Taken from today's newsletter ...........
Apr 25, 2024
The notes below formed just part of today's subscriber newsletter and highlight the quality that, IMO, the daily email service provides pretty much 365 days per year!
Premier League:
Four of the five EPL suggestions won last night (odds between 2.01 and 3.50) and good results all round for our two remaining long term bets, Bournemouth to finish top half and Arsenal to win the league and both are now trading at circa 2.70.
The Cherries are actually 10th and the truth is that if they had won even one of those opening nine games (through which they claimed just three draws), they would have been odds on now and give them two wins and they would be in the race for top 6 and that is basically the level they have played at through the last 25 games, which is two thirds of the season.
Those original notes are reproduced at the foot of this email and like almost all of our long term bets, they were on the money.
Arsenal were put up at the best value outright pick at odds of 6.0 in a race we narrowed down to them, City and Liverpool (not as obvious then, as it seems now) and the trio have battled it out for eight months. Jurgen Klopp's men look to have run out of steam and blown it now and it appears to be a two horse race and we do indeed have the value.
Brighton- Manchester City
| 2023/24 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 26 | +56 | 77 | WWLW | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 15 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 39 | 11 | ||
| 2 | Liverpool | 34 | 22 | 8 | 4 | 75 | 34 | +41 | 74 | LWLX | 17 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 43 | 15 | 17 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 19 | ||
| 3 | Manchester City | 32 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 76 | 32 | +44 | 73 | WWWO | 17 | 12 | 5 | 0 | 43 | 14 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 33 | 18 | ||
| 4 | Aston Villa | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 71 | 50 | +21 | 66 | WWXL | 17 | 12 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 23 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 28 | 27 | ||
| 5 | Tottenham Hotspur | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 65 | 49 | +16 | 60 | LWXW | 16 | 12 | 0 | 4 | 34 | 21 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 31 | 28 | ||
| 6 | Manchester United | 33 | 16 | 5 | 12 | 51 | 50 | +1 | 53 | WXXL | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 26 | ||
| 7 | Newcastle United | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 69 | 54 | +15 | 50 | LWWX | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 34 | ||
| 8 | West Ham United | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 63 | -9 | 48 | LLWX | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 25 | 17 | 7 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 38 | ||
| 9 | Chelsea | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 61 | 57 | +4 | 47 | LWXW | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 32 | ||
| 10 | Bournemouth | 34 | 12 | 9 | 13 | 49 | 60 | -11 | 45 | WLXL | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 26 | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 34 | ||
| 11 | Brighton & HA | 32 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 52 | 50 | +2 | 44 | XLOL | 15 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 28 | 19 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 24 | 31 | ||
| 12 | Wolves | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 43 | LLXL | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 23 | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 28 | ||
| 13 | Fulham | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 42 | LWLL | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 35 | ||
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 56 | -12 | 39 | WWWL | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 28 | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 30 | ||
| 15 | Brentford | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 35 | WWXO | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 27 | 30 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 25 | 29 | ||
| 16 | Everton1 | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 33 | WWLW | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 30 | ||
| 17 | Nottingham Forest2 | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 60 | -18 | 26 | LXLW | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 35 | ||
| 18 | Luton Town | 34 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 47 | 75 | -28 | 25 | LLWL | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 25 | 32 | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 43 | ||
| 19 | Burnley | 34 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 23 | WXLX | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 37 | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | ||
| 20 | Sheffield United | 34 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 33 | 92 | -59 | 16 | LLLX | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 18 | 51 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 41 | ||
| 1 | Everton (-8) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Nottingham Forest (-4) |
|||||||||||||||||||||||
Tonight's game has big repercussions in both bets, Brighton are one of what looks like five teams battling for two top 10 spots and a point would take them up to 10th, a win possibly above Chelsea.
A point would see City move above Liverpool and into second ,but would leave them three behind the Gunners with a game in hand, but a vastly inferior goal difference (11 goals). A win and matters are in their own hands.
I have thought long and hard about this and do not have a clue what is best for our long term bets, there are two spots up for grabs with regard to top 10 and there can be only one league champion, but the payout is almost double for Bournemouth! Round and round we go, where she stops, no one knows!
So, on it's merits, Brighton will be fresher of the two, as they have not played in 12 days and this is just their 4th start of the month, it will be City's 7th. They include two hugely disappointing games with Real Madrid, which resulted in elimination and as I have said multiple times, I believe that competition was their top priority for this season. They have played once subsequently, that 1-0 win over Chelsea on Saturday in the FA Cup semi final, but the Blues were denied a clear penalty and missed a whole host of chances, I will not single out the main culprit, suffice to say, they need a striker! Chelsea hardly franked that form line either, with a 5-0 defeat to Arsenal on Tuesday. I do not know if that win exorcised that CL hangover, it might have done, but it was definitely there at Wembley.
