La Liga betting preview: Real Sociedad-Sevilla

football betting tips -

I have sent subscribers to the newsletter service three English football previews for this afternoon and one La Liga selection, which you can read below. It is not lunchtime yet in my part of the world, but we are already 2 from 2 on the day, with a couple of J-League winners at odds of 2.24 and 2.62 in notes which were sent out Friday afternoon.

La Liga : Real Sociedad-Sevilla

I spoke about the visitors ahead of their opening match with Atletico Madrid ...

These are two of the favourites for third place in La Liga, all of the major contenders for the "best of the rest" title have lost key players, but I would argue that Atletico have suffered far less than the others. They lost Radamel Falcao (34-28-1) to Monaco of course, but have otherwise kept the rest of their squad intact and look to have spent the huge transfer fee received well. Atletico knew Falcao was on his way for much of last season, so could put plans in place and in the four matches he missed (all on the road), they performed well enough, averaging 1.75 points per game, which compares favourably with their average from their other away starts.They added hugely experience central defender Martín Demichelis from Malaga, very promising 20 yo Léo Baptistão who had 7 goals and 7 assists, as a secondary striker for Rayo Vallecano in his first La Liga campaign and David Villa (who has scored 253 goals for club and country from way less than 500 appearances) from Barcelona, in the summer.All three are in the squad today, along with Adrian, Garcia, Koke, Turan and Costa etc who like most of the squad, have been eyed up by big clubs all across Europe. Only real absence today is suspended fringe midfielder Tiago (22-2-0), they have a terrific squad, definitely third best in Spain and they are looking forward to a return to Champions League football.

Sevilla have had a real change of guard and sold defensive midfielder Gary Medel (32-6-3), striker Álvaro Negredo (36-25-4) and winger Jesús Navas (37-0-7) to the Premier League, these are pretty much irreplaceable and the first three names on the team sheet. Coach Unai Emery has brought in Kevin Gameiro from PSG , Carlos Bacca from Club Brugge and Vicente Iborra from Levante and they could all be good business, but combined, they cost less than the fee received for Navas alone and despite some promise shown in pre season and the Europa League, they look considerably weaker this season. Not just that, but they have had to completely change their style of football, without their width and big target man and it will be a bit of a learning curve for them. Centre back Daniel Carriço, winger José Antonio Reyes (26-4-8), right back Cicinho (27-1-2) and midfielder Piotr Trochowski are all injured and left back Fernando Navarro (35-0-1) and central defender Cala suspended.

Atletico look in much better shape than Sevilla, they came out firing on all cylinders last season (winning eight of their first nine) and will want to lay down a staement of intent post Falcao.

I was/am very pleased with that preview and there was plenty to take from it, in addition to the 3-1 win for Atletico.

Anyway I feel that Sevilla are starting to come together and whilst very much a work in progress, are worth backing at bigger odds and they showed real promise in a 3-2 defeat at Barcelona two weeks ago and arrive here boosted by a 4-1 midweek win over Vallecano and with a fit again Diego Perotti back in the squad, after missing the last three starts.Piotr Trochowski is back now too ,after being out for most of the last year and suddenly, a few more options offensively.

However, today, I am more about opposing Real,who are playing their sixth tough match of the month, with the added pressure of a first Champions League campaign in a decade and with a match at Leverkusen in midweek, where they desperately need a result. This month has been tough and in three of the previous five games they failed to score, losing the other two to Atletico and Barcelona, being given the runaround in a 4-1 defeat in the Catalan capital just four days ago. They do not have a big squad by any means and not for this constant level of competition, especially with an ever increasing injury list. Esteban Granero and Diego Ifrán are out with long term injuries, they are joined on the sidelines this evening by right back Dani Estrada and key midfielder/winger Xabi Prieto (35-9-3 last season and ever present this). I can see plenty of joy in this for Sevilla and really like the handicap start, with the host finding goals hard to come by. 1.25 units Sevilla +0.25 ball 2.07 asian line/Ibramarket.

Real Sociedad: Claudio Bravo, Zubikarai, Carlos Martínez, Mikel, Ansotegi, Iñigo, José Ángel, De la Bella,Pardo, M. Bergara, Zurutuza, Elustondo, Seferovic, Agirretxe, Chory Castro, Vela, Griezmann, Hervías.

Sevilla : Beto, Javi Varas, Figueiras, Coke, Cala, Pareja, Israel, Alberto, Iborra, Cristóforo, Rakitic, Trochowski, Rabello, Marin, Jairo, Perotti, Gameiro , Bacca.

Good Luck.

 
 
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