Below is a copy of today's newsletter, which was sent to subscribers in two emails, the first this morning and the other at lunchtime, the only part I have removed relates to some prop bets on the Superbowl. Juventus have already won by that single goal (3.70) and Tottenham (2.14)  won 1-0, so a solid start to the day. Subscribers paid less that two euros for today's notes, if you don't think that is value, then you really should not be betting at all.

Sunday February 3rd

Small profit yeserday, but QPR missed a penalty and Charlton led until the 75th minute and dominated both possession and the first half, when they could have put the game to bed, so it should have been so much better.

We are overdue a little good fortune and I am hoping it comes today, when we have a hugely exciting evening in prospect, but I will save that for the follow up email, where we will talk about the later football games, the Superbowl and golf, that will be with you at 13.30 UK time.

Italy: Serie A

Chievo Verona- Juventus

An extremely clever defensive performance from Chievo last week saw them come away with all three points at Lazio last week and they have the opportunity to complete an unlikely double today, by beating the leaders. They have had a busy week since that win in the Eternal City despite not playing a game and have signed goalkeeper Samir Ujkani (19 Serie A apperances this season) from Palermo, left back Nikolaos Spyropoulos from Panathinaikos, central defender Mario Sampirisi from Genoa ( 16 apps) and another centre back in Francesco Acerbi from Milan, two of those have played Champions League football this season and they all look good defensive additions to the squad and they all make the 23 named for today.

Juve are suddenly finding life tough, they lost at the semi final stage of the Coppa Italia to Lazio in midweek and Napoli's win last night, means they only lead Serie A on goal difference albeit with this game in hand, after looking likely to run away with the title just a few weeks back. They arrive without suspended duo Leonardo Bonucci (20-0-0) and Mirko Vucinic (19-5-5), plus injured Claudio Marchisio (18-4-3) and Giorgio Chiellini (13-0-2), Kwadwo Asamoah ( 18-2-5) is still at the ACN, that leaves them short of offensive and central defensive options. Nicolas Anelka has signed and travelled, but has not played at this level for sometime, also in the squad is Andrea Pirlo (18-5-3), who is the same age as Anelka which seems odd, he has not been at his very best this year, but the Old Lady always seems happier when he is in the line up.

This is suddenly a big game for Juve and one where they need to get something from. They feel they were robbed by some decisions from the match officials last week and clearly do not like it when the boot is on the other foot ! Their protestations after the match led to the suspensions to Chiellini, Bonucci, coach Conte and also their Director of Sport.There will be a lot attention on referee Mauro Bergonzi today and I suspect pressure from the visitors, Juve have won the last four when he has been in the middle and he has sent opposing players off in the last two.

It is not all good news for the Flying Donkeys, they lost Stefano Sorrentino to Palermo in the Ujkani deal and right back Sardo (17-0-1), left back Drame (12-0-1), midfieler Luciano (12-1-3)and striker Sergio Pellissier (15-4-0) are all unavailable, the latter will be missed, as he has a good record against Juve and scored in the 1-1 draw here two seasons back. Home coach Eugenio Corini will stick with 5-3-2 and his team will sit deep and play on the counter and also look to cause problems from set pieces.

I can see two results here, a draw or narrow win for Juve, both have played one early fixture this season, Chievo losing at home to Lazio and Juve grinding out a 1-0 win at Catania in a very similar fixture, but one when they were in better shape coming into the game. I think at the odds offered we can take both.... 1.25 units Juventus to win by one goal 3.50 + there is up to 3.70 in places, you can also bet this by taking the draw on the traditional -1 handicap bet and 0.5 units the Chievo- Juve draw @ 3.94 Pinnacle/ Ibramarket ... 4.0 Betfair

Chievo : Puggioni, Ujkani, Squizzi, Andreolli, Dainelli, Cesar, Papp, Farkas, Acerbi, Sampirisi, Jokic, Frey, Spyropoulos, Guana, Cofie, Rigoni, Vacek, Seymour, Hetemaj, Paloschi, Pellissier, Théréau, Stoian.

