These two clubs met here at Villa Park in the League Cup just over three weeks ago.....

 

Villa are 4th in the EPL and in their first Champions League campaign for 42 years where they are in a strong position to progress and that is going to mean an additional 10+ games, at least five on the road in Europe. I would argue they do not need involvement in this competition too. The club, supporters and Unai Emery might see things differently, but Villa made an early exit from this competition last season in a similar fixture ( home to Everton) and in R4 of the FA Cup and I do not feel too many tears will be shed were they to fall short this evening. They travel to London to play Tottenham, a direct top 4 rival on Sunday, then to Belgium to play club Brugge three days later and to Anfield to face Liverpool three days after that! Palace have had a poor season, but registered their first win of the season over Spurs at the weekend and whilst they are still in trouble, just 2 points above the drop zone and have a six pointer with Wolves up next in the league, now that they have won, I feel they will want to try and build some momentum.

 

Palace won that 2-1, then shared the points in a 2-2 draw with Wolves, where they might have scored 4-5 goals, before losing 2-0 at home to in-form Fulham, where they missed 4 BC's, a result which left the Eagles back in trouble and with Daichi Kamada suspended after his dismissal for a very late tackle. I am not one to say I told you so, but I told you so (!) and following an early season game at Brentford I wrote ....... He (Oliver Glasner) has insisted on playing Daichi Kamada, a player he clearly requested, as they were together at Frankfurt, but he looks well off the pace ,he should have been booked three times at Brentford and usually arrives about 30 seconds after the ball departs!

 

Villa are struggling, perhaps for the first time under Unai Emery ........

 

26-Oct-2024	PL (9)	Aston Villa	1-1	Bournemouth
30-Oct-2024	LC (r4)	Aston Villa	1-2	Crystal Palace
03-Nov-2024	PL (10)	Tottenham Hotspur	4-1	Aston Villa
06-Nov-2024	CL (r1gr4)	Club Brugge	1-0	Aston Villa
09-Nov-2024	PL (11)	Liverpool	2-0	Aston Villa

 

One draw and three goals in five games is very un-Villa like, but the loss at Anfield was extremely flattering to Liverpool ( see preview of their trip to Southampton below) and Emery was probably pleased to have the international break to work with at least some of his team and to get back to basics.

 

I will be a little shocked if there is not a reaction from Villa and they are 7-0-0 next time out in the EPL after an extended break (9+ days), scoring 2+ goals in each, but also conceding in six, one of those was a 3-1 win in this very fixture last season. The hosts have also conceded in 14 of 16 EPL home starts, giving up 2+ goals in 10 (62.5%) .

 

That makes a heavy trend betting option with ........... 2.5 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.15 asian line.

 

 

Good luck!