US Masters ..........

Apr 06, 2023
football betting tips -
US Masters :
 
Second only to any Brentford away game I am lucky enough to get to, the US Masters is just about my single favourite event of the sporting calendar.

It is the only major played at the same course every year, Augusta National is at least as famous as the players who have tasted victory here and the holes are as familiar to television viewers as any in world golf. It is a real horses for courses venue and whilst it takes a while to learn, once a golfer has played well here once, he tends to do so again. However, there is a lot of pressure and demands on the defending champion and in the last 50 years, only two players have won back to back titles, Tiger Woods in 2002 and he was not playing the same game as anyone else at that time and Nick Faldo in 1990. Jordan Spieth went mighty close in 2016, but ultimately came up short and it is a very tall order for anyone to win twice, let alone do so in consecutive years and only Woods ,Bubba Watson and Phil Mickelson have won a second or third (or more in the case of Tiger) since 2005 . Short priced golfers, who are under a hugely increased spotlight here, also do not win that often, at least in recent years and 12 of the last 16 winners have started at 20-1 +.  For Rory, the Masters has become something of an obsession, sometimes you can want something too much and I do not think that is either healthy ,or conducive to getting the job done .
 

We have a limited field of 88 players, 7 of whom have lifetime exemption as previous winners, but pretty much all of them would not be strong enough nowadays to play four rounds at this level, or probably even two in some cases, the exception is now 65yo, They are also seven amateur golfers, no amateur has even made the cut in the last two years and none has finished top 15 since 2005, or top ten since 1962! There are 16 debutants who traditionally struggle (no rookie has won since 1979) and most spend the first couple of appearances at Augusta just getting used to surroundings, which seem, almost from another era and a course that they have grown up watching and dreaming about playing. So, the list of potential winners is far shorter than for any other major and most golf events and that offers good value and opportunities.
 
In terms of an identikit winner, we are looking for someone under 40yo , who is world ranked top 30, has a top 10 at Augusta to his name and has played here 3+ times, hits it a long way, can take advantage of the Par 5's which are real scoring opportunities and who has already finished top 3 in a tournament this season, priced somewhere north of 20-1 ! The player pulling on the green jacket on Sunday doesn't have to fit that profile, but he is more likely to than not.  
 

Stroke Averages at Augusta National


Average .... (Rounds)

 
  1. Aaron Wise – 70.25, 4 rounds
  2. Will Zalatoris – 70.5, 8 rounds
  3. Scottie Scheffler – 70.58, 12 rounds
  4. Jordan Spieth – 70.71, 34 rounds
  5. Jon Rahm – 70.75, 24 rounds
  6. Tiger Woods – 71.05, 94 rounds
  7. Tony Finau – 71.2, 20 rounds
  8. Dustin Johnson – 71.3, 44 rounds
  9. Phil Mickelson – 71.35, 110 rounds
  10. Rory McIlroy – 71.38, 52 rounds
  11. Cameron Smith – 71.38, 24 rounds
  12. Corey Conners – 71.39, 18 rounds
  13. Xander Schauffele – 71.39, 18 rounds
  14. Justin Thomas – 71.54, 28 rounds
  15. Hideki Matsuyama – 71.55, 42 rounds
  16. Cameron Champ – 71.58, 12 rounds
  17. Collin Morikawa – 71.58, 12 rounds
  18. Jason Day - 71.70, 37 rounds
  19. Sungjae Im – 71.70, 10 rounds
  20. Brooks Koepka – 71.71, 24 rounds
  21. Keith Mitchell - 71.75, 4 rounds
  22. Justin Rose – 71.81, 64 rounds
  23. Abraham Ancer – 72.0, 10 rounds
  24. Viktor Hovland – 72.08, 12 rounds
  25. Patrick Reed – 72.09, 32 rounds
  26. Tommy Fleetwood – 72.14, 22 rounds
  27. Bubba Watson – 72.15, 54 rounds
  28. Fred Couples – 72.27, 134 rounds
  29. Louis Oosthuizen – 72.31, 45 rounds
  30. Charl Schwartzel – 72.34, 44 rounds
 
I want someone on that list, a golfer who ticks most of the identikit boxes and who has played Augusta well more often than not. I have eliminated those in blue type as they have not played enough, are too "old" (apologies!) , do not have that high 2023 finish to their name, or an Augusta top 10,  are defending champion, or priced too low. I have also "eliminated" the LIV golfers who will be teeing up alongside PGA professionals for the first time this year, it feels like they are under increased pressure ,in an unfavourable spotlight and having played too little tournament golf .
 
I whittled that list down to five for subscribers which I previewed and finally to three, with betting suggestions for that trio. 
 
Good luck!

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