Ligue 1 : Saint Etienne - Rennes
We discussed the home side briefly in midweek, ahead of their narrow loss in Turkey......
I do doubt the motivation for this competition of Saint Etienne, or rather their need to play in it, they finished just two points off Champions League pace last season and are looking to go one better this time round, they could do without the distraction of this competion and lost out at the same stage to Esbjerg last season, losing both home and away to the Danish club. They have six points after two matches in Ligue 1 and have a home match with Rennes that I am certain they will view as more important by far on Sunday and travel to face PSG after next week's return leg.
Turkish hosts Kardemir Karabukspor are in Europe for the first time and I do not doubt it is a very big deal for them , they beat vastly experienced european campaigners Rosenborg over two legs in the previous round, setting up very defensively in both. The French side claim to be interested in the Europa League and have travelled with strong squad, but saying is not doing and it just makes little sense to me. Also a 20 man squad leaves plenty of room for rotation and they do not have to win tonight to progress if that is their desire and they would have a far greater advantage in the home leg. No official bet for me, but a potential "shock".
They named a strong starting eleven, but lost 1-0, I do not feel it has any real bearing on today, the travel aside, although personally, I would have been tempted to leave one or two key players behind in France. They will surely be up for this and a three goal win would take them top of Ligue 1, that is a decent incentive, but perhaps the early advantage any victory would give them over their likely rivals for a Champions League spot will be just as valuable and a more realistic season long target. Having said that, if they do get a second goal lead today, they will probably look for that third and that helps our bet, ASSE have been scoring freely, five in their first two starts, including three after the break at home to Reims last week and eight in three home pre season games.
Rennes lost 2-0 at Lyon on Matchday 1 and then put six past Evian last week, conceded two in the process, Swedish striker Ola Toivonen scored twice and has 9 goals in 17 outings since joining in the last transfer window, Paul-Georges N'Tep also notched a brace and has 7 in 10 starts in a largely injury hit second half of last season after signing from Auxerre, he was monitored a long time by Arsenal and is probably still not off their radar, or that of other EPL teams, having only just turned 22. The visitors scored 23 road goals last season, but 14 came after Christmas and when Toivonen played they averaged 1.86 per away game, scored in each, two or more in 57%. When N'Tep played (not the same fixtures) , 1.8 gpg on the road.
I do not see Rennes sitting back today, they came up short away to a depleted Lyon side , but we can forgive them that and they are clearly a team with goals in them and will have taken confidence from last week's win. Goals for me, both to score and a winner, one way of the other, bonus is the extra value for a big home win. 1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.17 asian line/Sportmarket.
St Etienne: Ruffier, J.Moulin – Perrin, Bayal, Brison, F.Pogba, Théophile-Catherine, Nyemeck – Cohade, Lemoine, Clément, Corgnet, Diomandé – Tabanou, Erding, Hamouma, Gradel, van Wolfswinkel, Monnet-Paquet, Moll.
Rennes: Costil, Sorin – S.Moreira, Armand, Danzé, Hountondji, M’Bengue, Mexer – Pajot, Prcic, Doucouré, G.Fernandes, Konradsen – P.Henrique, Toivonen, Ntep, Hosiner, Saïd
Good Luck.
