League 1 playoff final............

May 17, 2024

The following notes were sent to everybody in the clubgowi database two weeks ago. Wanderers have not won anything yet, they still have to force their way past Oxford United tomorrow, but we have great value now, 2.60+ about a team now quoted at 1.45.

League 1 playoffs:

This is the league that I have followed all my life and seen many hundreds of games live and retain a strong feel for and our outright bets in recent years stand testimony to that .

League 1 outright bets ...........

2016/17 Sheffield United 3 units to win outright @ 7.0+ . WIN with 100 points.

2017/18 Rotherham United 1.75 units to win playoffs @ 3.25. WIN.

2018/19 Charlton Athletic 2.5 units to win playoffs @ 3.40. WIN.

2020/21 Oxford United to finish top 6 @ 6.0. WIN.

2020/21 Blackpool 3 units to win playoffs @ 3.75. WIN.

2021/22 Rotherham United 1 unit to win outright @ 13.0. second........ seven point lead with 10 games remaining!

2021/22 Rotherham United 2.5 units to win promotion@ 4.50. WIN.

2023/24 Portsmouth 1.5 units to win outright @ 11.0. WIN.

2023/24 Portsmouth 3 units to win promotion @ 4.0. WIN.

2023/24			Overall									Home						Away
2023/24			P	W	D	L	F	A	Gdf	Pts	Form	P	W	D	L	F	A	P	W	D	L	F	A
	1	Portsmouth	46	28	13	5	78	41	+37	97	WLWX	23	15	5	3	43	27	23	13	8	2	35	14
	2	Derby County	46	28	8	10	78	37	+41	92	WWWO	23	15	4	4	41	18	23	13	4	6	37	19
	3	Bolton Wanderers	46	25	12	9	86	51	+35	87	XWXX	23	15	5	3	52	27	23	10	7	6	34	24
	4	Peterborough United	46	25	9	12	89	61	+28	84	XLWW	23	13	5	5	55	28	23	12	4	7	34	33
	5	Oxford United	46	22	11	13	79	56	+23	77	WXLW	23	11	7	5	44	24	23	11	4	8	35	32
	6	Barnsley	46	21	13	12	82	64	+18	76	XLLX	23	9	7	7	38	33	23	12	6	5	44	31

Last 18 seasons (since we have been previewing them) : Teams finishing 3rd have won eight times, the team in 4th five , 6th on three occasions, the side who ended in 5th just twice and that was 17 seasons ago and the season before last, so a 15 year gap in between. So the two teams with more regular season points have won on 13 occasions, or 72.22% of the time.

In terms of points won in h2h round robin matches (games between the four teams this season): Peterborough United 9 points (2-3-1), Bolton Wanderers 8 points (1-5-0), Oxford United 7 points (2-1-3) and Barnsley 6 points (1-3-2). A lot of h2h draws with half the games ending all square.

Points picked up over the second half of the season : Bolton Wanderers 39 ( -9 compared to their first 23 games) , Peterborough United 39 (-6) , Oxford United 34 (-9) and Barnsley 34 (-8). It is unusual in the extreme for all four to perform worse through the second half of the campaign, infact , I cannot recall it happening previously and roughly by similar levels, a drop off of between 6-9 points.

Across the last 10 games: Oxford 20 pts, Bolton 17, Peterborough 16 and Barnsley 9 (very low total and winless in their last six).

Unusually, three of the four teams are playoff returnees from last season, with Bolton Wanderers , Barnsley and Peterborough United all competing for the second year running , after losing out to Sheffield Wednesday 12 months ago. Oxford are not total newbies though, as this is their third appearance in the playoffs in five years. Despite making the final in the first of those, they are winless through those five postseason games, three draws and two defeats.

None of this quartet have exactly covered themselves in glory in recent months as already detailed. Oxford needed help on the final day to make it back into the top 6, Posh are very up and down and have lost 5-0 to Oxford in recent weeks and also have that playoff nightmare from last season hanging over them , when they blew a 4-0 first leg lead! Barsnley have just played awful football in the last few months, tried their best to lose out on top 6 at the weekend after pushing for top 2 at the end of February and sacked their head coach Neill Collins just five days before the end of the season! Almost by process of elimination that leaves us with Bolton Wanderers who we have been following/tracking for a few years, through which they have continually improved. Wanders were 3rd in L2 and promoted in 20/21, 9th in L1 with 73 points a year later, 5th last season with 81 points and 3rd in 23/24 with 87 points. Therefore, despite that second half fall off, which was anyway from a high level, it is hard to be too critical of this (now) every well run club.

