League 1 betting tip:Bury- AFC Rochdale

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League 1 :Bury- AFC Rochdale

Fierce local rivalry between these two clubs with the towns separated by just 6-7 miles and no love lost between them, that is intensified this season with both teams battling relegation. I have spoken of both having improved or with potential to do so in recent months, writing about Bury in early February .............

 

A few signs of life at Gigg Lane. The hosts are bottom of the table 12 points from safety, but do have a game or two in hand on most of the teams above them in the table, they went 754 minutes without scoring a goal and suffered an eighth defeat in a row at home to Charlton Athletic last month which was absolute rock bottom, but they then went to a decent Oxford United side and won 2-1, the U's franked that form with a 3-2 win away to Charlton at the weekend whilst Bury showed some real fight to take a point from Blackpool on Saturday here, in a game played on an awful pitch, which today's will also be. The Shakers are clearly not prepared to give up just yet and I spoke to two Oxford fans who were at that recent game and they said that Bury were the better team, should never have been a goal down at HT, by which time they had hit the post, missed a great chance and been denied a very good penalty shout and lookedfar removed from a team in 24th who had just lost 8 in a row.

They are not suddenly world beaters, four points does not a summer make, especially on this pitch, but they have rediscovered some fight, were big spenders in the off season bringing in 15 players and have some quality amongst the squad somewhere and desperately need to find a way to win this. Wimbledon are probably ideal opposition, they are not 100% safe but seem booked for lower midtable and have had two long trips to Yorkshire and back in the last ten days and now have to spend another 4-5 hours on the motorway to get to Greater Manchester and they will not like the playing surface here. They have not been able to train since playing on Saturday and preparation for this game has been limited. Bury are unbeaten since a management team under Ryan Lowe took charge, the prolific striker has had 500+ league games and scored well over 150 goals all at L1 and L2 level and has the respect of the team and has got an immediate reaction, he was in charge for one game earlier this season too as an interim appointment between managers and he won that also, beating second placed Shrewsbury Town. No one likes playing on a pitch like this, but it will be less of an unknown for Bury and you have to feel an advantage for them in a must win game.


 
They won that 2-1 , but are still bottom of the table despite picking up hugely around the time I wrote those notes, losing just 1 from 9 collecting 13 points, as many as they did from their previous 23 starts, but much of that work has been undone by losing their last four. Two were against top 3 teams and they played quite well in a couple, including in a 2-1 loss at Bristol Rovers over the weekend where they led, but when luck is against you there is not much you can do and the final straw after the game was finding out that the team bus had an accident while they were in the stadium and they had to make the second leg of the 7-8 hour round trip with smashed rear windows. They sit bottom of League 1 , 12 points from safety and look doomed.
 
Early last month I previewed Dale's trip to Walsall............

These two clubs are quite similar in that both try to play good football and are of a similar size, with smallish squads and a limited playing budget. However, the hosts are mid table and safe from relegation fears. Dale are bottom of League 1, 12 points from safety albeit with 4-5 games in hand "courtesy" of the recent weather, a poor playing surface (which has now been relaid) and a great FA Cup run and if you saw their two games v Tottenham you know what lower league watchers have always been aware of, and that is that Dale and head coach Keith Hill always play football, a very good passing game that is pleasing on the eye regardless of score , or situation. It is to be applauded and I hope they get out of trouble, but it will take a super human effort, with 16 games to play inside 60 days, but that will be easier sooner rather than later especially after a six day break, which will soon be a rarity. Walsall were one of the few teams in the lower leagues who played last weekend, so have had less time to prepare.

Dale assistant coach Brian Barry-Murphy spoke about how his team immediately started thinking about the league after the loss at Wembley and then this, when their trip to Plymouth was called off, allowing them to fit in three full training sessions in preparation for this, the Saddlers probably just a light run through yesterday..........."Once the Spurs game finished, our focus was straight back on the next game, which was Plymouth, and that was reinforced by the manager in the dressing room at Wembley, so the lads were tuned into Plymouth from Wednesday night onwards. “When that was postponed on Friday morning, we started our preparations for Walsall, and trained as normal on Friday and Saturday for the match, so the lads are ready for the game and we’re fully prepared. "It’s one we’re looking forward to and we can’t for Tuesday night.”

Players feel recent performances in the league were deserving of more points and BBM added:“We’ve been in good form performance wise over a period of time, but results haven’t reflected that, which, at the end of the day, is all that matters. "The lads are well aware of that, so if we can play as well as we know we can do, then we’re more than capable of getting a result. "

Their last league game was a 1-0 loss at title favourites Wigan Athletic where the local Wigan newspaper said "Dale were left to rue several missed chances - namely from skipper Ian Henderson - as they left with nothing." Henderson had three golden opportunities, two which were easier to score than miss and he is normally reliable with 15 goals in all comps this season, 19 last and has scored on his last two visits to Walsall.

Huge, huge game for Rochdale, they have won on their last two visits here and by a combined 5-0, keeping a clean sheet in 4 of 5 trips to the Bescot.
 

They won that 3-0 , they have now lost 1/7 collecting 12 points and whilst 23rd in the table just one place above the Shakers, they have eight points more and 2-3 games in hand of all the teams above them and would be strong favourites for survival were they to win today. Last two games have seen them draw at then 5th placed Scunthorpe and on Friday beat league leading Shrewsbury Town 3-1, a huge confidence boost. In addition, they have not left Greater Manchester for ten days and have more prep time to focus on this and with home games next week against highflying Wigan and Portsmouth they will surely be targeting all three points today. Dale have not lost here at Gigg Lane since 2010 recording two big margin wins in that sequence and winning the last two (both in 2017) by a combined 5-0, not conceding in three visits. Rochdale are the better team, with stronger recent form and should be a little fresher and I expect them to win, but this is a huge rivalry and perhaps the last chance for Bury to salvage some pride and we can expect them to give this a "real go" and it certainly meets the "two struggling teams" criteria.

 

1.5 units Rochdale -0.5 ball 2.26 asian line/Sportmarket.
 

1.5 units "over" 2.5 goals 2.30 asian line/Sportmarket.

 

Good Luck.

 

 

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