Japan J-League Cup ..........
Sep 08, 2024
Machida Zelvia- Albirex Niigata
Consadole Sapporo- Yokohama F.Marinos
These are the return legs of the two games I previewed on Wednesday and those notes are reproduced at the foot of this newsletter. Albirex won 5-0 with Machida having a player sent off with the score at 1-0 , it hardly helped, but I suspect they would have lost anyway and now they are missing five players today . It makes for an odd game, as Albirex will not care about losing narrowly, but Machida were awful, some of their defending, even with 11 players was shambolic and they clearly missed the absences as keeping things tight, is very much their MO.
Marinos won 6-1 which was "ok" but it was another game "ruined" by an early red card for Consadole and I am rather certain we would have got the two goals from them, had 11 remained on the pitch. Actually they had a very early goal ruled out for offside after a rebound from the woodwork, but it would have counted if that had gone straight in. I still feel that we should give Consadole great credit for "having a go", when the tie was lost and they were tiring and a man short and I suspect they will be looking to save some face today and get back to winning /scoring ways to set them up for a massive nine remaining league games.
They are 2.01 to score twice and 3.30 + to win. Marinos will rotate even further and maybe leave one or two back in Yokohama, as it is a long journey up to Sapporo (over 1,100km). Consadole also had big support in Yokohama for such a journey on a midweek night and "owe" the fan base, so no let up from them IMO.
1 unit Consadole Sapporo -0.5 ball @ 3.30 asian line .
2 units Consadole Sapporo to score "over" 1.5 goals @2.01 asian line .
Albirex have now scored eight goals in three unbeaten games with Machida and the hosts are beat up defensively, so value IMO, in what could be an open game, with ........
1.75 units Albirex Niigata to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 3.40-3.50 asian line.
Good luck!
Japan J-League Cup:
Yokohama F. Marinos- Consadole Sapporo
These two have featured heavily in my notes in recent weeks and I previewed the reverse fixture in the league four weeks ago......
Two rounds ago I noted .........
Those who have not been so fortunate and who have played better than the table suggests are Shonan Bellmare who should have 12 more points and be 11 goals better off, Yokohama F. Marinos ( 10 points and 14 goals), Consadole Sapporo ( 10 points , 12 goals) and Kashiwa Reysol who have performed at top 6 level for more than one year and this season should have 7 more points and be a massive 15 goals (0.68 per game) better off.
Marinos were the team who beat Machida ( see above) winning 2-1 and also beat 3rd placed Antlers 4-1. Consadole have subsequently and from a position bottom of the table with only 11 points, scored six in the Cup, drawn with champions Vissel Kobe and won 4-3 away to Urawa Reds who are far and away top home scorers in J-L1.
It is a crying shame that these two are playing each other, but that doesn't mean that we cannot find some good bets in a game which screams goals and traditionally obliges, with 5+ goals in three of the last five h2h meetings.
I do expect Marinos (2-1-2 in the last three seasons) and a Champions League finalist this season to continue to charge now, but Consadole have refound their mojo and their cup form (still in both competition) has translated to the league and they are desperate for points. 4-1/3-2/4-2 is on the cards and good value with each of .......
1.5 units "over" 4.5 goals 3.61 asian line.
1.75 units Yokohama Marinos to win and both teams to score @ 2.81 asian line.
1.25 units Consadole Sapporo to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.99 asian line.
That played out absolutely perfectly with Marinos winning 3-2 . YFM have subsequently won 3 of 4 starts scoring 11 goals and conceding 5. Sapporo have been in great form, sensational considering their league position, and are coming off a 2-0 defeat of Kawasaki Frontale on Sunday........
Consadole's form is as far removed from that of a basement club as it is possible to be and their great run continued last week in a six pointer at Jubilo Iwata .....
Last weekend Consadole Sapporo hosted Sagan Tosu and I wrote.....
| 10-Jul-2024 | Emperor's Cup (r3) | Consadole Sapporo | 6-3 | Montedio Yamagata |
| 13-Jul-2024 | J1 (23) | Consadole Sapporo | 1-1 | Vissel Kobe |
| 20-Jul-2024 | J1 (24) | Urawa Reds | 3-4 | Consadole Sapporo |
| 07-Aug-2024 | J1 (25) | Yokohama F-Marinos | 3-2 | Consadole Sapporo |
| 10-Aug-2024 | J1 (26) | Consadole Sapporo | 2-2 | Avispa Fukuoka |
Like almost any team at the foot of the table Consadole Sapporo are not having much luck, but for the 5th game running (see above) there were positives to take from their 2-2 draw with Avispa, where they completed 520 passes and dominated possession. We know that doesn't mean much in modern football, but perhaps it does when you are holding up the rest of the division and are meant to be low on confidence. XP continues to suggest they should have an additional 9-10 points on board and pretty much on a par with Sagan Tosu who are winless in four games (one point) and who have conceded 18 goals in their last seven starts.