Juventus : 1 Buffon,4 Caceres, 6 Pogba, 11 De Ceglie, 12 Giovinco, 13 Peluso, 15 Barzagli, 18 Anelka, 20 Padoin, 21 Pirlo, 23 Vidal, 24 Giaccherini, 26 Lichtsteiner, 27 Quagliarella, 30 Storari, 32 Matri, 33 Isla, 34 Rubinho, 39 Marrone.

England: Premier League : West Bromwich Albion- Tottenham Hotspur

Hosts are struggling for form at present and have not won in seven starts, collecting just two draws in that sequence, traditionally strong here at the Hawthorns, they have underperformed on home soil recently, drawing 2-2 with Aston Villa (very fortunate) and losing to poor travellers Fulham and QPR , who rested most of their starting eleven for a Cup replay, putting out pretty much the same team which conceded four at home to MK Dons in the next round. They also had the midweek embarrassment of the Peter Odemwingie (18-5-3) saga and he will not be considered for selection today, he has scored or assisted in five of their ten wins this season.

We have seen much the better of Tottenham away from White Hart Lane this season, where they have won six times, level of expectation is lower on the road and they have exceptional pace on the counter, especially through Bale, Lennon and Walker who are amongst the quickest players in the PL. Spurs have drawn their last three starts and with both Arsenal and Evertyon having closed the gap on them in the race for a top 4 place, they desperately need points today with games against both in the next few weeks. In that trio of draws, which included two away games and a visit from Manchester United, Spurs outshot their opponents by a combined 51-18 and paid the price in two, for not just a failure to take their chances, but for starting too slowly. Both Gareth Bale and coach AVB have spoken about this and their need to start matches much better, with Albion having scored just 18% of their goals in the first 30 minutes of games, this is the ideal opportunity for the visitors to get off to a flyer, or at least not be chasing early in the game. When the North London side win on the road, they usually manage a few goals, scoring three or more in four of those six wins, with Fulham and Villa having scored two here, I like the chances of the visitors also going one better, if they can get ahead Albion will gamble and Tottenham have the players to exploit the space. 1.5 units Tottenham -0.5 ball 2.14 asian line/ Ibramarket and 0.5 units Tottenham to score three or more 4.0-4.50.

The African Cup of Nations odds look about right today, we have our outright bet on the Ivory Coast, so something to cheer for and I am happy to let them pass.

I have a strong feeling that Liverpool will score a couple of goals ( over 1.5 @ 2.86 +) at Manchester City today, but find it hard to put into words why that should be the case beyond a gut instinct and as previewing matches is the whole point of the email, I will again pass on this match.

I am going to write a few words about the Milan-Udinese late game and quite a bit more about the PGA Tour event and some basic Superbowl notes .

Udinese have scored in their last ten visits to the San Siro to face Milan and in seven of nine when they have come here to play Inter, so they will be hopeful of notching at least one, if maybe not the four they managed in 2011 in an eight goal thriller. They have scored at Fiorentina, three at Roma and two on the road in three other games, they did come up short at Juventus on their last away day, but it is 16 months since they failed to score in back to back road games in Serie A. The hosts have conceded in five of their last six home starts, winning five also and that is how I think this will play out. We have Mario Balotelli's debut which will add interest, spice and any number of other impossible to predict options to the equation, although he might be on his best behaviour tonight. Lazio and Inter both have tough road matches this afternoon and Milan might have a good chance to make up ground on one or both this evening, they will be going for it with a three man strike force. 2.0 both to score looks big, 5.5 for Udinese to score twice is tempting and something they have done in two of their last three visits, but I will opt for 1.5 units "over" 2.75 goals 2.13 asian line/ Ibramarket.

Superbowl

We have a big ( HUGE) postion on the San Francisco 49ers and despite "officially" closing out a little to at least ensure a small profit, we really need them to win and if they could do so by 1-3 points that would be absolutely perfect.

I am not going to preview the game, I see no point, we have our bet(s), I feel the Niners will win, but it might easily be close,  six of the last eleven Superbowls have been decided by four points or less and eight of the Ravens regular season games (50%), were decided by a maximum of three points . If we were coming into the game cold and with no interest, I think I would favour San Franciso to win by 1-6 points at circa 4.50 and if you are not already involved, you could take a little on that.

