You can read " edited highlights" (including one selection) below of today's clubgowi subscriber newsletter in which I previewed five Ligue 2 games and put up six selections. We have a big weekend ahead with two newsletters on both Saturday and Sunday at 10.00 and 13.00 UK time each day and if you
sign up to the service today before 19.00 I will add you to the mailing list immediately and send you an unedited copy of today's notes, but not start "charging" until Monday, so you can ease into the service and get all five newsletters for free.
Next newsletter will be sent @ 10.00 UK time on Saturday.
A lot of very interesting games in Ligue 2 , either from a pre match or "in play" perspective. Plenty of rain around in France today, especially in Creteil ( see below) and the match there could turn into a bit of a mud bath, but I do not think it will make too much difference and it will be factored into the quotes we are interested in to some degree in any case.
Ligue 2 is running a little below average in terms of goals scored (0.15 per game down compared to the last four seasons) and quite a bit in relation to home wins (4.46%, which equates to 11 games over the 25 rounds), the two are "connected " of course, but we know from previous experience that these numbers often level out over the full season and we can certainly expect a few more home wins and goals from now on in. We will look at this in greater detail in the coming weeks.
We are know entering the stage of the season, when I consider team news to be less important and from now on in, it is far more about heart, desire and motivation/need for a result .
Dijon have to handle the always tough quick turnaround having played on Monday, but this week that hands them an advantage as Sochaux are coming off a big Coupe de France win over Monaco 24 hours later, they rotated a little there, but 11 players played in both that and the home loss to Red Star last weekend and they only used two subs in the former and there are bound to be a few tired legs on the team bus. This will be the 10th start of 2016 for the visitors and league leaders Dijon have only played six so far and that is a significant edge at this stage of the season and we have to assume that in two of those , both against L1 opposition that Sochaux had to work significantly harder than usual, on pitches that are heavy and draining.
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Dijon : Basilio, Reynet – Bernard, Jullien, Lotiès, Souquet, Varrault – Amalfitano, Belmonte, Gastien, Marié, Sammaritano – Bela, Diony, Tavares, Thiam.
Sochaux : Prévot, Werner – Teikeu, Gibaud, Faussurier, Onguéné - Ilaimaharitra, Daham, Tardieu, Martin, Guerbert - Caceres, Cissé, Toko Ekambi, Thuram, Mbombo, Sacko.
I suggest we start with a look at PFC's last home game and my notes on that are reproduced below the "good Luck" sign off.
Absolutely no lessons learned by Paris and they failed to score against Clermont (0-0) and away to Evian (0-1), it is ok to be "bad" or not good enough, but you have to have a go and PFC only seem prepared to open up after failing behind or very late in the game, I just don't get that, given their situation why try to win a game in 15 minutes when you start with 90 ? They did try to press late in the Clermont match, but could/should have been trailing by that time in any case and what they really need is a kick up the back side and someone to wake them up from their slumber ! They are now six points from safety and as I said recently it is "better to go out like a lion, than to suffer the death of a thousand cuts that occasional draws will bring."
Nimes are totally different and in my preview of their win over Niort last week I spoke about how they are prepared to gamble and take a chance .........
Nimes have been playing at a high level for many weeks and they have only lost once at home all season. They did taste defeat at Ajaccio in midweek, but I think we can forgive them that, i spoke about the huge support they have been getting at home ahead of that game and the club president issued a rallying cry to fans this week and called every game a final from here on in, my notes on their last home game can be read on this link.
Although we are forgeting that loss, it has seen them drop back into the relegation places and will concentrate the mind, but I can tell you that Nimes are not looking for a point and have named a very offensive looking squad for tonight with only four defenders in the group.
I like teams who are brave, faint heart never won fair lady , or three points on the road ! In that link we also spoke about the now traditional second half of the season surge from Nimes and
after these two teams both took 13 from their opening 15 starts, it is 4 and 19 respectively from the last ten games, the visitors would now be top ten if we added in their eight point deduction and given all that and being unbeaten in seven h2h meetings against Paris , I can only lean one way and if Nimes do not win, I know it will not be for want of trying and we cannot say for certain the same about Paris.
1.5 units Nimes -0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Paris FC : Thébaux, Demarconnay - Glombard, Mohsni, Jean-Tahrat, Lybohy, Pellenard, Pierre - I.Keita, Bamba, Pereira De Sa, Grange, Gamiette, Bahamboula - Koné, Diarra, Camara.
Nîmes : Michel, Gallon - Valls, Harek, Marin, Paquiez - Savanier, Cissokho, Briançon, Azouni, Lacourt, Chamed - Ripart, Mounié, Koura, Maoulida.
Niort- Brest
Game of two halves ? Ahead of last weekend's trip to Nimes, I spoke about Niort's lack of an offensive threat, they arrived there having failed to trouble a Nancy team who had suddenly started to ship goals and were missing four key defensive players , or prior to that against a team bottom of one of the fourth tier leagues they again came up short and have not now scored in 461 minutes. Don't expect them to burst out of the blocks this evening, as they are the worst first half team in Lige 2, with just 19 points and one win before the break all season. Brest have had a disappointing campaign having come in with big ambitions and the truth is ...........
