Ligue 1 : A look at what's happening inside the box ...........

Nov 15, 2019

ITB and expected numbers : Ligue 1: 13 rounds played

Glossary:

ITB= inside the box attempts, Goal of the month competitions usually feature several long range contenders and we always remember those 30 yard bullets into the top corner, but only 12.87% of Premier League goals over the last three seasons have been scored from outside the box , good coaches are known to encourage players to look for better scoring opportunities and it is usually only supporters urging "shoooooot" everytime the goal is within sight, even if there are 20 players between ball and net .

XG= expected goals.

XGF= expected goals for.

XGA = expected goals against.

XGD = expected goal difference.

XP = expected points.

BC = big scoring chance.

PSG +89 (+24)

Marseille -1 (-2)

Angers +20 (+8)

St Etienne -2 (-4)

Lille +19 (+4)

Montpellier +18 (+5)

Bordeaux -22 (-5)

Reims +18 (+1)

Nantes +9 (+8)

*Rennes -18 (+8)

Monaco +12 (-2)

Brest -44 (-12)

Nice -34 (-14)

Lyon +23 (+24)

Amiens -29 (-10)

Strasbourg +15 (+17)

Metz -28 (-16)

Dijon -28 (-25)

Toulouse -12 (+6)

*Nimes -5 (-15)

*played just 12 rounds.

Net ITB numbers alongside each team, figures after than in brackets are net ITB for last five games.

So what stands out ?

PSG are top on merit, who knew ? Only 4 points separates 5th and 16th and only 11 between 2nd and 20th, so things can and will change very quickly in Ligue 1. In the top half Bordeaux and Rennes have continued to ride their luck and St Etienne have moved up to 4th on minus numbers .

Lower down , Brest are in 12th place on league worst numbers, Nice are 13th on second worse. Lyon (2nd best) and Strasbourg (6th) have to be moving up the table soon and have both posted really good recent numbers.

XP sees the top of the table look like ...........

1st PSG 31 points

2nd Lille 23

3rd Lyon 21

4th Montpellier 21

5th Reims 20

6th Angers 20

7th Monaco 19

8th Strasbourg 19

9th Amiens 18

10th Marseille 17

The bottom.....

17th St Etienne 14 points

18th Nimes 14

19th Metz 13

20th Brest 13

All XP rounded off to the nearest whole number, there is a similar 10 point gap between second and 20th , but with a very different distribution. Plenty we/you/I can use here in the coming weeks.

I think the real value of ITB might be once the numbers start to turn like Guingamp in Ligue 2 between Weeks 7-10, they may not always be reflected immediately in results, so we will have an edge "knowing" when teams are starting to turn things around OR falling into bad habits, which is just as valuable.

I like expected goals/points numbers too, but IMO, it is easier to see the direction teams are heading with ITB if only because there are more numerically and the swings quicker to pick up on. But I also think they highlight the flow of the games and the superiority, or failings of teams, better.

At present I am still trying to find/negotiate a third party home for ITB and some other stats I produce, where you will be better able to access them regularly (after each round of games) and for free...............stay tuned !

Good Luck.