Milan are guaranteed to stay in second place with the win, hard to know what they think about how this season has played out, they looked sure to be involved in a title race at this stage and they were still top of the table in February. The last team they would have wanted to be champions elect was Inter, but a return to Champions League football as seems likely will be most welcome and second place would give them a great platform to build from next season. Probably time to put regrets to one side now and focus on the positives and after a bit of a blip, they do seem to have done that with 10 points from their last four starts. However, they seem increasingly vulnerable defensively at the back and they have kept just a single clean sheet in all starts and that was away to Verona, who's home day woes we discussed yesterday.
It feels like a long time again now, but early post lockdown we picked up on some fantastic stats for Sassuolo and were able to bet them week after week at big odds and milked their offensive prowess to a remarkable extent and a lot of profit. However, all good things have to end some time and either their form tailed off, or the opposition worked them out and their levels dropped a little around the turn of the year and ahead of a trip to Bergamo to play Atalanta in the first round of 2021 games I wrote .........
This was the fixture last season which started all the Sassuolo hoop la and made them newsletter darlings for so long. They caught my eye by creating 7 BC's on the road to Atalanta, whose own numbers were just sensational at the time and what happened after is well documented. All journeys have to begin with a single step and that heralded the start of a wonderful run and as you can see above, they have played almost as well as Juventus subsequently and did so playing thrilling offensive football. But all journeys have to end sometime too and I wrote recently about teams possibly finding Sassuolo out now and when I updated the Serie A stats, their ITB stats shocked me. They have tumbled to bottom 6 level after posting 27-70 for the last 5 starts, that is about as bad as it gets. 27 created is the third lowest, below only Crotone and Genoa and 70 conceded is 14 more than anyone else and 39 more than any of the other top 7 teams, 52 more than Atalanta ! It means the home side are a net +68 over Sassuolo in the last five games alone and that is a scary number.
Atalanta have produced Serie A best numbers over the last three seasons combined and have also thrilled us with their adventurous play, not only domestically, but in Europe where they have now become a serious player. Those Serie A numbers had dropped a little this season, but have started to pick up again now that they can concentrate on the league for the time being. Despite giving up those 7 BC's in this fixture back in June, they still won the game 4-1 and have taken the last four h2h games as hosts with Sassuolo scoring in each, in fact, the visitors have scored on their last 8 visits to Bergamo. How about more of the same, home win and BTS.
Even when they are not playing well Sassuolo seem to favour us and that played out well with Atalanta winning 5-1 .
The following weekend Sassuolo travelled to Turin to play Juventus and I updated with ...... they (Sassuolo) did win in midweek , but 2-1 at home to lowly Genoa and it was quite hard work. They remain in sixth and are decent and pose a goal threat, but not enough right now to stop the Old Lady from winning. 3-1 feels about right.
Final score was indeed 3-1 to Juve and Sassuolo are the team who have continued to give to us and with both hands !
They have not featured much in my notes subsequently, but they remain top 9, seem certain to finish 8th or 9th and appear to have refound that goal touch. Their last 10 starts have totalled 35 goals and includes a 2-2 draw with Roma and 3-3 stalemate with Napoli, scoring 2+ goals in 5 of their last 7 , they do not fear anyone and have no pressure on them in the league, so no reason why they will enter the San Siro feeling they have anything to lose and they can enjoy the occasion. They drew 3-3 here last season post lockdown and to be honest, something similar would not surprise me at all .
That finished 2-1 , but Sassuolo had 71% possession, won more total attempts, on target and ITB and completed an incredible 95% of a whopping 848 passes. I don't think you will ever see better passing numbers in Serie A and to put those up away to the team about to be crowned champions has to be very worthy of note .
Sassuolo have scored in 13/14 starts (which mirrors the ACM numbers) and in 10/11 on the road, they are pretty much guaranteed 8th placed now having won both starts since the Inter game as they are 7 points above Verona with this game in hand, yet 9 adrift of Roma. We can view that two ways, one that they have relatively little to play for, or secondly, that they are playing really well and are under absolutely no pressure .
Sometimes we have to just bite the bullet and be brave , Sassuolo have collected almost as many road points (24) as Milan have at home ( 26) and the hosts have also scored the fewest home goals amongst the top 7 and won just 3 times in 2021.
Milan to win and both teams to score is a tempting 3.10 given that Milan always concede , Sassuolo always score and the hosts' need is great, but on this occasion I see the best value with ....................
2 units Sassuolo level ball 3.82 asian line.
