Last 18 seasons: The third placed team has won nine times , 4th and 5th on four occasions, the team finishing in sixth just once and not for the last thirteen seasons. Advantage Leeds, City in the "jinx" position.

In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season): Southampton 18 points (4-2-0), Leeds 7 points (2-1-3), WBA 7 points (2-1-3) and Norwich 5 points (1-2-3). Huge edge for Saints, with the other three teams losing half of their h2h games.
 

Points picked up over the second half of the season : Leeds 45 pts (0), Southampton 42 (-3) Norwich City 39 (+5) and WBA 39 (+3) .  Figures in parenthesis are the difference between the second 23 and first 23 games. Leeds and Saints have the edge and whilst there was some drop off/levelling out for those two, it was from a very high level..........45 points at half way, which both had, is automatic promotion level and then some and both teams came in at roughly those numbers through each set of 23 games.

 

Points collected over the last 10 games: Norwich City 18, Southampton 17, WBA 15 and Leeds United 14. Leeds and Saints both blew automatic promotion chances over the final two months .

 

There looks to be a gulf in class between Leeds and Saints and the other two clubs, that is backed up by all the numbers and especially the 12-17 point 46 game gap and goal difference edge. In terms of finishing position, the results of the last 18 years suggest that there is a 72.22% chance of one of those two winning and that feels about right. Also, Albion and City have 12 away wins between them, United and Southampton 11 each and remember, two of hopefully three playoff games are played "away" from home. 

 

In terms of single performances, Leeds United were the best team I saw this season, their 1-0 win at Leicester City was incredible and the scoreline doesn't do them justice. They pressed the Foxes to death and it was a struggle for the champions to get out of their defensive third, let alone their own half and if we knew that United were going to play at that level in the postseason we could bet and just go and wait at the payout counter! Unfortunately, we don't and there is a school of thought which says that Farke teams, like those of Marcelo Bielsa ( so nothing new for United), tire as the season progresses and it is hard to press at high intensity for 46 Championship games, something always has to give! Also, like Bilesa, Farke has his favourites and six of his players (five outfield) have played 3,600+ minutes (equivalent to all of 40 games) this season, which is the most amongst the top six clubs.They look to have lost some self belief and confidence, add in that poor h2h record and that they could be running on empty and it is hard to get too excited by odds of circa 2.50. That kind of leaves me, by process of elimination, with Southampton and if you twisted my arm, they would be my suggestion, although how much value there is in general odds of 2.60 is open to debate, but they are 2.70 with Pinnacle and they would have been a bet at those odds if they were more freely available.