This is effectively a dead rubber, after PSG won 4-0 in Germany doing us a favour in the process, ahead of that game I wrote ....
Long term readers know that I am a fan of PSG and I feel they will go very close in the Champions League this season, unusually, I want to reproduce some notes from the league match with Marseille back in October.....
"Absolutely no love lost between these two clubs and this is far and away the hottest derby in French football. The hosts would love to win this, three points would take them up above the Parisians and into second place, but they just look a level below both PSG and Monaco and although most teams will come away pointless from Dortmund, the level and manner of the 3-0 midweek defeat and earlier home loss to Arsenal, is a clear indication of where they stand in the bigger European picture. Borussia played at a very high tempo and the furious pace never allowed OM to catch breath, let alone get into the match, that seems sure to have taken a toll, maybe mentally more than physically.
Matters were probably not helped when they saw their hated rival cruise past Benfica, who made a European final last year, racing into a 3-0 lead inside 30 minutes and easing home. Such was their level of dominance that PSG boss Laurent Blanc changed his team around completely with 20 minutes remaining and experimented with 4-4-2, with Edinson Cavani moving into his preferred central position. That is the kind of thing you might do in league game if 3-0 up at home, not in the Champions League against quality opposition and is a sign of how confident PSG are right now, they are clearly starting to fire on all cylinders after a sluggish star to their season.
Almost all their stars are back now, just Thiago Silva remains sidelined and such is the array of talent available to Blanc that he cannot even find a spot in the squad, let alone the bench, for Jérémy Ménez (42-8-10 last season in all comps and who would walk into any other starting eleven in France). In addition to the two Champions League defeats, OM also lost at home to Monaco and they keep coming up just short in all their big games. Zlatan had been in something of a drought ( two goals in nine PSG starts) by his own incredibly high standards before his brace in midweek, you know I love a striker in form and he will be up for this today, he scored three against OM last season, including twice in this fixture and I have seen 7.0-8.5 for him to repeat that feat and score 2+ today, which is tempting. The hosts do get André-Pierre Gignac back today, he has sat out the last three with a toe injury and I suspect, if this had been anyone else, he would not have been named today either, a sign of how big this match is. Left back Jérémy Morel again misses out and OM have lost 8 of the last 13 matches he has missed and we are talking about a team who have lost just 19% of starts (16/84) over the last two and a bit seasons. The visitors are a much stronger group, are better in the big games and should be fresher after what was little more than a training exercise for 45 minutes against Benfica."
I highlighted the relevant part of those notes, they dominated a decent Benfica side, one very experienced in European terms, albeit weaker than last season and I think we will only really see the best of PSG in the bigger games. I feel they will want to put down a marker tonight and use the game to illustrate how strong they are. Edinson Cavani is missing along with right back Christophe Jallet, but that has been the case for several weeks and this is exactly the game that PSG have been protecting their other right back Gregory van der Wiel for, something we have discussed several times.
Leverkusen have lost form at the wrong time and have lost five of their last seven in all competitions, they are without suspended midfielder Emre Can (26-2-5 all comps), this compounds the likely loss of defensive midfielder Stefan Reinartz and leaves them short of options in areas where the visitors are their strongest.
I see quite a gulf in class and to lose at this stage of the competition would be a total disaster for PSG, whereas it is almost expected of Bayer. Away win.
Normally I would be loathe to bet a team giving up a big handicap start in a match they did not need to win. However, like in the first leg and as we saw from Atletico last night, PSG are a team looking to establish themselves at the very highest level and every performance is the chance to improve,learn something and perhaps more importantly, throw down a marker to the more established major European clubs. PSG have an eight point lead at the top of Ligue 1 and will be able to coast to the title there and I do not think they will be overly concerned about the upcoming domestic fixture. They could not name a significantly weakened line up tonight, even if they wanted to , as their squad is just so strong ( 200m euros worth of talent sidelined in the first meeting) and with Jallet back they do not have to protect van der Wiel who has a night off and Edinson Cavani returns too and will want to get in on the fun, after missing the reverse fixture, he has scored in 4 of his 5 Champions League starts this season.
We spoke yesterday about the standard of the Bundesliga and the 13 goals Bayer have conceded to Manchester United and PSG in three starts, two at home. We also touched upon the pragmatic approach German clubs tend to take to games, they know this is lost and I wonder how much resistance there will be once they fall behind, especially with a trip to Bayern Munich on Saturday, a game which will surely be their priority this week and Bayer are not strong enough to compete with two of Europe's strongest teams inside three days.
1.75 units PSG -1.25 goals 2.02 asian line/Ibramarket.
Good Luck.
