Leverkusen back on track ?
Dec 20, 2024
Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen- Freiburg (written Thursday @ 06:39)
Leverkusen look firmly back on track now with seven wins in a row across three competitions, which has left them set for top 8 in the Champions League, having progressed past Bayern in the DFB Pokal with a win in Munich and up to second in their title defence, just four points adrift of the Bavarian giants and they will not want that gap to widen going into the Christmas mini break. Ahead of that win in the domestic cup two weeks ago I wrote ..........
The two best teams in the Bundesliga clash at the Allianz, we could make a case for neither really needing progress in this competition as both are in a strong position to progress in the Champions League. That campaign was probably why Xabi Alonso opted to stay at Leverkusen another season and for Bayern it is massive, as the CL final is being held in Munich this season and they have to get as close to that as is possible. I suppose we can make a case for Bayer being more invested in the cup as they are holders, whereas Bayern have been eliminated early in each of the last four seasons. The two have already met here in Munich in the league at the end of September when my notes went a lot like this .....
Bayern are the hottest team in Europe so far this season with 29 goals and are a perfect 6 from 6 starts in all competitions, but we know two things, they are not as good defensively and they have already conceded twice in two of those games and Leverkusen were the best team in German by a country mile last season and look of a similar level this time around.
The visitors have been scoring almost as freely too, they have lost one game, 3-2 at home to Leipzig but that was merely a blip and the following week I wrote about the unfairness of that defeat ......
Hoffenheim couldn't find that desired second goal in a 3-1 defeat at Frankfurt going into the international break, but the truth is that they were well beaten and now they face a very hungry, hurt and strong champion who have had to live with a 3-2 home defeat to Leipzig, their first domestic loss in 15 months(1), for two weeks. It had to come some time, but was no less painful when it did. Also, the unjustness made it even harder to bear, they led 2-0 at half time, had 70% possession in the second half, winning xG 1.3 -0.3 , ITB 9-3 after the break and lost 0-3! Sometimes the ball is round, everything a team touches goes in the net and there is nothing much that can be done, just accept it, know that the football gods owe you and move on. Hopefully, an early payback today!
Leverkusen have averaged 2.61 goals per Bundesliga game since the start of last season and already have five and an xGF of 6.7 in this campaign and hard to make a case yet for them having regressed from the greatest season in their history. After such a season you would have expected Leverkusen to have been picked clean this summer by the cream of European club football, but that has not happened and I assume that was the assurance given to head coach Xabi Alonso before he decided to stay and turned down moves to a couple of massive clubs, including Liverpool. In fact, they look stronger overall with a +30m € net spend.
Bayer have scored 10 goals in their last four visits to Hoffenheim, with 3+ goals in each and a repeat is on the cards.
They have scored 12 goals, 4 in each of three subsequent games and I expect them to have plenty of offensive joy today. They took 4 points and scored 5 goals against Bayern last season and are looking to score 2+ against the Bavarian giants for the 4th game running.
That finished 1-1 with both goals coming before the break. Bayern were much the better team, but it was the 4th game running that the Bavarian giants have failed to beat Leverkusen under Alonso who finished his playing career with the hosts. After a bit of a slow start he has got his team purring again with 12 goals in winning their last three starts and Bayern had a battle at Dortmund on Saturday evening where they came from behind to claim a point.
Leverkusen have both won and conceded in 10 of their last 13 home Bundesliga starts and both teams have scored in the last five h2h games played here at the Bay Arena. Freiburg finished 6th in 21/21, 5th in 22/23 and look to have returned to that level being currently 5th, but they are five without a clean sheet and have conceded 11 goals in that sequence, creating 18 BC's despite scoring only eight themselves, we can expect all those trends to continue, both teams to score and once the dust has settled, the three points to stay on home soil.
2.25 units both teams to score and "over" 2.5 goals @ 2.25 asian line.
Good luck!
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