At the start of this season I wrote ..............Sagan Tosu have statistically been the worst team in J-League 1 over the last two seasons averaging just 0.97 xP and 0.86 xGF across all 72 games. They operate on a small budget and lose their best players most seasons and that has again been the case coming into this campaign and I wonder how long that can continue, along with basically underperforming on the pitch and also surviving, surely something has to give.
That makes three seasons in a row that we can make a strong case for them being the worst team in JL-1 and surely that luck will run out this time, regardless of which, this is getting close to drinking in the last chance saloon for Consadole. It is a very long (2,100km) trip for the visitors and even flying is going to make it a 6-7 hour transit each way.
Consadole sped out of the box, led 3-0 inside 16 minutes and were very worthy 5-3 winners and they are scoring for fun. Sagan looked poor and also lost at home to a second tier team in midweek where again they trailed early, 2-0 down after 12 minutes, which makes 8 goals conceded in the opening 20 minutes of their last 5 games.
Consadole will travel to Jubilo Iwata in great heart and with a chance to close in both them and Sagan and it will really be on for the great escape with the win.Jubilo's mini upturn came to an abrupt halt at Machida Zelvia last week, with the hosts out of sight early and the home side have now conceded 19 goals in their last 7 starts , including seven against two bottom five teams.
Sapporo won 2-0 and if anything, that scoreline was flattering to Jubilo.
Consadole now host Frontale, the visitors are better than 14th, but I am not sure they can match the hosts for motivation, or goals at present and anyway, I want to ride the Sapporo train for as long as possible. Frontale have conceded 7 goals in their last two visits, both of which finished 4-3, a win each and the last 10 meeting here have averaged 46 goals, so we should be entertained.
I expect both teams to relax a little today. They will try to progress of course, but the competition is fairly low priority for both and whilst it awards some silverware, it doesn't offer a route into the Champions League. Hard to see a clean sheet for two offensive minded teams who are at or very near top form and scoring for fun.
1.75 units Yokohama F.Marinos to win and both teams to score @ 2.51 asian line.
1.5 units Consadole Sapporo to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 2.52 asian line.
Albirex Niigata- Machida Zelvia
I opposed Machida on Saturday at big odds at home to Urawa Reds ......
Bit of a mixed bag in opposing Machida in recent weeks, having had a feeling that their bubble was about to burst, they did beat up on Jubilo Iwata and edged past Tokyo Verdy, but were outplayed in the latter and the first says more about the level of Jubilo. The reasoning was sound and in the other games played in the last 6-7 weeks, the promoted leaders have struggled and the pack are closing! The Jubilo game aside they have scored just 3 goals in six starts and Urawa will arrive looking for revenge after losing the reverse fixture in early season. Reds are one of the big J-League teams and will want a strong finish to the season, their gap to Machida is big at 19 points, but xP places it at just 4 , with two games in hand for the visitors from Saitama and that feels far more realistic.
Machida came from behind twice to force a 2-2 draw and were actually quite impressive. However, they are without four starters today in goalkeeper Kosei Tani, CB Yuta Natayama, RB Henry Heroki Mochizuki and top scorer Oh se-hun, who all played at the weekend. Oh scored their first goal and was their MOTM, all four are away on international duty. That seriously weakens them and surely the league is their priority, they have now lost their lead at the top of the table and they will be desperate if not to get back in title contention, to at least finish in a Champions League spot. Albirex are perhaps a little too close to the foot of the table, but are out of the Emperor's Cup, have never won a trophy and will surely be up for this and have taken four points from the two league meetings, including a 3-1 win in Tokyo earlier this season.
1.75 units Albirex Niigata -0.5 ball @ 2.59 asian line.
1 unit double both Consadole and Albirex to score "over" 1.5 goals @ 6.25-6.875 general quote.
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