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Jan 09, 2025
Bundesliga:SC Freiburg- Holstein Kiel
Freiburg have looked better than 9th place at times, but have struggled at the back and, going into the break ahead of an always daunting trip to Leverkusen I wrote .....
Freiburg finished 6th in 21/21, 5th in 22/23 and look to have returned to that level being currently 5th, but they are five without a clean sheet and have conceded 11 goals in that sequence, creating 18 BC's despite scoring only eight themselves, we can expect all those trends to continue, both teams to score and once the dust has settled, the three points to stay on home soil.
That played out well for us, less so for them as they lost 5-1, giving them a negative goal difference of -3 for the season, xGD says that should be +7 which is a big swing and xGF that they should have scored six more and they did hit the woodwork twice at the Bay Arena, but that is how things have been going for them, they are scoring, but not not as many as they should and are conceding far more easily than numbers suggest. They will sort that out I suspect and might have done so over the break, but today they desperately need a win and will be pleased that they are hosting a bottom 2 team who have conceded the most goals in the Bundesliga. It has been a disappointing first season in the top flight for Kiel who were third tier in 2017, but we know they give 100% for 100 minutes and during the October break I wrote ............ they are prepared to work like Trojans and in that regard, they should be refreshed and fired up after the break, they have recorded the most sprints in the Bundesliga ( Leverkusen #2 and Dortmund #3) and are #2 for most intensive runs (Bayern #3). So every chance that they will be up for this, can cause Freiburg problems and they have scored in every away game, all of which have produced 3+ goals and this feels like a no brainer ........
2.5 units both teams to score and over 2.5 goals @ 2.24 asian line.
Glossary:
ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .
XG= expected goals.
XGF= expected goals for.
XGA = expected goals against.
XGD = expected goal difference.
XP = expected points.
BC = big scoring chance.
TIPA = touches inside penalty area
Good luck!
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