Setting the scene for the return of French football.....

Aug 16, 2024
football betting tips -
 
France Ligue 2 :2024/25
 
Last season's table......
 
2023/24 Overall Home Away
P W D L F A Gdf Pts Form P W D L F A P W D L F A
  1   Auxerre 38 21 11 6 72 36 +36 74 WOWW 19 12 5 2 39 14 19 9 6 4 33 22
  2   Angers 38 20 8 10 56 42 +14 68 OWWL 19 13 4 2 31 15 19 7 4 8 25 27
  3   Saint-Étienne 38 19 8 11 48 31 +17 65 LXXW 19 10 4 5 24 14 19 9 4 6 24 17
  4   Rodez 38 16 12 10 62 51 +11 60 WXLW 19 10 6 3 35 22 19 6 6 7 27 29
  5   Paris FC 38 16 11 11 49 42 +7 59 XWLW 19 10 4 5 29 19 19 6 7 6 20 23
  6   Caen 38 17 7 14 51 45 +6 58 WXWL 19 11 3 5 25 12 19 6 4 9 26 33
  7   Laval 38 15 10 13 40 45 -5 55 WLLW 19 6 5 8 19 27 19 9 5 5 21 18
  8   Amiens 38 12 17 9 36 36 +0 53 WOWO 19 5 10 4 17 16 19 7 7 5 19 20
  9   Guingamp 38 13 12 13 44 40 +4 51 LLXW 19 5 7 7 24 21 19 8 5 6 20 19
  10   Pau 38 13 12 13 60 57 +3 51 LLLL 19 7 6 6 32 27 19 6 6 7 28 30
  11   Grenoble 38 13 12 13 43 44 -1 51 LWWL 19 7 7 5 23 21 19 6 5 8 20 23
  12   Bordeaux1 38 14 9 15 50 52 -2 50 WLWL 19 10 5 4 31 19 19 4 4 11 19 33
  13   Bastia2 38 14 9 15 44 48 -4 50 XWLL 19 8 5 6 22 23 19 6 4 9 22 25
  14   Annecy 38 12 10 16 49 50 -1 46 XLWW 19 5 6 8 22 27 19 7 4 8 27 23
  15   AC Ajaccio 38 12 10 16 35 46 -11 46 LLLX 19 10 6 3 26 14 19 2 4 13 9 32
  16   Dunkerque 38 12 10 16 36 52 -16 46 OXWL 19 4 4 11 15 30 19 8 6 5 21 22
  17   Troyes 37 9 14 14 42 49 -7 41 XWOX 18 7 4 7 28 25 19 2 10 7 14 24
  18   Quevilly-Rouen 38 7 17 14 51 55 -4 38 WLLX 19 4 7 8 24 27 19 3 10 6 27 28
  19   Concarneau 38 10 8 20 39 57 -18 38 LWLL 19 5 5 9 23 31 19 5 3 11 16 26
  20   Valenciennes 37 5 11 21 25 54 -29 26 LWWW 19 4 6 9 15 24 18 1 5 12 10 30
1 Bordeaux (-1)
2 Bastia (-1)
 
Auxerre, Angers were promoted back to Ligue 1 at the first attempt, St Etienne joined them after two seasons in the second tier wilderness.
 
Metz, Lorient and Clermont dropped down.
 
Troyes, QRM, Concarneau and Valenciennes were originally relegated and replaced by just Red Star and Martigues with the league reduced to 18 teams.
 
But wait, Ajaccio and Bordeaux were demoted due to financial issues . Ajaccio won their appeal, Bordeaux decided not to contest it, entered administration and they will start in tier FOUR this season, they are said to be appealing that second demotion and want to play at level 3, but it is getting very late in the day for that now. This is the same Bordeaux who finished 12th in Ligue 1 just three years ago, won the title in 2008/09, reached the Champions League quarter finals the following season and won the Coupe de France in 2012-13. They attracted average attendances of over 21,000 last season(which would have placed them 12th in the top tier and is three times more than 12 clubs managed in L2) whilst struggling in Ligue 2 and it is a crying shame for supporters that it has come to this. 
 
One man's loss is another man's gain and Troyes earned a reprieve and will replace Bordeaux in L2 this season.
 
Of the 13 teams who return and who are highlighted in the table in blue type. Annecy and Guingamp were a respective +9 and +7 for xP, the three promoted clubs were the ones who overachieved in relation to actual points gained and to a high level, so Rodez, Paris FC and Caen who all came in above that trio for expected numbers and all actually placed top 6, can perhaps consider themselves a little unlucky. Rodez had a great season on miniscule attendances (second lowest) and joint second lowest budget and that might be tough to replicate. Paris FC had a slow start and played at second place level from Week 13 onwards, they have a big budget and sponsorships, but low gates considering where they are based and in relation to their ambitions. 
 