Ahead of last season , so in Summer 2022 I wrote a lengthy write up on them and those notes are reproduced below the "good luck" sign off. Wanderers are a famous club, one of the 12 founder members of the Football League and they turned professional 11 years before that! When clubs like that fall on hard times, they do invariably get back to that former level or close to it and I expect Bolton in the coming seasons to get into the Championship (hopefully this season) and eventually to at least compete for their Holy Grail, promotion to the EPL. They were last in the top flight as recently as 2012 and in Europe 4-5 years prior to that. It can be both fun and profitable to follow teams on these journeys and we need to keep one eye on what is going on Bolton and similar clubs I (or you yourself identify) going forward, even if they do not feature week on week.

That Sharon Brittan interview has still only been viewed by a few thousand people, a few hundred when I put it in the newsletter, which I find incredibly short sighted given they are a big club on the rise and she an individual little known in football circles, it is laziness, but that is always good for us, as, for all my faults, a fear of hard work is not one!

Last year I updated with...........

I understand that Chris Markham, who is Technical Performance Director at the club (edit:now Sporting Director), has been increasingly influential and he , Evatt and Brittan are a real team and the trio have a saying that they are not in League 1, but in the "league of one", which means " doing things our own way and being the best we can possibly be ."

Markham has celebrated two years at the club this week, his original remit was to help establish an elite and innovative performance culture for the football department. He was a key part of the Huddersfield Town staff who achieved an EFL record 43-game unbeaten run, as well as winning two promotions , including to the Premier League for the first time in their history . Upon joining he said: “In the short term, I am looking forward to supporting the manager in any way necessary to allow him to continue to focus on evolving his team and embedding the identity on the field.“In the long term, my aim is to provide stability and develop a platform for Bolton Wanderers to be successful for years to come, aligning to the ownership’s vision of forward thinking and doing things differently.”

The growth at the club over the last two years has been immense and I see similarities with a lot of similarly well run clubs, who, when they cannot simply throw money at a project that they want to be involved in for years, have to be innovative and invest in other ways and the added bonus is that good people who do not feel under pressure of losing their jobs, feed off this security and stability and the club is now built on very solid foundations.

Bolton have also got some wealthy individuals who have bought into the club recently with Brittain diluting her shares, but remaining the majority shareholder and the future looks good for Wanderers, but promotion this year was the target and they just got run out of it in the final months by two good and arguably bigger clubs. But they did improve again and they have a good set up and a lot of stability and were 10 points better than Oxford and Barnsley, the latter whom they face in the playoff semi finals for the second season running. They lost out in two close games 12 months ago, but have had a 16 point swing over the Tykes compared to the last regular season. The Trotters are unbeaten in seven games and did not lose to any of the other playoff teams this season. Ian Evatt spoke to the club website this week about the game ahead:

“I think we’re a different team this year. I think we’ve evolved and I’ve just said to the players we can’t look any further afield than the game on Friday. That’s our next game, that’s our next challenge and we need to make sure we’re ready.

“There’s no point in looking too far ahead or dreaming about Wembley. We have to focus on the next game and the next game is Barnsley.”

The first leg of the semi-final is at Oakwell next Friday night and Wanderers this time have the second leg at home four days later.

The winners will then face either Oxford United or Peterborough in the final, with Evatt pleased with much of what he saw in a potential dress rehearsal in a 3-3 draw with Posh last weekend.

“I thought the first half was excellent, really aggressive, really front-footed. We could have scored more and the result elsewhere probably damaged our confidence a little bit and we lost a little bit of focus.”

“The second half probably lacked the same intensity of the first and that’s natural. Having said that, I think their second goal was off-side and I think there were some poor decisions in there.

“It was great that the players re-gathered some composure and managed not to lose. That was important to keep some momentum. We actually gained control again after they scored the third goal, which was good, and there are valuable lessons learned should we meet them again.

“We also managed to get some players off the pitch and get them some rest because we know it’s a short turn-around now with the first leg being Friday. It was great that Dion got off the mark again, returning from injury, and we’ll have a few bodies back now for the play-offs as well and we’ll do our best to be ready.”

Midfielder Paris Maghoma missed the game at Peterborough through illness but is expected to be available for the play-off opener, while former Barnsley striker Victor Adeboyejo – whose goal kick-started a successful fightback at Oakwell in early March – is also due back in training on Monday after missing nine games with a hamstring injury.

Maghoma is on loan from Brentford and well regarded at the Premier League club, he has picked up some POTY awards at Wanderers and they would like to sign him permanently, but I doubt the clubs could agree a fee, he brings a touch of class to the playoffs. In addition to the extra six points this season, Wanderers have scored an additional 24 goals (0.52 pg) and only champions Portsmouth lost fewer games. Goals and being tough to beat sounds a great playoff combination and with doubts about the other trio, they have to be the call.

2.5 units Bolton Wanderers to win the playoffs @ 2.60+ general quote.

I think I have the L1 winner again for next season, but we will have to hold off on that until the summer !

