (see below) and all who took part will surely come on for the game time and there is the option to introduce others from a very strong bench which includes Alexandre Pato and Denílson .
The vistors served us well just before the break with a pair of home wins, but now they are on the road and without a midweek fixture, will have to look to get rid of any slugishness in a very tough venue and they will be without central defender Neuton who is suspended, he was brought in from Udinese and featured in the five games and those two wins before the break. He was actually named in the squad, which was odd, as he has picked up the three yellow cards, Anyway, a loss if he misses out, but the visitors are up against it anyway.
1.5 units Sao Paulo -1.25 ball 1.94 asian line/Sportmarket.
Sao Paulo: Rogério Ceni , Denis, Alvaro Pereira, Douglas , Luis Ricardo,Antonio Carlos, Rodrigo Caio, Edson Silva , Lucão, Souza, Denilson , Hudson , Paulo Henrique Ganso, Maicon , Boschilia, Alan Kardec, Ademilson, Alexandre Pato, Osvaldo , Ewandro.