The Seagulls form has also tailed off and they have won just 4 of their last 17 EPL games and have only scored 5 goals in their last 10 starts in all competitions. They are 20 goals worse off than at this time last season ( scored 10 fewer, conceded 10 more) and a combination of selling too many players , albeit for HUGE fees and injuries have caught up with them and maybe, they have also been a little worked out now. I saw them earlier this month at Brentford in a 0-0 draw and was not overly impressed, they were a poor imitation of the team who played with gay abandon and as a relentless offensive force exactly 12 months ago and I am more than a little sad about that. Their two subsequent starts have seen them lose 3-0 at home to the Gunners and draw 1-1 at Burnley, at Turf Moor they lost xG by almost a goal and BC's 3-0.
Their treatment room remains crowded, Encisco is a major doubt this evening, whilst Gilmour/Lamptey/Milner/Mitoma/
H2h wise, the six top flight meetings have played out 1-1-4 with a 6-18 goal difference, the hosts have taken their four points from the last three meetings, but those two games were both played in May and when City had already won the title, so, under very different circumstances. When City have come to the AmEx needing the win they have claimed it and by 2+ goals each time.
If someone twisted my arm to bet , it would have to be 1.75 units Manchester City -1.5 ball 2.08 asian line.
The last two times that City won here they were a combined 5-0 up at half time ( 3-0 and 2-0) so that is an option too and -1 ball 2.96 in FH betting makes some appeal.
Good luck!
Written July 28th
Bournemouth
The Cherries were favourites with everyone for the drop last season, their first back in the top flight and with a pretty much Championship level squad at best, not much changed in that regard after they lost 9-0 early at Anfield and manager Scott Parker was dismissed and replaced by Gary O'Neill. Firstly on an interim basis, he later got the job full time and guided Bournemouth to 15th place, playing very well at times and pretty much securing safety with 5-6 weeks of the season remaining, way beyond expectations. His reward, the sack!
He was Immediately replaced by Andoni Iraola who had allowed his contract at Rayo Vallecano to expire and who was being courted by a number of clubs. Owner Bill Foley said: It wasn’t about Gary, it was about a different opportunity."We just felt that to be as successful as we believe we can be in the transfer market and we are going to change the style of football that we played, then we needed to go a different direction."I don't feel good about it, I don't feel happy about having someone move on from a position within our club."It was not just my decision, it was a decision made by football management and we all separately came to the same conclusion. "So it was a unanimous decision amongst us all and I don't want to be viewed as one of these owners that fires people and goes on and fires them again."That is not our plan. Our plan is to go with this coach and give him every opportunity to be successful."If it means that we are relegated at the end of the season because of a mistake, then I will live with it. That is reality."
That highlighted line feels very important, so let's see what they change and who they bring in. Iraola comes from Gipuzkoa, a tiny province in the north of Spain, just 2,000 sq km, yet he is the 4th current EPL head coach to hail from there, along with Arteta, Emery and Lopetegui, which is just crazy! He is a student, an intelligent man, very into his analytics, playing with relentless pressure, a high block and incredibly offensive desire. I loved this quote which I think came from one of his Rayo players, Andoni doesn't park the bus, he takes it on a wild ride!
Hard not to feel compassion for GON, but this feels like the right appointment and Bournemouth had to act fast, or risk losing their man.
I feel genuinely excited by the prospect of watching Bournemouth and how Iraola attacks the EPL, in La Liga, Xavi said Rayo were the "biggest pain in the arse in La Liga".They had the three players with the most high-intensity sprints in Spain, they were #3 for time spent in the opposition half, 2nd for balls into the box, number one for long (and completed long) passes, 4th for chances created. Iraola said he likes to create organised chaos.
Bournemouth have signed AM Hamed Junior Traore from Sassuolo ( so we already like him!). LB Milos Kerkez from AZ, RM Roman Faivre (Lyon), Justin Kluivert (Roma) and goalkeeper Ionut Radu on loan from Inter.
The Cherries did well last season, but where they were weak, is where Vallecano and Iraola were strongest. I watched their second preseason game the other day and the pressing was already not just intense, but high quality, with 5-6 players not in the final third, but in and around the box when the opposition looked to play short and then again in midfield. I see them as a potential big improver and likely to catch a lot of teams out in the early season.
Let's be brave !
3 units Bournemouth to finish in the top half 9.0 general quote................. they need to find an extra 10-11 points to have a chance and I feel that is doable and well priced.
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