Three rounds left to play in Brazil ............
Nov 29, 2023
Brazil Serie A:
Pos | Team | Pld | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Qualification or relegation |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Palmeiras | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 58 | 32 | +26 | 63 | Qualification for Copa Libertadores group stage |
2 | Flamengo | 35 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 54 | 37 | +17 | 63 | |
3 | Botafogo | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 33 | +23 | 62 | |
4 | Atlético Mineiro | 35 | 17 | 9 | 9 | 46 | 27 | +19 | 60 | |
5 | Grêmio | 35 | 18 | 5 | 12 | 57 | 53 | +4 | 59 | Qualification for Copa Libertadores second stage |
6 | Red Bull Bragantino | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 46 | 31 | +15 | 59 | |
7 | Fluminense (Q) | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 46 | 43 | +3 | 53 | Qualification for Copa Libertadores group stage[a] |
8 | Athletico Paranaense | 35 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 47 | 39 | +8 | 52 | Qualification for Copa Sudamericana group stage |
9 | Cuiabá | 35 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 35 | +1 | 48 | |
10 | São Paulo (Q) | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 37 | 36 | +1 | 47 | Qualification for Copa Libertadores group stage[b] |
11 | Corinthians | 36 | 11 | 14 | 11 | 44 | 46 | −2 | 47 | Qualification for Copa Sudamericana group stage |
12 | Internacional | 35 | 12 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 43 | −4 | 46 | |
13 | Fortaleza | 35 | 12 | 9 | 14 | 40 | 42 | −2 | 45 | |
14 | Cruzeiro | 35 | 11 | 11 | 13 | 33 | 30 | +3 | 44 | |
15 | Santos | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 38 | 56 | −18 | 43 | |
16 | Vasco da Gama | 36 | 11 | 9 | 16 | 39 | 49 | −10 | 42 | |
17 | Bahia | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 44 | 48 | −4 | 41 | Relegation to Campeonato Brasileiro Série B |
18 | Goiás | 35 | 8 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 50 | −16 | 35 | |
19 | Coritiba (R) | 35 | 8 | 5 | 22 | 40 | 69 | −29 | 29 | |
20 | América Mineiro (R) | 35 | 4 | 9 | 22 | 39 | 74 | −35 | 21 |
Rules for classification: 1) points; 2) wins; 3) goal difference; 4) goals scored.
Coritiba and America are already relegated.
Fluminense and Sao Paulo have already qualified for the Copa Libertadores group stage by winning other competitions.
Vasco lost 4-2 at home to Corinthians last night despite leading twice and are back in real trouble. Every other team has three games left to play.
Today's fixtures are ......
Santos- Fluminense
Flamengo- Atletico Mineiro
Bahia- Sao Paulo
Coritiba - Botafogo
Palmeiras- América Mineiro
Cuiabá - Internacional
The three remaining R36 fixtures will be played tomorrow.
Flu and SP have nothing much to play for although the latter do need a point or two to be 100% safe, but it seems unlikely they will need them. They travel to Bahia who would move above Vasco with the draw and travel to América at the weekend, a fixture they are obviously happy with, so that draw is a possibility and I doubt they will be too adventurous late tonight if the scores are level. That draw odds have shortened a little since Vasco lost for obvious reasons.
No one has told Fluminense they have nothing at stake and they have taken 8 points from four unbeaten games since they won the Copa Libertadores which is just greedy! Santos are in even better form , unbeaten in seven (four draws),conceding just four goals and are traditionally strong at home , whilst Flu have lost 11 road games, the visitors might also not lose too much sleep over rivals Vasco being relegated. Home win probably, but not sure it offers too much value.
Botafogo are still in the title race and looking at the league table and this fixture, casual followers might be astounded to see odds of almost 1.80 for them to win, but they held a double digit lead at the top of the table last month(!) and have subsequently been in freefall. They are winless in eight games, conceding 16 goals (just 17 in 27 games previously!) five of which have been at home and four against bottom 9 opposition. Coritiba are still playing with spirit and have scored five in their last three games, two wins and a 2-1 loss away to Fluminense.
