Premier League without the Big 6 and how to use XG

Nov 10, 2018

Sample previews and stats.

Included in Tuesday's newsletter were two previews you might find of interest...........

#1 looked at a League 1 game, it is worthy of note because it highlights what is available in a standard preview, I had spoken Walsall as possibly on the slide a while back , they had lost just1/8 starts at the time, but have been defeated in 5/8 subsequently. I also looked at XG and spoke about two things in that regard, one that bare numbers are not as much use without knowing how the game played out and ALSO how those numbers could be compared to XG from other games, quite a lot in a fairly brief post.

England : League 1: Walsall- Charlton Athletic

I wrote the following earlier in the season when Walsall hosted Accrington Stanley...........

Walsall are a decent well run club and I must have seen them play Brentford 20 times, maybe more ! They have spent 76% of their life as a football club in the third tier and it seems wrong to see them elsewhere, but I guess people would have said the same about the Bees . They have started the season well and are 5th, but started to wobble and I watched extended highlights of their last two home games , a 4-1 loss to Doncaster Rovers and 0-0 draw with Blackpool and they were worse in the second than the first despite the scoreline and a similar performance today will not be good enough.

They lost that and since writing the Saddlers have gone 2-1-4 ( they were 5-3-1 at the time) and are now down in 10th.

Walsall are coming off a 3-1 home loss to Burton Albion, XG for that game was 1.5-2.9 so it might sound fair or even a bit unlucky, but the host did not have an attempt of any kind on goal until the second half and when they were already 0-3 down (!) , which is why it is always best to look at more than basic XG numbers. They have lost 3/4 conceding 10 goals. Charlton are a big League 1 team who expect to play in the Championship or above, they are up to 8th, would go into the playoff spots with a win and are coming off a 2-0 win at home to Doncaster Rovers, where they could and did ease off after the first half an hour or so, by which time they were two up. Previous start to that was a 1-0 road loss at what looks a decent and improving Rochdale, XG in that was 1.8-2.0 so could easily have gone the other way and last Saturday Dale gave the formline a boost by dominating a strong Luton Town team, albeit in a 0-0 draw, with XG of 3.2-1.0. Walsall and Charlton look to be heading in opposite directions and the quick turnaround should additionally favour the bigger club with greater depth and resources.

1.75 units Charlton Athletic -0.25 ball 2.012 asian line/Sportmarket .

Charlton won 2-0 but the result is not as important as the content for the purposes of this sample .

#2 was a look at the non Big 6 teams in the Premier League, where they stood, how that compared to expected goals scored/conceded and points, games played, especially those versus the best and worst teams and upcoming fixtures .............

Premier League:

11 rounds into the campaign, which is almost 29% of games played, but still a long way to go and points up for grabs.

Big 6 teams fill top 5 spots and Manchester United are only preventing it from being 6/6 by virtue of a poor goal difference.

Thought we could take a quick look at the "best of the rest" market, or without the "Big 6".

Bournemouth 20 pts ( 10 pts last 5 starts)

Watford 19 (6)

Everton 18 (12)

Leicester City 16 (7)

Wolverhampton Wanderers 15 (6)

Brighton 14 (9)

West Ham United 11 (7)

Crystal Palace 8 (!)

Bournemouth, Watford and Leicester have performed remarkably close to how they "should have done" in terms of XG, XG conceded and Xpoints.

Everton and Brighton have overperformed, each in points gained , the Toffees also in terms of goals scored, the Seagulls dodging a few bullets at the back, where they should have shipped an additional five goals.

That leaves Wolves, WHU and Palace, they should have an additional 2-5 points each, Palace are underperforming in front of goal, but you only have to watch them for five minutes to realise that, they have a lot of ground to make up, but have plenty of potential to improve and did go on that crazy run last season (1-1-9 and cast adrift after 11 games) then 5-6-1 and up to 12th by the second week in January. I would not totally write off something like that, but, like most of the other 7 clubs discussed they have played 2-3 of the Big 6 and 2-3 of the bottom 4 and their upcoming schedule is not as interesting as the other two.

Wolves have played 3 of the big 6, none of the bottom 4, they should have 3.5 more points and a 6.5 better goal difference, scoring more, conceding less.

The Hammers should have +2 points, they are interesting because they have played 5 games already against the Big 6 , none versus the bottom four.

Wolves are a little interesting at 4.50 + I guess to finish best of the rest, but United are 16-1 and that is more of a "working man's price" and very tempting.

In pre season I wrote .................

I also see West Ham United as a team to keep an eye on this season. Despite all the negative comments about lack of investment and the move away from Upton Park, including fan protests, in the cold light of day, the Hammers have been pretty solid in their six PL seasons since promotion in 2012, finishing 10-13-12-7-11-13. So a sound base to move forward and the much maligned (rightly or wrongly) ownership double act of Sullivan and Gold have cut loose the purse strings this summer, spending well north of 100m to bring in some real talent. With Felipe Anderson/ Issa Diop/ Andriy Yarmolenko/Fabian Balbuena/ Jack Wilshere/ Carlos/Sanchez alongside several others joining the club which has made the locals very happy, although most joy was reserved for the appointment of head coach Manuel Pellegrini who is seen as the classy, senior stateman like head coach with a winning track record who can take the club forward and his impact has been immediate. Captain Mark Noble who has been at the club since he was 13yo said this week that pre season under Pellegrini has been on a different level and far removed from any before and that the squad are as well prepared as ever and as possible, for the new campaign. The Chilean would not take the job until he got major assurances from the owners about backing, not just in terms of money spent on players, but investment in the day to day operation of the club and they have been good to their word and it feels like they are ready to at least make an attempt to push on to the next level, which in their terms means competing for 7th.

They have a terrible start, but are starting to pick up and as you can see above, they are almost always in and around 10th place, do have a 7th to their name and far better quality of player now and despite losing Andriy Yarmolenko for six months, pretty good depth.

Their next 10 starts up to the New Year fixture are Huddersfield /Man City ( by which time they will have already completed half of Big 6 games)/ Newcastle/Cardiff/Palace/ Fulham/ Watford/Southampton/Burnley/ Brighton. That's City , Watford and the other bottom 9 clubs.

Those are two posts, they formed half of Tuesday's newsletter and about 5% of the weekly output ( 40 previews expected) and they go some way to explaining what clubgowi is trying to provide on a day to day basis.

Good Luck.