Caen had a mid-table budget, down 20% from 22/23, despite which, they performed almost identically and attracted the 3rd highest attendances. They were in Ligue 1 for five seasons until 2018/19 and have been knocking on the door for a return, finishing 7-5-6 in the last three campaigns. The big news for them is that Kylian Mbappe has taken over as majority shareholder of the club, whom he came close to signing for as a youth. He has acquired 80% of the shares through Coalition Capital, the investment entity of his company Interconnected Ventures. Coalition Capital now replaces U.S. investment fund Oaktree as majority shareholder. No figure has been "released officially," but French media reports put the acquisition fee at circa $21.6M. Mbappe's "close friend" and Interconnected Ventures CEO Ziad Hammoud will take over as chairman of the club.
 
Of the promoted duo, Red Star have been relegated in their last two seasons at this level ( 16/17 and 18/19), Martigues are playing second tier football for the first time in 22 years and have spent much of that at lower levels and were only promoted back to National in 2021/22. Their head coach Thierry Laurey knows this league well and with great success, he spent two recent seasons at Paris FC finishing 5th and 7th and he led Gazelec Ajaccio to consecutive promotions from National to Ligue 1 and RC Strasbourg to the L2 title in 16/17 and the Coupe de la Ligue two seasons later. Martigues finished above some really big name clubs last season including Dijon, Nancy, Nimes and Sochaux and have made some ambitious appointments this summer, with Pierre Wantiez leaving as President of Sochaux (whom he returned to to help rescue) to take on the same role with Martigues. They are extremely defensively solid and have an experienced if not veteran core, their 36 yo keeper is key to them in transition and their midfielders Oualid Orinel and Karim Tlili are both 34yo, but have contributed to 41 goals (27 and 14 assists) in the last two campaigns. They have strengthened the defence in this window, they lost top scorer Amine Hemia to Guingamp, but share the goals around in any case and are very fluid offensively. Anyway, quite interesting to see how they do.
 
What is success for a promoted team ? Answers in one word on the back of a postage stamp, that's right! Survival! The last six seasons have seen 14 teams promoted, four were relegated, average league placing was 15.71 and no one finished higher than 9th and only two outside the bottom 7.
 
Looking at the relegated teams. Metz have, rather incredibly, played four seasons in Ligue 2 over the last decade and been promoted each time, twice as champions and if there is a team in world football less concerned about relegation than them, I would be amazed! Clermont had an amazing 22/23 in Ligue 1 finishing 8th, their three seasons in the top flight was a great adventure, but always overachieving on low budgets and in a predominantly rugby playing area was never going to be easy, but they usually contend in L2. Lorient have spent three seasons in L2 in the last decade (7-6-1) winning the title in 2019/20 and finishing 10th in L1 in 22/23. They gave themselves a chance of survival last season after a  sluggish start, but blew it by taking just 7 points from their final 12 games, despite a 5-0 demolition of Clermont on the final day of the campaign. XP agrees the trio were the three worst teams in L1, so they can have few complaints.
 
How have the relegated teams done? The last five seasons have seen 13 teams come down, three were promoted, six finished top 6, the other 7 were placed between 8-17, so a very mixed bag and it is not unheard of for a second relegation campaign to follow another. 
 
Second half of the season winners and losers amongst the 13. That same trio Rodez (33 points) , Paris FC (32), Caen (32) all played at 3rd place level and were joined by Dunkerque (33) and we can return to them shortly.  At the other end of the scale, Ajaccio (16 points) and Grenoble (17) were awful after the midway point, playing at 17th place level, not much better were Pau (20), Laval (21) and Troyes (21) all good for 17th. I can give an honourable mention to Annecy and Bastia (4th in 22/23) who both picked up 8 more points in the second half of the campaign than they did in the first.
 
Pau and that big drop off of points in the second half of the campaign interest me, as does the fact that they had three strikers who contributed 35 of their 60 goals, the top two have been sold and the other is 37 yo! They also have a head coach who always looks like he is about to fall asleep at any moment, but that might just be me! However, we can hold fire for one week, they travel to Clermont this week about whom I have some concerns and Pau have been ok in pre season and scoring goals, which is a surprise.
 
I went on to discuss two teams in detail, including one who have been totally torn apart this off season and need a rebuild, putting up two suggested bets for today's games. It is still not too late to join clubgowi for the season ahead and at reduced rates, see the previous post.
 
Good luck!
 
 
 

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Country: 
France
Sport: 
Football
Competition: 
French Ligue 2

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