La Liga betting tip: Alaves- Athletic Bilbao
Dec 17, 2018
La Liga: Alaves- Athletic Bilbao
Basque derby with the Alaves stadium about 40 minutes drive inland from Bilbao, Athletic have long been the major power in the region, with Alaves the third biggest club after Real Sociedad. There has always been a rivalry between these Basque teams, but in the past they have been known to "help" each other when the need was great and it could be done without too much personal cost, we are a bit early in the season for that, but it is always worth bearing in mind late in the campaign.
I previewed Athletic's home game with Girona last Monday, the notes were largely based around the huge improvement at the visitors and their Guardiola/Manchester City connection, but included ............
Athletic are in a bit of a mess and I feel sad typing that as they have done us many favours and at huge odds and I will never forget that breakout European season under Marcelo Bielsa.......what fun that was !
Since the start of last season Athletic have scored 55 goals in 52 starts and have won just 7 of 26 at home, at (former) fortress San Mames. They have never been relegated in their history and between 09-10 and 16-17 were never lower that 12th with 6 top 8 finishes and in the last four of those, they twice posted 13 home wins. They were 16th last season and look to have gone backwards, currently 18th, they have not won since opening day (last minute winner over Leganes) . They finally bit the bullet and sacked head coach Eduardo Berizzo who has had an awful 12 months (sacked last December by Sevilla one week after returning from cancer surgery !) and replaced with an internal appointment with youth team coach Gaizka Garitano. The new coach is Basque, born and raised in Bilbao and if you cut him open he probably has Athletic carved into his bones ! However, his head coaching record, in charge of Deportivo and Valladoild is awful, 33 points from 37 games and youth team football is not conducted under the same spoltlight or level of pressure and not everyone is built for it.
Now the bad news ! Inigo Martinez , Peru Nolaskoain, Yuri Berchiche , Mikel Balenziaga are all out today, three due to suspension, that means no recognised left back, someone will fill in and they will be also be without their star central defender and main back up. That will certainly have got Stuani's attention. Visitors, who are unbeaten in 9 on the road, off level ball.
Athletic won 1-0, they started very strongly, had several huge chances early, before Girona had a goal disallowed (rightly) by VAR, that saw the visitors back in things for 10-15 minutes or so, if Athletic had conceded then, things might have played out differently, with confidence a bit fragile, but the home side got back on top and dominated all but that brief period and had 7-8 big chances to score, which at this level is huge. However, it took a 92nd minute penalty to register the win and it was celebrated wildly, tears in the crowd amongst the passionate and devoted fans and it felt like a result needed to stay in the top flight, as opposed to an early December fixture, but it clearly meant everything to supporters and players. It was a good performance from Athletic and one they can build on. They get the three suspended players back today (see above) and Martinez and Yuri should definitely return to the starting 11, that gives far greater options, the goal, even from the penalty spot of favourite son Aritz Aduriz was very welcome, it was his first in the league of the season, he did score four in two Copa del Rey games around the turn of the month and like most strikers he is very streaky and more should follow. They also played back to back to back on Monday night (3 weeks running), which is rare and gives them an advantage as they will have been on this schedule (training and days off) for several weeks.
Alaves have not played on a Monday since mid March. After a solid start to their season, they do not have a clean sheet in eight starts, have taken 4 points from 5 league games ( only beating basement club Huesca , in a match where they trailed) and have also been eliminated from the Copa by Girona, conceding twice in each leg. They had a lot go their way in early season and were scoring a number of very late goals (after the 89th minute in 6/8 games, most to steal a point of two), but have only scored two second half goals in their last six starts, conceding 7 themselves and "losing" 4 of those. It feels like a good time for Athletic to make the short trip to Vitoria-Gasteiz and if new head coach Gaizka Garitano ( see above) can have them as fired up as last Monday, they should collect the win to take them out of the drop zone.
1.5 units Athletic Bilbao -0.25 ball 2.28 asian line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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