Good luck!

League 1: 22/23 season outright

At the end of last season I wrote a post about teams that tended to improve in the second half of the season and finished those notes with .......

I have a team who have played well in the second half of most recent seasons , sensationally in the last two and who are well aware of this, it has been discussed by many at the club and this is a sleeping giant who have spent much of this last campaign building for 22/23 , they feel that a lot of things are in place and will be investing this summer (additions have already started) to add the final couple of pieces in the jigsaw and this is now a very stable club. Plans have been in place for this summer for many months, all geared to hitting the ground running, they are going to a pre season overseas training camp for the first time in many years and the structure is finally set off the pitch and this is a club ready to make the next step forward and they have REAL potential. They are low level at the moment, but I feel they could be knocking on the EPL door at some stage in the not too distant future and I see some similarities with how they are now run , with Brentford, with many of the same thinking and ideals, this is not a club who will be firing anyone after a few bad results, as long as they feel they are heading in the right long term direction, for example . An exciting project and one we need to get on board with and they will form one of , if not THE main preseason previews.

You can read the full article in this post on the clubgowi website.

The team in question was Bolton Wanderers, a famous old club, who were founding members of the Football League, but one who have been in financial difficulties for the best part of a decade , going from one crisis to another, servicing a huge debt and losses as high as £50m per year. They were in the EPL as recently as 2012, spent 7 of the next 8 seasons in the Championship , but found themselves in League 2 in 2020. That first season in the 4th tier they were 19th through 24 games with 28 points, but opted to stick with head coach Ian Evatt (more of that later) and were handsomely rewarded , they collected 51 points from their final 22 games, at an average of 2.32 pg and finish third, claiming an automatic promotion place. Last season, at the higher level, they were 18th through the same opening 24 games with 26 points and then collected 47 points from the final 22 (2.14 pg..........which is better than 21/22 title winning form).

The club has been transformed by Football Ventures and Sharon Brittan, who went through the "most difficult administration process in the history of football" to purchase the club and it is a fantastic story...........Lengthy interview with chairperson Sharon Brittan on youtube

Stick with that interview if you have time, there is a LOT of interesting stuff in that and much way beyond football and Bolton Wanderers.

This is a great piece from the interview.............

“Ian Evatt is an absolute delight of a man to work with, he is a fantastic person. He has an extraordinary ability to cope with stress."Part of the industry I think is wrong is that you can lose five games and then clubs change a manager – well that not only brings costs, a rebuild, they take their team, you have to bring in a new one, their own players.“My mindset is that you have to give a manager time to do his job. And never was that better proven than last year when everyone was up in arms in November, we gave Ian time and got promoted.“There’s no other business you’d run on a five-week period, then sack the CEO. It wouldn’t happen.“October here is a great example where games haven’t gone according to plan but in no way, shape or form does that affect what I am thinking about our plan for Bolton. I know where we are going and how we are doing it.”

Brittan thinks Bolton are 9th or 10th in terms of "spend" , top 2-3 in terms of how they are run with a "fabulous" off pitch team (CEO came in from an EPL team for example) and we saw and see with Brentford ,how far that can take you. They had the third highest xGF in the division last season, better than two of the three promoted teams and despite that terrible start, their defence was ranked top 10 and fine margins could see huge improvement in results, especially and mainly with a faster start. Investment looks solid now, they have five investors ( Nick Mason of Pink Floyd is one), including Brittan and everything looks in place for a big push.

Wanderers have sold over 13,000 season tickets, which is the most since their last EPL campaign and the town is "buzzing". This is a club which, after so much upheaval oozes calm and solidarity on and off the pitch and they have the third highest squad "retention" in League 1 as I type . Manchester City and England U20 goalkeeper, James Trafford, spent the second half of last season at Bolton and has extended that deal for this upcoming season. Also joining on loan is 19 yo (he turned 19 last week) RB Conor Bradley , who is already a full Northern Ireland international and he has been in the Liverpool Champions League matchday squad, he is very well thought of at Anfield and provided three assists in his pre season debut for the Trotters. I am also very keen on permanent signing Jack Iredale, the left back really impressed with Cambridge United last season and turned down a couple of Championship clubs to make the move to Wanderers. I expect some more deals to be done, a central defender seems likely, but pretty much all good to go, no negatives and I would be surprised were they not to go close.

We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.

Country:

Sport:

Competition:

Football Teams:

Must Read Betting Articles

Football Betting Tips

Professional Sports Betting Advice Service. Finding value and delivering profit since 2006

League 1 playoff final............

We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.

You are here

League 1 playoff final............

We don't just sell football betting tips, as you can see there is an extensive analysis behind our asian handicap selections. Subscribing to our sports betting advice service need not break the bank. Learn more by visiting our subscriptions page.

Don't be selfish, share the betting tips