However, the prop bet(s) that I really like involve xxxx xxxx xxxxx xxxx x

Fingers crossed ! Late night and I will be too hyped up either way to sleep straight away, so email tomorrow at 11.30 UK time.

PGA Tour: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Leaderboard:

-24 Mickelson
-18 Snedeker
-16 Harrington
-16 Moore
-15 Matteson
-14 Steele
-14 Haas
-13  4 golfers tied
-12 the field

Huge lead for Big Phil and he should win comfortably enough, we spoke recently about how five strokes can disappear quickly on the final day and it did in that tournament, but the leader had 51 players going out ahead of him and one of them was always going to put some pressure on before the leader teed off. That is unlikely today, with only a handful close enough, Mickelson is also an all time great and good front runner.

However, it is the market without him I am interested in, Brandt Snedeker has already posted a second and  third place finish this season and holding a two stroke led over the rest of the field he has rightly been made favourite without Mickelson, but I do not think he should be such big odds on. Two of the three events he has played this season have ended late and he was still at Torrey Pines on Monday and let his final round tail off just a little once it was clear he would not catch another big name runaway leader in Tiger Woods and something similar could happen today. He said in his post round interview yesterday, that he will go for it early, be aggressive and that he was not interested in second place ( nice !)......

Q. Are you kind of used to that on the TOUR? You're 18 under par and barely in the rear view mirror of the leader?
BRANDT SNEDEKER: Seems to be a common case lately between Tiger in San Diego and Dustin was playing so well at Honda. Seems every week somebody is going really low. And Scott at Palm Springs.
It's kind of the way the golf course is right now. It's in great shape, no wind. If you are a driving the ball well and rolling it well, you will make a lot of birdies. Phil is notorious for doing that when he's on a run.
Tomorrow I will need to go out tomorrow and birdie three or four of the first five or six and try and put some pressure on him.

Q. Is it almost liberating when you're five or six strokes behind? You can cut loose?
BRANDT SNEDEKER: I definitely will be a lot more aggressive tomorrow than I normally am just because 5 under par is not going to do it. I will have to go at some pins and make some putts early and be more aggressive than I probably normally would be. That's kind of the way the golf course is playing right now. You're not going to make up much ground shooting 4 under par. You need to go out there and shoot low.

Q. Did you have something in mind today that you wanted to try to shoot to try to catch up with Phil
BRANDT SNEDEKER: No, my main goal was to get in the last group, make sure I get in the last group with Phil. That way if I did get hot tomorrow and make some birdies, he could see it firsthand. That was my main goal.
Then I can't really control Phil. He's shooting 5 under again today. That's par for him. I'm going to have to go shoot a 7, 8, 9 under par tomorrow to try to do something.

Q. How crazy can you afford to get?
BRANDT SNEDEKER: Very crazy. You know, I'm not playing for 2nd. I have already had one of those this year. You play to win, and I'm going to try to win tomorrow.

I am looking at the two golfers immediately behind him,Padraig Harrington and Ryan Moore. Lets start with the Irishman, I wrote this about him last summer .....

"I am very keen on Padraig Harrington to go well this week, the two time Open winner is a fine links player and returned to the Scottish Open last year , when they moved it to a links venue. That event was shortened to 54 holes, Harrington shot all three rounds at -3 or better and finished in a tie for 14th , but just two strokes off a third place finish.  He was struggling with his game at the time and  split with his long term and I mean very long term coach Bob Torrance at that time, he needed a change and despite not winning yet, since switching to Pete Cowen, the signs are clearly there that everything is falling into place and the Irishman said recently "I don’t need the results to prove to myself that the direction I have taken is the correct one, but it is valid to say that you need wins every so often in order to ease the external pressure. Yes, a victory would be important for me. And I believe it’s coming.”

Harrington showed first real signs of a return to form with an 8th place finish at the Masters and in his last five starts, he has been 15th at the Byron Nelson, 13th in the Fed Ex St Jude, a fantastric 4th in the US Open, 11th in the Travelers and 7th in the Irish Open, an unbelievable sequence and he is convinced that the best is about to come and he has to go close this week in what is a far weaker field than which started last year.

