Saturday November 15th #1

 

Next newsletter will be sent @ 11.00 UK time today and will be a more standard look at today's later football fixtures.

 

Lower league football takes pride of place this afternoon and most companies should be trading all these games "in running".
 

 

Most teams are sixteen rounds into the new season, a shade over a third of the way through, so stats and trends are now worth a look and should carry some weight.

 

I have written a little something about all L1 and L2 games, there are three red type selections and a few blue type notes, what you do with these is, as with everything in the newsletter, is up to you. I have written them to give some idea as to how I approach a full round of games, my thought process if you like and what I am looking for "in running". There will be a lot more of these from Janauary and I will fine tune the format then, for now, they are more of a dummy run. Long term I do very well "in running" , so feel you should give them a good read when they are a regular feature, either way, once written, you are on your own !

 

League 1:

 

League 1 stats in terms of goals scored and 1X2 numbers are just about in line with historical trends.
 

Oldham Athletic - Crawley Town

 

These two are more vulnerable through the opening half when Athletic have conceded 78% of home goals and Town 62% of away goals.  Hosts are a very solid 5-1 (scored/conceded) at home over the last 30 mins, with only MKD having a better defensive record).
 

Both teams are missing key defensive players for this and despite Town striker Izale McLeod serving a one match suspension, it is easy to see early action in this game.
 

Last four Crawley road starts have averaged 2.5 first half goals, last four Athletic home starts have averaged 3.0 FH goals.
 

 

Coventry City - Notts County

 

City have conceded a league high seven goals at home between the 16th-45th minute and the long suffering Sky Blue supporters are very short on patience right now.
 

Incredibly, County have not lost a 15 minute "split" on the road all season , they are 2-2 (goals scored-conceded) through the opening 15 minutes and have won the other five. They have not conceded a road goal beween the 16th and 60th minute.

However, they are without ever present goalkeeper Roy Carroll, right back Mustapha Dumbuya , on loan winger Michael Petrasso all of whom are on international duty.That will most likley mean a start for 20 yo keeper Fabian Spiess, who has not played a league game in over a year and who has conceded a goal every 63 minutes across his 13 first team outings. With Hayden Mullins and Alan Smith injured that means that the visitors are without a host of their most experienced players in a squad which already includes a number of youngsters.
 

County are coming off what fans have described their two worst performances of the season and whilst City supporters would say something similar about their dire home defeat to Worcester in the FA Cup last weekend, they did manage to turn things around and record a win in the JPT in midweek. This could be a good time to be facing County.
 

 

Crewe Alexandra  - Chesterfield

 

Alex have scored just one second half home goal all season and conceded a league high 12 at home (20 in all games) in the first 30 minutes after the half time break.
 

Alex are 0-2-6 at home in the second half.
 

Captain and right back Matt Tootle will still be out for Alex. Chesterfield and league 1 top scorer Eoin Doyle 14 goals in 16 starts, he had drawn a blank in five before scoring two at Braintree last week in the FA Cup and I am always keen on a striker who has just ended a drought.
 

 

Doncaster Rovers - Sheffield United

 

Plenty of late road action when United play, they have scored a whopping 11 goals ( 85%) in the final 30 minutes and their games have seen a league high 11 goals through the last 15.
 

The visitors have won just one first half ( ten draws) all season and only Rovers have collected fewer points before the break. However, United are the strongest second half team in the division with 31 points and ten wins, including five on the road.
 

Only one of those Blades ten HT draws has ended up all square after 90 minutes, they have won six, lost three.
 

United's last visit to the Keepmoat saw three second half goals, with two in the last ten minutes and given those Blades stats for this season, I will again be looking for late goals
 

Rovers will be without central defender Andy Butler who has starred in two starts following his loan move from the Blades, as he cannot face his parent club, also missing is talented midfielder Dean Firman, who is on international duty, Donny have won 4 from 9 when he starts, 1 from 7 without the South African. Hosts had a very frustrating last weekend, making the eight hour round trip to Weston-super-Mare only for the match to be called off minutes before the scheduled kick off. Talking of travel, Butler's fellow central defender Luke McCullough, who has played every minute of every league game this season is in Romania with the Northern Irish squad and he is flying back this morning (!) and is hoping to start, but that is a big ask, even if, as expected, he doesn't see any game time this Friday evening.
 

United rested a host of players in midweek with this in mind and desperately need a result after a poor week on and off the pitch, the off field antics have been well documented and do not need my comment.
 

I think Clough is tactically good, but tinkers with the line up too much and has not been given much support from the the rest of this preview is only for subscribers to the newsletter service

 

Gillingham - Leyton Orient

 

Similar numbers for these two, the O's are 8-3 ( scored- conceded) on the road in the first hour ( 3-6 over the last 30 mins),  Gills mirror that, 8-5 at home before the hour mark, then a poor 1-3.  Not a game of great interest to me.
 

Port Vale - Rochdale

 

Vale start both halves sloppily at home, being 1-4 (scored-conceded) in the opening 15 mins of each, Dale are 3-2 and a fantastic 6-0 respectively, through the same periods on the road and match up very well as a result. The visitors have actually scored 11 away goals in the 30 minutes after the break, next highest in the division is 8.
 

Dale are unsurprisingly, with that record, the best second half road team in L1 with a 5-1-1 record.
 

All change at the back for Vale, Remie Streete has returned to his parent club and Richard Duffy and Ryan McGivern who have missed just two starts between them, are unavailable. This leaves them short handed in what is already a struggling backline, especially on the left flank.
 

The visitors are without suspended top scorer Ian Henderson and injured midfielder Peter Vincenti, the pair have scored 14 of Rochdale's 29 goals between them, however, they scored three against highflying Preston in their last league outing without either contributing,
 

Dale boss Keith Hill (pictured) is the rest of this preview and newsletter is only for subscribers to the full service.