Tonight's Europa League games.........
May 06, 2021
Europa League :
AS Roma- Manchester United
Arsenal- Villarreal
Alead of last week's first legs I wrote ............
United are the only one of these four who are going to qualify for the Champions League next season through their domestic placing, the others can only do so by winning this competition.
Arsenal have performed better on the road this season, especially in the Europa League and I touched upon that ahead of their quarter final second leg game in Prague two weeks ago .............
I sided with Sparta in both knockout stage legs with Rangers and notes on each are within the second leg notes which are reproduced at the foot of this email. They won 2-0 in Glasgow and also performed with credit at the Emirates in a 1-1 draw last week, but the Gunners were wasteful, missing three of the four BC's they created and the game came just days after a humbling at the hands of Liverpool and they were probably still recovering from that. This time they are coming off a 3-0 away win, it might only have been at Sheffield United , but this time they converted all 3 BC's, so was a professional performance and with this game so big to Arsenal, I am expecting them to get the job done and possibly with a little to spare. The Gunners have won 5/6 on the road in the Europa League, scoring a whopping 14 goals and if we extend that to two years, it is 12 starts, 8 wins and 26 goals. Arsenal are dealing with quite a few injuries and they were going to make a decision on both Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Martin Odegaard after Wednesday training. Most supporters seem to be happy enough to play without PEA right now in any case. It looks like Saka and Smith-Rowe are both good to go, but really there can be no excuses as the game is "must win". Homefield advantage is not as great this season, far from it and Sparta and Arsenal have both performed better on the road.
The Gunners won that 4-0 and now their season is purely about getting to the Europa League final and claiming the star prize.
Villarreal have also been better on the road and in this competition and they have scored in 18/19 Europa League ties, their head coach Unai Emery was Mike Arteta's predecessor at Arsenal and both will have extra incentive to win this. Arsenal have conceded in 14/18 EL ties and scored in 14 straight on the road. I think both to score this evening seems very likely and when the dust has settled, an Arsenal win.
Roma have scored in their last five away starts, 2+ goals in 5/7 including in that 3-2 loss at Cagliari we previewed last weekend. They have won 5/6 road starts in this competition and scored exactly 2 goals in each, including in a fine 2-1 win at Ajax in the quarter finals. United have been held here at Old Trafford by Sociedad and Milan (1-1) and the second of those will give Roma heart, as will the fact that the Reds have really struggled in the semi finals of tournaments under OGS, losing at that stage in the League Cup/FA Cup and Europa League last season and again in the League Cup this season.
I went with both teams to score in each game and United won 6-2 and Villarreal 2-1.
Roma's season has fallen around their ears in recent weeks, they have lost touch with the Champions League /European places in the league and put all their eggs into their Europa League semi final with Manchester United. That looked to be going fine when they led 2-1 at half time at Old Trafford on Thursday, but it ended in a 6-2 loss and it is difficult to see what remains for them in 20/21 and they would probably like their season to end now.
However, the events in Manchester on Sunday, which saw crowd protests against the Super League but also and mainly the United owners , ended in battles with the police at both the stadium, where supporters got onto the pitch and into the dressing room and the team hotel in the city centre, have handed Roma an advantage for the upcoming game. That forced the match to be postponed and the team were left stranded and unable to leave their hotel all day , young fit men , primed to play one of their biggest rivals, being forced to stay inside a hotel for 30-36 hours is far from ideal and the events have also been mentally disruptive.
Roma also announced a new head coach for next season in build up, with Jose Mourinho not being out of work long following his sacking from Tottenham. His standing is still high in Italy and it will be viewed as a big signing and boost for the club and if nothing else, it has taken Roma from being slated on the back pages of local newspapers to making front page news. I do expect a reaction of some sort from the Wolves and with the tie won, United might be far more interested in the game at Villa Park on Sunday.
Arsenal scored their vital away goal last week at 2-0 down and with ten men on the pitch, after Dani Caballos was dismissed, they dominated the second half even when a man short and once they had scored and Villa were also reduced to 10 men, an equaliser seemed likely, but it never came and this second leg is finely poised. It seems sure to provide entertainment, with Arsenal always likely to make things difficult for themselves and Villarreal have scored 30 goals in their 13 Europa League games and only the top 3 in La Liga have scored more and only Barcelona and Real more on the road. But this is the Gunners biggest game of the season and one they have to find a way to win, the return of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is very timely and he will provide fresh legs and a hungry approach over the last month of the campaign.
EPL sides meet in the Champions League final and Arsenal can make it all by setting up their decider with United and the English sides have "owned" La Liga opposition this season with United beating Sociedad (4-0 on aggregate) , Granada (4-0) and Chelsea seeing off Real (3-1), Sevilla (4-0) and Atletico (3-0).
I expect both teams to score at the Emirates but the Gunners to do enough to progress ...........3-1 .
Despite their second half capitulation at Old Trafford, Roma did score twice and have notched 15 goals in their last five competition home starts, they have no real distractions until the derby game with Lazio in two weeks time and should want to impress Mourinho who will be watching somewhere whilst counting his millions !
1 unit AS Roma level ball 3.02 asian line.
2 units Arsenal -1 ball 2.61 asian line.
1.5 units double both teams to score in both games 2.50 general quote.
Good luck !
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