Palmeiras looks a banker as three wins will give them the title and a good chance that all three opponents will have nothing to play for. They are defending champions and know how to get over the line, but have done things the hard way multiple times this month in games at Botafogo, Flamengo and Fortaleza, those were all on the road, but they do have that "make life difficult vibe" in them. At home they have won their last four without conceding, by a combined 11-0, but they actually lost the two prior to that and conceded twice in each. America have been facing relegation for a long time, but look better than 21 points suggests and they were top 10 in the last two seasons and xP gives them 35-36 points. They also "always" score on the road, or at least in the last 13 games ,six draws and seven defeats, playing 5 of the top 8 in that sequence.
Flamengo (unbeaten in 5)-CAM (unbeaten in 7) is a doozy, two top teams in good form, surely both going for the win and with so much at stake. Fla have won the last three h2h meetings (two here in Rio), but xP only places them 10th and their odds feel very skinny.
Cuiabá and Inter should be safe and are just really looking to secure a Copa Sudamericana spot, but that will be a disappointment for the visitors who have finished 2nd in two of the last three seasons and who played Copa Libertadores this year, for Cuiabá it is very different. They only returned to active status as a club in 2009, they come from a State where there has been very little top flight interest, but since the reform they have had continued success. Promoted several times they made it to Serie B in 2019 and to A two years later, finishing 16th and 15th. So Sudamericana and top 10 would be huge and no reason to see them letting their focus drop. They are unbeaten in four, conceding just one goal and three of those were on the road and they are looking to do the double over Inter and we sided with them at big odds in the reverse fixture, which they won 2-1 .........
The hosts are winless and scoreless in four games, they are the third lowest scorers this season and some issues from last season have clearly come home to roost. Cuiaba have taken 10 points from the same four game period and only leaders Botafogo have collected more away points.
In my preseason note these teams both got a mention as having over/underached respectively in terms of goals conceded and scored ..........
Other standout numbers came with Internacional, as their xGA saw them give up 57 and not 31 goals and Cuiaba, who should have scored 19 more, conceding an extra 21, which is a 40 goal shortfall in their fixtures, more than a goal per game.
Inter have averaged just 0.95 xGF per home game this season and are just not creating enough when the onus is on them to make the running and hard to see how they can be priced at odds on to win today.
Those preseason notes I just referenced were very good by the way, beyond good really ( see below), of the two teams about whom I gave a word of warning ,one is seven points from safety and will be relegated, the other tumbled from 2nd to a current 11th . Regarding those expected to improve, three are top 6 and will play Copa Libertadores and the other was 16th last year and is 9th this morning.
I put up two strong bets at good odds from the six games but will have to keep those for subscribers.
Good luck!
Written in May
Just as we did with J-League 1, we can look at the teams who over or underachieved in relation to xP and xGD last season. Those who played significantly better than their points tally were ........
Flamengo.......should have had an additional 12 points and scored 18 more goals.
Bragantino...........an extra 14 points and 10 goals scored.
Atletico -MG ..... an additional 21 points and 23 goals.
These all make sense as Bragantino were in just their 3rd season in the top flight and were dealing with a debut Copa Libertadores campaign after 53 points in 2020 and 56 for 6th place in 2021, so putting them on 58 instead of 44 is easily explained.
Similarly so with Flamengo, who were 2nd with 71 points in 2021 and champions in both 2020 and 2019, with a whopping 91 points in the latter. CAM were champions with 84 points in 2021.
We should definitely be looking for the trio to step up in 2023.
Overachievers that stayed up were not in such plentiful supply at least by such wide margins, apart from one and that that was Goias who were an absolutely massive 28 points above where they should have been (20th) , xGA also saw them giving up an additional 24 goals ,a league high 77. They were promoted in 2021 and fortunate to survive.
Other standout numbers came with Internacional, as their xGA saw them give up 57 and not 31 goals and Cuiaba, who should have scored 19 more, conceding an extra 21, which is a 40 goal shortfall in their fixtures, more than a goal per game.
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