Serie A betting tip: Fiorentina- Sassuolo
Jul 01, 2020
Fiorentina- Sassuolo
Fiorentina's last home game was a visit from basement club Brescia .......
Fiorentina have a net seasonal +185 ITB advantage over Brescia and are +45 for the last eight games, through which the basement club have created very few attempts ITB on goal. Brescia are nine points from safety and have won just four times all season (losing 18) and it is tough to make a case for them putting in a survival bid, or even being good enough to do so. All they have is a need and they will have to gamble and look for maximum points in all games, but nothing in any of their statistics to indicate that they are capable of going toe toe toe with anyone or that they can keep things tight and try to steal a goal on the break. Fiorentina are almost certainly the best bottom half of the table team, ranking 9th for xP and 8th for ITB, they are not yet safe from relegation fears, but a couple of wins should ensure their safety and after that I suspect they will look at a top ten finish, having been top 8 in six of the last seven seasons. On paper it is easy to see one of those wins coming today .
Brescia have lost 12/13 starts against teams with positive ITB numbers , but have scored in 8 of those and 9 of those defeats came by exactly one goal. Now things get further complicated, Fiorentina have conceded in 21 of 28 home games and their last three wins have all been by a single goal, but most incredible of all,is that in that sequence (28 games) they have actually won just four a 14.29% win rate and do we really want to get involved in a team winning 1/7 as host across a 20 month period regardless of quality of opposition ? 50% (14) of those games have been draws.
We went with BTS and it finished 1-1, the hosts created plenty of chances, but only two of real note and that record of just four wins in 29 starts as host is not just poor, it is criminal ! Such runs are also very difficult to get out of, the issues become deep rooted and manifest themselves as soon as the opposition score or equalise , or if a goal doesn't come early. Anyway , a large red warning sign should be flashing over Fiorentina as host and we should be very wary of them at present. CB Martín Cáceres (lost last three, conceding six that he has sat out) and forward Dušan Vlahović (six goals, one assist.......only won once in 18 starts without a goal from him) will also be suspended for Fiorentina and this is another issue, ill discipline, they have finished with ten men in four of their last five starts and quite a lot seems wrong at the Stadio Artemio Franchi and head coach Giuseppe Iachini who has switched between 4-3-3 and 5-3-2 in his last two starts and was himself suspended in the latter, looks on borrowed time .
Sassuolo boss Roberto de Zerbi (pictured) has been heavily touted as his replacement , but has just signed an extension at his current club and whilst you can never say never in Italian football, that now seems unlikely and who can blame him. as there is an awful lot of work to be done in Florence. His own team have made the notes several times recently and they are very good offensively, they attack quickly, with all their wide players happy to cut in and lots of vertical passing patterns with an understanding of where teammates will be, which is much rarer than it should be !
Ahead of their last away game, a trip to Inter, I noted ................
Sassuolo created 7 BC's at Atalanta last weekend, the game was over when almost all occurred but if nothing else it tells us they will not lie down at even at 0-3 early in a game and that when they throw caution to the wind they can create chances and they don't really have any relegation concerns, so no pressure on them to get a result today. That is all on Inter who need the win to stay in the title race a little longer but they have kept just 2 clean sheets in 14 starts, including conceding in 8 straight home games.
Sassuolo have scored 5 goals in four unbeaten trips to the San Siro to play Inter and lost the reverse fixture by the odd goal in seven and again they refused to lay down after trailing 4-1 with 20 minutes remaining and almost salvaged a point. It is very easy to like their attitude.
I think both will score, but odds of circa 1.8 are below my minimum.
Inter to win and BTS is 2.90 and looks ok and I have bet something small on that, but I do feel the real value might be "in running" with Sassuolo goal markets, especially if Inter are ahead by a goal or two.
That played out well , 2-1 to Inter at HT and 3-3 at the final whistle, unfortunately they did not beat Verona on Sunday, but again shared six goals and that means 10 scored in four games, including road trips to two of the top four and 14 BC's in that quartet of starts is eye catching. They "beat" Verona in terms of attempts on goal 20-7, on target 9-3, ITB 12-4, saves 0-6 (!) and corner kicks 12-2 and posted some hugely impressive passing stats.
1.25 units Sassuolo level ball 2.71 asian line/Sportmarket.
1.25 units Sassuolo to score "over" 1.5 goals 2.50-2.625 general quote..............if this is unavailable to you I would suggest betting a little more on the level ball option.
Sassuolo have scored 43.75% of all their goals after the 61st minute, which is when Fiorentina have conceded 48.72% of theirs, The visitors have scored five goals after the 78th in their last three starts, including three in injury time.
Stay safe and good luck !