Championship Playoff: Watford-Crystal Palace

Firstly, many of us are on Watford for promotion at big odds, personally I have 1.5 units at 13.9 and am placing 4.5 units on Crystal Palace @ 2.20 +, there is a fairly low limit market available on this with Ibramarket, who currently offer @ 2.33 (it has been higher). This will win me circa 15 units on Watford, or 4.5 + with Palace, this has nothing to do with how I view the game, I am just tying up a little profit.

I think that Watford are the better team and I would love to see what the Pozzo family can do in the Premier League, we have been involved in the Hornets since June 19th 2012, a 49 week commitment, so it would be great to see such a long term plan come to fruition. I do not buy into all the criticism of the Watford loan deals, they have operated within the laws of the game and if they are wrong/unfair, then change them ! As I said those eleven long months ago, the Pozzo family have a blueprint for success and to have three small clubs Udinese, Granada and Watford, all of whom were struggling when they took them over, in the top flight of three of the four biggest leagues in Europe, would be an amazing achievement and should be lauded not condemned. They do not spend big money on transfer fees, their investment is in scouting networks and the Pozzo web has discovered, or at least help blossom, talents like Nestor Sensini, Antonio Di Natale, Sulley Muntari, Alexis Sanchez, Oliver Bierhoff, Gokhan Inler, David Pizarro, Fabio Quagliarella and Vincenzo Iaquinta.

Watford coach Gianfranco Zola believes that the Pozzo's would prioritise a Premier League campaign, where there is so much money at stake (circa £63m for the team which finishes bottom next season !), over that of both Granada and parent club Udinese and if they do go up and that is true, likely odds against quotes for Watford to survive in the top flight will look very atractive, but they have to get there first.

I feel that their free flowing brand of football and 3-5-2 formation ,will be ideal for the wide open spaces of Wembley and the return to form of Matej Vydra (41-20-9 regular season) with two goals in the semi final second leg, in what I felt was an outstanding performance from the young Czech, was very timely. He had only scored once since early February and strike partner Troy Deeney (40-19-9), hugely talented Fernando Forestieri (28-8-10) and Almen Abdi (39-12-9) had all picked up the slack, to have all four in form gives Zola incredible offensive options.

Palace will again be without top scorer Glenn Murray (42-30-9), which is a massive loss, they managed to win 2-0 at Brighton in the semi final second leg in his absence, thanks to an outstanding performance from Wilfred Zola, who joins Manchester United after this match. I thought they could have some joy in that game and wrote ...These two big rivals are tied at 0-0 after the first leg and Brighton look to have all the advantages, given that they were 11-9-3 here at the Amex Stadium, including a 3-0 defeat of Palace and that the visitors lost Championship top scorer Glenn Murray (42-30-9) to injury on Friday and he will miss out this evening. However, I am not so sure and feel that at circa 1.84 the hosts are plenty short enough in a match where nerves seem sure to play a part. Also, Brighton can too often slip into negative mode for my liking, they only lost the same number of games as champions Cardiff City, but a league high 18 stalemates is far too many and if they could have won four and lost four of those, they would already be in the top flight and on vacation. If we look at that home record differently, they have not won 52% and there is a chance that their deep rooted desire not to lose, might hold them back this evening and allow Palace to play themselves into the game. The arrival of Leonardo Ulloa ( 17-9-3) from Almeria in the transfer window was fantastic business and gives Brighton far more offensive threat and they were the form team coming into the post season and should be favourites, but sub 1.90 in a Championship playoff game, is too short for me. Surely Palace boss Ian Holloway will go with both Zaha and Bolasie wide tonight and Wilbraham upfront on his own, he can hold the ball up well and get the two wingers and midfielders into the game and they have veteran but prolific Kevin Phillips as an option from the bench,even without Murray, I expect the visitors to score at some stage and that would really blow this match open.

However, a couple of things, Palace and Brighton are massive rivals and the form book kind of goes out of the window when they play, Wilbraham is no Murray and the top scorer will be missed far more today, also Holloway seems reluctant to play Bolasie, which I see as a mistake and finally, Watford kept Zaha largely quiet in the two league meetings where they scored five goals and took four points. In the early season win at Palace, the Hornets were also without Deeney( still in prison ?) and Forestieri and Vydra only played 30 minutes.

Zaha is said to be less than 100% and left back Jonathan Parr (38-0-4..... conceded 12 goals in the 8 league matches he missed) remains sidelined, striker Scott Dobbie has returned to Brighton and that,combined with Murray's injury, leaves them short of options. The win at Brighton aside, they only won one of their last eleven starts and failed to score in seven of those, Wilbraham has scored just once in 33 Championship outings ( none this season) and if they can stifle Zaha, I feel Watford, who are basically at full strength, should win this.  Obviously, I cannot bet and hope that you are in the same position, but just in case, my pick would be 1.5 units Watford -0.25 ball 2.0 asian line/Ibramarket.

Good Luck.