Tough week for Augsburg ..........
Oct 22, 2022
Bundesliga: Augsburg-RB Leipzig
This is a quick turnaround against two of Bundesliga's best for Augsburg after their midweek 5-2 cup loss to Bayern ahead of which I wrote ............
I have spoken several times in the past about Bayern having long memories and not forgetting any loss (they are pretty rare) or slight and they do not need to think back long to recall the Bundesliga loss here in Augsburg 32 days ago. The home side won 1-0 and created some good chances, but Bayern had four BC's and over 2.0 xGF and on most other days would have scored twice at least. The Bavarian giants have notched 20 goals in five subsequent starts, Augsburg have gone 1-1-1 in three games since that famous win, both scoring and conceding six goals, and two of their last four starts have seen both teams create 2.10 xGF and they have been "having a go" which is not what we traditionally expect from them. I suspect that most of the credit for that goes to head coach Enrico Maaßen who arrived in the summer from the Dortmund U23 team which is a solid grounding and when he signed, sporting director Stefan Reuter commented:"In extensive and impressive talks, he expressed a clear vision of modern football that fits here at Augsburg and with our team. We're convinced he'll develop the team with an exciting brand of football, together with his human qualities. We're delighted he chose Augsburg over many other options for his next step."
Augsburg have taken 10 of their 13 points from their last five starts and the new head coach appears to have got his ideas across now and that is of a more offensive nature. I expect Bayern to win and 3-1 or 4-1 will be my pick, the visitors' last 16 road Bundesliga victories have seen them concede in 10 , scoring 4+ in nine , with 4-1 the most common scoreline (three times). In the DFB Pokal, against fellow top flight opposition, their last 8 away wins have seen them concede in 7, score 3+ in six, with three games ending with a 3-1 scoreline. Bayern are without Sadio Mane and Manuel Neuer tonight, since the 19/20 season the veteran goalkeeper has sat out 13 games versus Bundesliga or Champions League opposition and Bayern have kept just two clean sheets , conceding 18 goals total.
Bayern missed 5 BC's and had, wait for it, 26 attempts ITB, which is unbelievable for the road team in any game against a team from the same league. As that suggests, Augsburg also saw very little of the ball and were chasing shadows for 90 + minutes, they did rotate a little, but had eight starters from the previous league game and will have played Sunday/Wednesday/Saturday which is far from normal for them, have already conceded 8 this week (it should have been 10 +) and must be running on empty. However, they did score twice in each and I spoke above about how they are much more offensive minded now. Leipzig have won their last three, scoring more each time ....2-3-4 goals and ahead of the first, a trip to Celtic in the Champions League, I touched upon some likely upcoming improvement from RBL........
Celtic play in the Champions League pretty much every season and have a fairly solid home record and of course, they get amazing support at Celtic Park. However (and you probably guessed that was coming), it feels like they have a bit of an inferiority complex against elite European teams and they are 0-1-8 since 2013 against teams from the top 5 Euro leagues, with a 4-24 goal difference. They have only scored in two (three goals came in the sole draw) and they conceded 2+ in 8 and 3+ in five , including in a 3-0 defeat to Real Madrid last month where they also gave up 5 BC's. Celtic lost 3-1 in Leipzig last week (2.52-0.97 xG, 4-1 BC's. 13-8 ITB) and created next to nothing in that contest after the break once RBL had taken charge. Don't be fooled by Leipzig's 11th place in the Bundesliga, they are 3rd on all expected numbers and started similarly slowly last season ,11th in December before averaging 2.0 points and 2.35 (0.95 conceded) across their final 20 starts to claim 4th place and a Champions League spot and they will be expecting similar this time round. Celtic have a nasty habit of making errors against the bigger teams and despite having great competition experience as a club, this is a group who have played little on the biggest stage prior to this season. Away win.
Easy to see goals for the visitors and Augsburg are also likely to play their part in a high scoring encounter.
2 units RB Leipzig -1.5 ball 2.58 asian line.
1 unit RB Leipzig to win and both teams to score 3.19 asian line.
Good luck!
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