We are already on County outright at circa 3.25 and those notes are reproduced at the foot of the email. Obviously I am pleased with our position and hope that this time justice will be done and we will see the better and more adventurous team gets their fair reward.
 

I can see the wide open spaces of Wembley suiting the Rams , who have pace to burn on both flanks and are the best counter attacking team in the Championship, any of you who watched that semi final first leg will be only too aware of that. But they are much more than that, witness the demolition of Brighton in the return leg, when some of their football was simply breathtaking. Derby coach Steve McClaren said afterwards :"We played some wonderful football,it was a really unbelievable first goal."It must be enjoyable to watch, but not just that – it’s the work rate, and the aggression, and the togetherness, and spirit. "It’s a good combination. I’m proud of the boys."
 

McClaren will surely welcome the opportunity to return to Wembley and exorcise some of those old demons, this will be his first game at the national stadium since the (in)famous umbrella incident. At the time the ruthless UK media were already gunning for blood, McClaren didn't need to load the guns and paint a massive target on his chest/brolly !
 

He spent three months on the Rangers coaching staff earlier this season, so will be very familiar with today's opponent and has Player of the Year, Craig Bryson available to return in midfield after missing the second leg against Brighton. That might mean Will Hughes, who scored the very classy first goal (LINK) and who seems certain to be playing top flight football next season in any case, with a whole host of big clubs tracking him, steeping down to the bench, which gives some indication of the options County have.
 

There has been talk of Benoit Assou-Ekotto starting for QPR which would be a huge error IMO and is the defensive weakness I spoke of below, whether or not he plays, I favour County with the width of the pitch (Wembley is almost identical in terms of size to Pride Park) but both three metres longer and wider than Loftus Road, suiting them so much better, especially if BAE plays , as that is a lot of space for him to go "missing" in.
 

1.25 units Derby County -0.25 ball 2.00 asian line/Ibramarket would be my pick, but if you are already on them outright there is little need to bet again.
 

Good Luck.

Championship Playoffs: Brighton- Derby County (written May 8th)

 

I am putting up an outright selection for the playoffs today, but only want to touch briefly upon the other two teams, Wigan Athletic and QPR, as I will be previewing their game tomorrow. I feel that the Athletic squad is very strong and if they had made the managerial change earlier in the season, they might well have claimed second place, their huge knockout competion and Wembley experience will also stand them in good stead, especially if they make it to the Playoff Final. However, they have had a really gruelling campaign and tomorrow will be their 61st match of the campaign, which is ten more than Derby County for example, six more since the turn of the year. Rangers have a defensive weakness (IMO) that I have discussed once or twice previously and we will doubtless do so again tomorrow.
 

Derby are another team who made an early season managerial change, sacking Nigel Clough who did a tremendous job on limited resources and built this team which former England boss steve McClaren almost took into an automatic promotion place. Since he took charge at the end of September, the Rams are 22-7-8 and would have probably have hit 92 points + if he had a full season at the helm. Clough did very little wrong and they play a largely similar style under McClaren but are far more direct once they get into their opponents half of the field. This has resulted in a lot of goals, a Championship high 84 , with 38 of them and 11 wins, coming on the road. Brighton play a largely similar style ( at least in their own half), but just do it a little bit slower and do not pose the same offensive threat as County, with the South Coast team having to rely on Leonardo Ulloa who is the focus of so much of what they do offensively.
 

I know that County were very keen to play Brighton, in as much as you have to play someone, they feel they match up well and that the home side( first leg) do not pose as much of a physical threat as the other two teams, especially Wigan. The Rams also did the double over the Seagulls in regular season play and were able to rest many of their starters at Elland Road on Saturday, whereas Brighton had a must win game at Forest, where they could not let up for a single second. County ended the season in good form , winning five in a row, before the draw with Leeds United, when they had both eyes on this fixture and they also have a little history on their side.
 

The last three teams to finish third with more than 80 points have all gone on to win the Playoffs, including County in 06/07, to have reached that total (85 points) you have pretty much had to play well all season and the odd, short term blip aside, County have and their points haul would have seen them promoted automatically in four of the last seven seasons.

 

Brighton coach Oscar Garcia has almost no post season experience and will most likely be without at least a couple of senior players in right back Bruni and midfielders Andrew Crofts and Dale Stephens, since his move from Charlton , Stephens has missed three home games, from which they have collected just a single point and lost 2-0 to both Ipswich Town and Middlesbrough. Bruni sat out County's 2-1 win here early season, with Chris Martin (44-20-10) scoring both goals following assists/crosses from wide positions and either he, or Stephens will be missed, that goes double for both.
 

Huge options for McClaren who has pretty much a full squad to pick from and six regulars, fresh, rested and hungry after being given Saturday off.
 

I like County to win this over two legs and prefer to bet them outright to win the playoffs, but if Bruni and Stephens both miss out, I will probably also take something small on the visitors to win tonight.