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Niort : Delecroix, Allagbe - Lahaye, Bong, Batisse ? Da Veiga, Choplin, Kiki - Koukou, Sambia, Roye, Selemani, Bouardja - Djigla, Dona Ndoh, Bassock, Dabasse.
Brest : Hartock, Léon - Lorenzi, Falette, Belaud, Sankoh, Sané, Keïta - Battocchio, Perez, Tié Bi, Grougi, Pelé - Adnane, Alphonse, Joseph-Monrose.
Red Star- Evian
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Red Star : Balijon, Allain - Palun, Jeanvier, Cros, Fournier, Hergault, Amieux - Da Cruz, Boe-Kane, Chavalérin, Sliti, Makhedjouf, Bouazza - Baradji, Aristeguieta, Ngamukol.
Evian TG : Leroy, Durand – Abdallah, Mensah, Betao, Angoula, Soares, Fall, Tejeda, Kamin, Campanharo, Hoggas, Centonze, Barbosa, Kaye, Saint-Louis.
Creteil have conceded 21 goals in their last ten starts and we have spoken often about the open nature of their games. However, in their five home games in that sequence, they have conceded just one goal before the break and that has been the story of their season here at the Stade Dominique Duvauchelle , with just three first half goals conceded in the first half, 15 ( 83%) in the second period. Hosts are also 0-3-4 at home when drawing at half time.
Tours are the joint ......
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Créteil : Kerboriou, Merville - Esor, Mahon de Monaghan, Di Bartolomeo, Diédhiou, Ilunga - Gassama, Petshi, Mollet, Dias, Montaroup, Lesage, Gérard - Niakaté, Dabo.
Tours : Kamara, Westberg - Gradit, Milosevic, Miguel, Bouhours, Agouazi, Raveloson, Belkebla, Santamaria, Bergougnoux, Tandia, Malfleury, Cissé, Maouche, Khaoui.
Good Luck.
Ligue 2: Paris FC- Clermont (written February 1st)
I spoke about
Paris, the trouble they were in and their need to start gambling ahead of their home game with Tours early last month ............
New Year- new approach ? You would hope so if you are a Paris FC supporter ! You will win nothing in modern football with a negative approach and one win and 12 draws from 19 starts have left the hosts where they deserve today, second from bottom, with only Nimes who are dealing with an eight point deduction, below them in the table. They were expected to be the strongest of the three promoted teams and they have been the weakest and by some way, but the break does give time to reflect and also put a few things in order and surely the one thing they have to change is how they approach games and put simply, they have to be braver. They face a tough trip to Le Havre next week and if they don't pick up three points soon, they could quickly be cast adrift at the foot of the table. They have not kept a clean sheet in five home starts, conceding three in two of the last three (all comps) and will be without suspended captain and centre back Herve Lybohy for only the second time this season, also missing are right back Christopher Glombard and holding player Thomas Gamiette , that is a lot of defensive talent and experience and how are they going to keep Tours out for 90 minutes ?
New home coach Jean-Luc Vasseur has now had a month in charge and took the team away for a three day training camp over the holiday, which he said was productive, but did not give him much time to work on certain aspects (defence ?) given the injury situation, he also spoke about the poor state of mind of the squad as a whole and that might take more time to address, but PFC do not have too much of that.
There are a few notes on the visitors below and we have spoken a lot about them previously and especially the good adjustments they make under head coach Marco Simone, picking up a ,second highest in L2, 32 points after the break.
I expect Paris to go for this, but they are weakened defensively, Tours will be buoyed by a win over 6th placed Metz before the break and a fighting performance at Ligue 1 Lorient last weekend which like BEBP will give them a competitive edge today. If forced, I guess I would have to side with the visitors, but this is a huge game for Paris and I see better value with (the over).
Rereading those notes, you get the feeling that PFC head coach Jan-Luc Vasseur already knew the size of the task facing him, Paris lost that 3-1 and the only subsequent point that the hosts have collected was in a 0-0 draw with Sochaux, where you suspect the visitors were happy with a point and it seems like as soon as Paris open up, they lose, but now five points from safety, what choice do they have ? A point here and there is worthless and they simply have to get into that gambling mentality and stick with it, better to go out like a lion, than to suffer the death of a thousand cuts that occasional draws will bring.
Clermont have a completely different approach to games, their have conceded nine goals in their last two away starts (!) and their last six games, have all gone "over", at an average of 4.67 goals, those last two days on the road have been bad, but they allowed 14 in their previous 9, which is much better, but hardly denotes a watertight backline away from home comforts. However, before we start feeling sorry for them, a win tonight will take them up into third and to within five points of a promotion spot and it is clear which approach that these two teams adopt is the more profitable and fun to watch !
For Paris, new front man Cheick Diarra is suspended and a number of offensive players are injured, including top scorer Romain Grange, he has four goals and an assist this season, that is a third of their total and no other player has scored more than a single goal. They have been so desperate they have moved Grange centrally recently and that has not worked, as his threat is out wide, but now, they do not have either option . It will be good for us, my personal betting account and football if Clermont win, Paris have approached this season with an antiquated idea of how football should be played and hopefully, they will finally realise that back in National.
