I have been working hard ahead of the new EPL season and have prepared notes on all 20 teams for subscribers. I included two in this month's free newsletter which was sent out yesterday and there is a third below. The other 17 and my final analysis and bets for the 24/25 campaign will be reserved for clubgowi members. However, there is still time for you to not only sign up and receive all these notes, as well as those for the Championship and League , but to also save 53% on standard rates in the process! Just email us at gowi8@btinternet.com for details.
AFC Bournemouth were my main EPL outright bet last season..........
The Cherries were favourites with everyone for the drop last season, their first back in the top flight and with a pretty much Championship level squad at best, not much changed in that regard after they lost 9-0 early at Anfield and manager Scott Parker was dismissed and replaced by Gary O'Neill. Firstly on an interim basis, he later got the job full time and guided Bournemouth to 15th place, playing very well at times and pretty much securing safety with 5-6 weeks of the season remaining, way beyond expectations. His reward, the sack!
He was Immediately replaced by Andoni Iraola who had allowed his contract at Rayo Vallecano to expire and who was being courted by a number of clubs. Owner Bill Foley said: It wasn’t about Gary, it was about a different opportunity."We just felt that to be as successful as we believe we can be in the transfer market and we are going to change the style of football that we played, then we needed to go a different direction."I don't feel good about it, I don't feel happy about having someone move on from a position within our club."It was not just my decision, it was a decision made by football management and we all separately came to the same conclusion. "So it was a unanimous decision amongst us all and I don't want to be viewed as one of these owners that fires people and goes on and fires them again."That is not our plan. Our plan is to go with this coach and give him every opportunity to be successful."If it means that we are relegated at the end of the season because of a mistake, then I will live with it. That is reality."
That highlighted line feels very important, so let's see what they change and who they bring in. Iraola comes from Gipuzkoa, a tiny province in the north of Spain, just 2,000 sq km, yet he is the 4th current EPL head coach to hail from there, along with Arteta, Emery and Lopetegui, which is just crazy! He is a student, an intelligent man, very into his analytics, playing with relentless pressure, a high block and incredibly offensive desire. I loved this quote which I think came from one of his Rayo players, Andoni doesn't park the bus, he takes it on a wild ride!
Hard not to feel compassion for GON, but this feels like the right appointment and Bournemouth had to act fast, or risk losing their man.
I feel genuinely excited by the prospect of watching Bournemouth and how Iraola attacks the EPL, in La Liga, Xavi said Rayo were the "biggest pain in the arse in La Liga".They had the three players with the most high-intensity sprints in Spain, they were #3 for time spent in the opposition half, 2nd for balls into the box, number one for long (and completed long) passes, 4th for chances created. Iraola said he likes to create organised chaos.
Bournemouth have signed AM Hamed Junior Traore from Sassuolo ( so we already like him!). LB Milos Kerkez from AZ, RM Roman Faivre (Lyon), Justin Kluivert (Roma) and goalkeeper Ionut Radu on loan from Inter.
The Cherries did well last season, but where they were weak, is where Vallecano and Iraola were strongest. I watched their second preseason game the other day and the pressing was already not just intense, but high quality, with 5-6 players not in the final third, but in and around the box when the opposition looked to play short and then again in midfield. I see them as a potential big improver and likely to catch a lot of teams out in the early season.
Let's be brave !
3 units Bournemouth to finish in the top half 9.0 general quote................. they need to find an extra 10-11 points to have a chance and I feel that is doable and well priced.
Oh my goodness! They fell out of the blocks taking just 3 points from a possible 27 and then played at 8th place level for the rest of the campaign, higher for most of that, lost their last three starts and came up one point shy of top ten! Seriously, that is not fair!
It was hard to be too disappointed, it was a great pick and Bournemouth were a fun watch once they got up to speed, witness destroying Manchester United at Old Trafford in the middle of a run where they took 19 points from a possible 21, scoring 2+ goals in all seven games. They have not sold anyone yet, there are some rumours about Dominic Solanke leaving, especially to Tottenham, but I just do not see how Spurs would be prepared to pay the rumoured £65m release clause, Daniel Levy would have a heart attack just thinking about it and the 26 yo striker has had just the one big EPL season, 19 goals in 23/24, scoring just 10 in 96 appearances prior to that and he has only really thrived at first team level with the Cherries where he is loved. Bournemouth have indicated that they have several options should Solanke depart and they have spent circa £50m on making the loan signings of Luis Sinisterra and Enes Unal permanent and adding young CB Dean Huijsen from Juventus. They are actively pursuing a full back and goalkeeper and owner Bill Foley has invested heavily on the club infrastructure and spent an absolute fortune on a new 54 acre training facility. The complex will feature nine full-size pitches , three junior pitches, three goalkeeping pitches and indoor and outdoor artificial playing surfaces.There will also be state-of-the-art medical, fitness, sports science and rehabilitation facilities, administrative space and a press conference theatre. Scheduled to be completed early next year, with much of the work already done, they are said to be the equal of any in the country and little expense has been spared. The existing training centre will be knocked down once the new facility is ready and then work on extending the stadium will begin. There are a lot of plans for the club on and off the pitch and Foley is also looking to buy a club in both Portugal and the Netherlands, opening up a pathway through them to the EPL.
No wonder Foley has an almost unheard of, for an owner, 98% approval rating amongst supporters, who are also delighted with the head coach and style of football being played. They need to hit the ground running this season, but regardless of which, the future looks very bright at the Vitality Stadium. The following was taken from a Guardian article published back in May.....
Bournemouth place huge emphasis on repeating high-intensity efforts and the speed at which players react and only Liverpool recovered more loose balls in the league this season. Iraola said:“If you want to attack the spaces, be aggressive on the press – you’re not giving a lot of time to the players to rest." You only get there if you train the same way and everyone is really committed to it. You need players that buy into the idea and I feel like we have this.”
The only staff member to follow Iraola to Bournemouth was Pablo de la Torre, the fitness coach who worked with him in his first managerial post at AEK Larnaca and at Rayo Vallecano, whom Iraola left for England. How important is athleticism to implementing his style? “It is key because we try to play with a fast rhythm. We don’t want the games to stop and you don’t have time to recover. I always say: ‘You have to ask for the ball when you’re tired.’ If you are waiting to rest before asking again for the ball or making the run into space, everyone can do this. But you are a Premier League player and if you are tired, this is the moment you have to push the opposition, when they are also tired, and try to break them. To do that you have to be at your best physically.”
Bournemouth did not win a league game until last October but their slow start prompted Iraola to exaggerate his methods. “In Spain we were a very, very aggressive team, with a very high press, but we had to be even more aggressive because the standards here are really high. Every team is really pushing to recover the ball as high as they can. We had to reinforce our message, take even more risks, play with an even higher line because otherwise we couldn’t really make a difference. When I’m on the bench and everyone is in a low block, really compact, 10 players behind the ball, I don’t feel very comfortable.”
Staff talk of him having an unwavering belief in his formula. “ I have to be thankful to the players because they continued trusting in what we were doing. I’ve never felt like they wanted to play in a different way.”
Only players who buy into this philosophy will fit in at Bournemouth and those that have already done so, will be even better and fitter this season. His Rayo Vallecano team improved in each of his three seasons at the helm and nosedived in 23/24, the first after his departure.
The Cherries came in 9th (of course they did!) for xP with 53 points and xGF gave them an eye-catching 10 additional goals and they have the potential to hit those numbers in real terms this season.
Good luck!
