League 2:

 

 

Last 13 seasons: The team finishing 4th has won twice (but only once in the last ten), the 5th and 6th placed teams have won three times and the team in 7th on five occasions, with all five of those coming in the last nine seasons.

 

 

In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season): Mansfield 11 points, FGR 11, Newport 8, Tranmere 2.

Points picked up over the second half of the season : Tranmere 40 (+6), Newport 36 (+1), FGR 35 (-4) and Mansfield 34 (-8) the figures in brackets indicate more(+) or less (-) points compared to first half, so Tranmere collected six more points from the second 23 games, Mansfield 8 fewer.

 

 

 

 

 

That was 0-0 as we entered the 52nd minute, County scored late on after going 2-0 down and never lost heart, desire, or commitment and do thrive on these big matchdays.

 

 

 

 

 

League 1:

 

3. Charlton Athletic

4. Portsmouth

5. Sunderland

6. Doncaster Rovers

Last 13 seasons:  Teams finishing 4th have won five times, the team in 3rd four ,  6th on three occasions, the side who ended in 5th just once and that was 13 seasons ago, so they are currently running at  0/12.

 

In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season): Sunderland 11, Charlton 11, Portsmouth 6, Doncaster 3.

Points picked up over the second half of the season :  Charlton 45 (+2), Sunderland 38 (-9), Portsmouth 37 (-14), Doncaster 34 (-5).

 

 

Charlton are in the playoffs for the second year running and are the only team this time round with an improvement over the second half of the season, that was the case with winners Rotherham United 12 months ago. Rovers finished 12-15 points behind the other three and did not win any of the six h2h games against the trio. Charlton must be delighted to be meeting them in the semi finals. They are going to face one of two massive clubs who will fill their side of Wembley in the final, but also teams with a sense of disappointment with Sunderland (who finished in that jinx 5th position) and Pompey having had chances for top 2 most of the season, each has also had a bit dip in terms of points collected since Christmas and any value is with Athletic IMO.

 

 

 

 

Championship:

 

3. Leeds United

4. West Bromwich Albion

5. Aston Villa

6. Derby County

Last 13 seasons: The third placed team has won seven times (53.8%), 4th twice, 5th three times, the team in sixth just once and not for the last eight seasons.The Championship is the highest scoring league in the EFL and the 12 games between these four teams have seen 9 produce 3+ goals and a whopping 8 go "over" the 3.5 goal line and the dozen fixtures average 3.75 . However, the prize is so great that teams seem loath to play their natural game in the hunt for a Premier League spot and the last 15 Championship post season games have seen only one produce 3 goals and the last ten ( two season) have totalled just 10 goals , with three games ending scoreless, four with exactly one goal and three with precisely two, five of the ten ended in draws after 90 minutes.

In terms of h2h round robin (games between the four teams this season): Leeds 13, Villa 8, WBA 7, Derby 6.

 

Points picked up over the second half of the season : Villa 43 (+10), WBA 38 (-4), Leeds 35 (-13), Derby 35 (-4).

 

 

Villa and Derby both made the post season 12 months ago and that experience served Fulham well last season, but they were the best team by far over the second half of the campaign and this time round that is the Villans and the other three teams all picked up fewer points in the second half of the campaign which is a no no usually. Fulham were also rated #2 (after Brentford) for XG last season and top 5 defensively. Leeds would be the standout contender on those XG, both for and against, but their form tailed off badly in the second half of the campaign, albeit from a very high level, but having spoken all season long about expecting United to run out of steam, given double and even treble training sessions in pre and early season, along with a hard, high press, I can hardly side with them now that it has come to pass . So lots of conflicting numbers here and I suspect games will be as close as Championship post season match ups usually are.

 

 

 

 

Finally, in terms of that second half of the season form, if we extend that over 46 games, the playoff contenders would have finished ...........

 

 

2nd Tranmere/ 7th Newport/ 8th FGR/ 11th Mansfield.

 

2.5 Charlton/ 6th  Portsmouth/ 6th Sunderland/ 8th Doncaster.

 

2.5 Villa/ 5th WBA/ 8th Leeds/ 8th Derby.

 

With the five highlighted teams coming in at under post season level.

 

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That has worked out well with both Charlton Athletic and Newport County in their respective finals.

 

In terms of what we can expect in these finals, the Championship deciders have been incredibly close and tense affairs, it is called the biggest money cash game in world football with good reason, it is worth circa £160m minimum and a team looking at a 3-4 season spell in the top flight like recent promoted teams in Watford, Bornemouth and Burnley have managed, can generate an additional £500m of income, possibly more. For that to potentially be decided over one game of football is a frightening prospect and puts players/coaches under almost unbearable pressure. The last six Championship finals have averaged 0.83 goals, two have ended 0-0, three 1-0 and one ended 2-0.  League 1 games have been the most open with 3.0 goals per game, four going "over" 2.5 and three with four +, League 2 has a mean of 2.67 with four "over" 2.5. The last 18 finals (those six years) have produced six draws, two in each league, so a good chance that we will see extra time in at least one this weekend.

 

It is worth noting that 4 of the 5 teams I highlighted as having played at sub play off level in the second half of the season went out at the semi final stage, Derby County bucked the trend, but they were playing Leeds United,  another team who made the crietria and one had to lose ! Also, County were 2-0 down on aggregate in the second leg, some tactical switches worked well for them and, not for the first time , Leeds ran out of steam/ideas/inspiration. The Rams finished 6th and the team ending the campaign in that position has not won for eight seasons and everything points to Villa being the better team and they have huge experience from their final loss 12 months ago, when they started poorly and I expect that lesson to have been learned.

 

Charlton meet Sunderland who are looking to buck the jinx of finishing 5th , with the team in that position not having won in 12 seasons. Athletic were much the better team over the second half of the season and really looked good in the semi final first leg, but instead of coasting to the final, made very hard work of things. However, maybe that was their blip and I see more potential and more match winners in their squad.

 

Newport County were the team who impressed me the most in the six semi finals, they started slowly in the first leg at home to Mansfield , but grew into the contest and despite drawing, went to Mansfield with great confidence and took the game to Town and might have won that by 3-4 goals, such was the number of good chances they created. They showed wonderful togetherness and spirt, between the team with both coaching staff and supporters and vice versa, a very strong bond and almost refusal to lose, you do not see this often , when it happens it is almost always succesful and I just think that County believe and that it is going to take a titanic effort from Rovers to beat them. Newport played Tottenham at Wembley last season experience which will serve them well and they have been training all week on the Cardiff City pitch to get used to the bigger surroundings/beter playing surface, they are unbeaten in four h2h games with Rovers, conceding just once.

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, you could just trade out those original positions, take a small profit on each and sit back and enjoy the two games, but that is no real fun is it ?