He also has a practice coach now in Dave Alred, he also works with Luke Donald and helped him reach number one in the world and also previously with Rugby superstar Jonny Wilkinson, his job is to see that everything is done with purpose, no wasted effort or shots on the course or range, PH explains it like this ....

Q. Can you give me an example of what Dave Alred does? Seems like he's got a little thing going over there where he's assembled a nice little stable.
PADRAIG HARRINGTON: Yeah, myself and Luke and Paul McGinley. So essentially he is about discipline in your practice.
So I'm a guy who practices an awful lot, and he's about making sure-- he's not trying to tell me not to practice. He's not trying to tell me to do practice on anything more or less. It's just about creating discipline when I'm out there so that I don't-- I try and create, when I'm on the range, I try and hit every shot like it means something.
So I'm not allowed-- like a good example of that is I can't walk on to the range and warm up by hitting a shot. I have to be warmed up and hit the first shot like it's a tournament shot. So everything is just about discipline and how you go about your practice. So nothing more than that. Trying to pigeon hole, you would just call him a practice coach. He comes out and works with you at a tournament and stands there and watches you; that you don't get lazy.
My Pro-Am partner at AT&T used to always say and it was a great piece of advice, never hit a shot unless you're trying and that's exactly what Dave Alred does. So there will be no-- if I was out playing a practice round and I hit a putt up to three feet, I would pick the ball up, rather than just walk up and tap it in.
So it's either you try, or you don't. That's it. It's a little bit more about discipline in your practice. And obviously I was struggling. As I was saying, I was not converting my practice to my tournament play.  "

He didn't get the job done last year, but I think he will win again in 2013, yesterday he shot 63, it could have been even better, he went to the turn in 30 and missed a few chances coming home, he looked in good shape and is too calm a golfer, with too much money in the bank to be phased by the huge crowds here ( almost 180,000 spectators yesterday), in fact he thrives on it and was kicking footballs into the crowd at one stage.

Yesterday he said post round ...

PADRAIG HARRINGTON: It's obviously Saturday and Saturday is moving day, so, you know, it's probably the easiest day of the week to go out there, trying to play well but really no pressure not playing well.
I got a fast start, birdied four of the first five holes. Then your confidence is open. I kept creating chances from then on in. If I look back at the round, you know, it's possible I could say I had a lot of chances that I didn't take, but ultimately, you know, my game is in good shape so it's easier to be patient when your game is in good shape. You don't feel like this is your only opportunity, let's say.
Yeah, I feel like I'm in a good place with the game and looking forward to playing some golf.

Ryan Moore ended last year with a win at the Justin Timberlake event and whilst he did not get competitive in the two season openers in Hawaii, he has played ultra consistently here and is solid in contention, improving his position in 3 of the 4 occasions he started the final round inside the top five last year. He fulfills all the emotional and postive mental criteria too, having now turned 30 and becoming a father for the first time in October. He has given himself a big chance to compete for titles on a regular basis with a change to his schedule, as he explained to a Washington newspaper recently ....

With those tournaments serving as the foundation for his playing schedule, Moore is taking a new approach in 2013 by not playing more than back-to-back weeks — then taking two weeks off.
“I know I will play four out of five weeks at some points of the year,” Moore said. “But I like how this fits by having five two-week breaks in my year.”
The new approach means Moore likely will play some events he hasn’t in a while, such as after the Hyundai Tournament of Champions this week, he will fly to Honolulu to play in next week’s Sony Open — something that he has not done since his rookie year in 2006.
After that, he plans on skipping the Humana Challenge in La Quinta, Calif. — a tournament he’s played the past six seasons — and the Farmers Insurance Open just outside San Diego.
He also said he will likely play tuneup tournaments the week before the Masters, U.S. Open, British Open and PGA Championship.
“I looked at my schedule closely, and have had a top 10 at every tournament at some point in time,” Moore said. “So my schedule won’t be based necessarily by the tournament … but by the time I will have in between. That way I should stay fresh.
“It is hard not to be really excited about next year. I just am.”

In my 100% book I made Harrington 4.50 and Moore 6.0 and I am going to bet both in the "without Mickleson" market 1.25 units Padraig Harrington 5.50 + and 0.75 units Ryan Moore 8.0 + .... odds are on oddschecker and other companies will have them.

Good Luck.