Spezia have been in by far the better form of these two, in fact, the visitors have played as well as almost anyone since the turn of the year, winning 4/5 starts including away to both Milan and Napoli ! That run has taken them up to the dizzy heights of 15th place, 7 points clear of the drop zone and 15 ahead of basement club Salernitana.

 

The hosts have won just three times since being promoted last summer and goals have been a major issue, just 14 in their 21 starts and it was always likely to be a problem as they scored "just" 46 in finishing second last season, which was fewest amongst the top 8 and, the other five top 2 teams in the last three seasons had all scored between 63-69 goals and Salernitana were a massive 17-23 short. But their problems do not end there as they have also conceded a whopping 50 goals (2.38 pg) and that is on the rise (27 in the last 10 @ 2.7 pg).

 

Spezia won the reverse fixture 2-1 and also by the same scoreline on their last visit to this stadium (2020), they have actually won the last four h2h meetings (all by that 2-1 scoreline). A repeat, or something similar would not surprise as, despite the home sides scoring woes and the visitors upturn in form, this does still largely meet the "two struggling teams equalling goals" mantra we so often trot out at this time of the year and the hosts are desperate and have to gamble for the win today.

 

The visitors have been rewarded by showing faith in head coach Thiago Motta after a very poor start to this season (12 points from 17 games), which is almost unheard of in Serie A and clearly felt he was capable of turning things around and that has been fully justified, he is likely to stick with the starting 11 or similar which has served him so well recently , under the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it " banner.

 

It is all change for Salernitana who signed a whole host of players in the January window and they could have a handful (maybe more) of debutants starting this evening, first up they are missing Francesco Di Tacchio, Mamadou Coulibaly and Federic Vaseli from their most recent win due toinjury and suspension and they signed 8-9 players in the final week of the transfer window (it is hard to be precise given the level of activity). It is a real mix of youthful promise from overseas (Emerson) , some underachievers (Lys Mousset) and a few very experienced/long in the tooth ( Ivan Radovanovic and Federico Fazio) and a couple of these I have been critical of in the past. It might work out well, who knows, the players used in the first 21 games were not up to scratch, but it does feel like a bit of a shotgun approach and a "if he has a pulse, sign him" policy !

 

That all makes this a very interesting game and one we can definitely learn something from. In terms of today, all change for Salernitana and that might lead to even more errors and/or a different more offensive approach and it has to come soon, or it will be too late, let's go for another 2-1 result, one way or the other !

 

 

2 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.11 asian line.

 

 

 

Paris won away to Auxerre at big odds last Tuesday and my notes for that also included some content from a weekend draw with Dunkerque...........

 

 

PFC won that 2-1 and BC's 5-4 in an open game that was highly entertaining. Those three points against a direct promotion rival took them third and to within a point of leaders Toulouse ahead of this round of fixtures, although that gap is now 4 points after the weekend games . They meet another direct rival today as Ajaccio are a point better off in second place, but they are very different to both Toulouse and Auxerre in how they approach games, having a defence first approach (PFC fall somewhere between the two camps, but have been very open recently) and their 10 starts have produced a ridiculously low 9 goals (5 scored, 4 conceded) , The visitors have won 10/10 when they score first, after which they usually just look to shut up shop, but are limited in terms of plan B and have lost the last four with scoring in which they have conceded first, so the route to victory is clear for PFC, score first ! In terms of entertainment, the h2h record offers more, as the last four meetings in Paris have seen both teams score , a win each and two 1-1 draws. However, this is not being played in Paris, but Le Mans, due to sanctions placed on the home club, it was originally a five game ban, but has been reduced to two and they can return to playing in their home stadium after this fixture. Their only previous game here was a 2-2 draw with Le Havre, where they led 2-0 as the game approached the hour mark, obviously no crowd and playing 200 km from home makes this very much more of a neutral venue and aids Ajaccio's chances. Having said that, I really think that the visitors have been riding their luck to concede just two goals from their last four away starts, losing each in terms of BC's and conceding 2.75 per game and that can only continue for so long.

 

PFC have both scored and conceded in 5/6 starts and that, and the h2h record and neutral venue suggests value in BTS at circa 2.20 + and Ajaccio did score twice in a 2-2 draw with Toulouse and this fixture feels similar.

 

2.25 units both teams to score @ 2.30 asian line.

 

 

 

 

 

Good luck !