Both teams served us very well in the R16 second leg games, Ajax with that famous win in the Bernabeu .............
Not a great last week for Real, two losses at the Bernabeu to Barcelona, conceding four goals without scoring , leaving them out of the Copa del Rey and seemingly booked for third in La Liga. It will doubtless be all about the Champions League again from here on in , where they are looking for a 4th straight title which would be like a knife into Barce hearts and would mean that a repeat of the five wins between 1956 and 1960 when the game was VERY different, was on the cards, something which has long claimed to be impossible. No one even repeated between 1990 and 2017. Anyway, Real look good to progress with a 2-1 first leg lead and teams with that advantage from an away game have a 100% progression record at the knock out stage since the competition was renamed.
Real have conceded in 12 of 15 home CL starts, multigoals in six of those and won "just" 66.7%.
Ajax have scored in 12/13 away CL starts, including at Barcelona, PSG and Bayern (this season) , they almost always have huge travelling support, probably 5,000 tonight and that ensures they give of their best for 90 minutes and a lot of those goals have come late, including in the Catalan capital and Paris when those games were all but lost, so the visitors are highly unlikely to throw the towel in should they concede a goal or two. They are a second half team anyway, with 11 of 12 competition goals coming after the break .
Following the win in Amsterdam, Real lost at home to Girona 2-1 after taking a 1-0 lead into the half time break and they have shipped 7 SH goals in five starts, three of which came here at the Bernabeu. Sergio Ramos is suspended for the home side, he has sat out three games this season, two CL matches versus CSKA which they lost by a combined 4-0 and a 2-1 defeat of Levante where their opponent missed a couple of big chances and hit the woodwork twice. They also lost 3-1 at home to Juventus last season (should have been a bigger loss) in his absence.
Easy to see a goal or two in this for Ajax and odds for two or more for the visitor in the second half at circa 5.50 appeal and are far from a forlorn hope given how this is likely to play out. I will be looking at these goal markets in play, but I think I will "officially" keep this simple and go with .......
Somethimes a plan does work out and Ajax won 4-1 and did indeed find two of those goals in the second half !
A week later Juve hosted Atletico Madrid looking to overturn a two goal road defeat..................
Atletico hold a 2-0 from the first leg and look in good shape to qualify, but know that Juve will come at them and the visitors might need an away goal to get this over the line.
Few who watched it will forget the Old Lady's comeback from losing 3-0 at home to Real Madrid, to level the tie on aggregate in Spain before conceding a late, late penalty, that was a game in which they could /should have scored five goals in and that was when Real were good ! Amongst those watching would have been Atletico and they will know only half the job is done.
All the damage was done late in the first leg, we looked headed for 0-0, before Atleti scored twice in the final 12 minutes. Juve created plenty of chances there, but were misfiring in front of goal and of Cristiano Ronaldo's 7 attempts, none were on target and you just "know" he has a part to play this evening. Juve had 64% possession in the Estadio Wanda Metropolitano and whilst that means little in modern football, it does highlight just how much of the ball they are likely to see tonight. Ronaldo's powers are on the wane, but he lives for and is made for night's like these and, not just in Madrid, but all CL games he has been getting chances and is averaging circa 6 attempts and his 6.6 pg average for Juve (all starts) is more than in his last two seasons at Real. Sorry to keep on about him, but CR is really integral to how this is likely to play out, he is more of a team player now (believe that or not !) and his competition passing stats are highest ever and he has been drawing players out of position and creating space for Paulo Dybala and Mario Mandzukic. I like Juve to win and with the one goal handicap, that is what they need to take this to overtime or progress and has the bonus of Atletico not overly worrying about losing by two as long as they themselves score, so 3-1 or 4-2 will suit us or them, but not Juve !
The Old Lady won 3-0 with the old superstar scoring a hat-trick ! As I said, those/ these are the type of games he lives for and was bought to Turin to play in and to try and bring a Champions League title to the Juve boardroom. However, he has not played since that game, not one minute, only sitting on the bench once, I "knew" he would be "fit" for tonight, if he had a leg in plaster and a walking stick, he would probably have said he was good to go, but I doubt he is, but some game time tonight will set him up for next week and I guess player and club know that. Key defender Giorgio Chiellini misses out with a calf strain, while Emre Can also stays behind with an ankle issue.Juve have named three cental defenders in their squad, but played with a left back in the middle of that defensive three at the weekend and options are limited, so I assume it means Andrea Barzagli who is about to enter his 39th year and has played just 225 minutes of football this season will play, or someone out of position.
Ajax are in their best form of the seaon, albeit in a very weak league, have scored 35 goals in 10 starts and are top of Eredivisie for the first time in over 1,000 days. Next week's second leg might have a very different look, but tonight I like the home side at these odds.
Ajax created the better chances and scored another six goals at the weekend in Eredivisie and given that and the fearless way they attacked Real and their road competition scoring record, it is easy to see them scoring in Turin and they will need to if they are to progress. Ronaldo scored in the first leg, but was rested at the weekend for tonight and it is a little worry that he has only played those 90 minutes in the last month. Giorgio Chiellini, Martin Caceres, Emre Can, and Douglas Costa are all set to miss out for Juve through injury, while Blaise Matuidi is a doubt after leaving the field early during the first leg, however, like City below, this season is almost all about the CL for Juve and my thinking is that they will ultimately find a way to edge home.