EPL: History doesn't favour the bottom four, even at this early stage.
Oct 17, 2024
Premier League:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Liverpool | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 18 | WWWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | ||
| 2 | Manchester City | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 | WXXW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | Arsenal | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 | WWXW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 | XWWW | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | ||
| 5 | Aston Villa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 | OXWW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 6 | Brighton & HA | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 12 | WLXO | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | ||
| 7 | Newcastle United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 12 | OXLW | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 8 | Fulham | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | LWWX | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 | LWWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | ||
| 10 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 | XLXW | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 11 | Brentford | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 10 | WXLL | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | ||
| 12 | West Ham United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | WXLX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 13 | Bournemouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | LWLL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 14 | Manchester United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 | OLOW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 15 | Leicester City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | WLXX | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 16 | Everton | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 | OWXL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | ||
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LXXO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | ||
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | LLOX | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 19 | Southampton | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 | LLXL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | ||
| 20 | Wolves | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 1 | LLLL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | ||
Last week I wrote ..........
The last six seasons, which is what I have used for most of these stats, the team placed 20th through 7 rounds has been relegated each time. So bad news for Wolves, I saw them at the weekend and we can discuss them in greater detail next week.
Of the 18 relegated teams, 14 of them already filled the bottom four spots through 7 rounds .
Six of the last 10 title winners were already sitting atop of the table after 7 games, another three winners were outside the top 6 at this stage, but with the big three EPL players already filling the top 3 spots and big spenders Chelsea in 4th, it is hard to see anyone coming from off the pace to take the crown.
Manchester United had their worst ever EPL start through 7 games in 2023/24, picking up just 9 points and sitting 10th. This season they have beaten that record! With 8 points placing them 14th.
Tottenham Hotspur have finished top 5 seven times in the last decade and I suspect that was a minimum target for Ange Postecoglu coming into this campaign, but in each of those seven campaigns, Spurs were top 8 through 7 rounds top 6 in six, this morning they are 9th.
Leicester City and Ipswich Town will be pleased for small mercies and to be outside the drop zone following promotion, but just one win between then and the two have given up a respective 2.61 and 2.63 xGA per game to place them bottom two in the EPL and have also created 0.99 xGF pg each, which are also bottom two numbers.
No team in the last six years has been relegated from a top half position after 7 rounds. Dang! Why didn't Brentford score one more goal against Wolves!
Ipswich- Everton
Things are starting to look a little brighter at Goodison Park, the (very) long awaited takeover looks set to be completed (although we have been here before!) and on the pitch, The Toffees have 5 points from their last three league games and are unbeaten in four (one cup). Their penultimate game was a 2-1 defeat of Crystal Palace ahead of which I wrote ..........
Palace have not won in 10 EPL visits to Goodison and Everton head coach Sean Dyche has faced the SE London team more than any other in his career and has a very solid 1.5 points pg from 22 meetings. I suspect this might be the most important of the 23 and with that draw at Leicester City last week, at least the Toffees now have something to cling onto and as incredible as it seems given all the negative talk about the club, three points could not only take them above Palace, but out of the drop zone.
Ahead of that trip to the King Power I wrote .....
I am sure it is only me as everyone else outside of Merseyside seems to wish them ill, but I feel that Everton have been a little hard done by to be pointless through four games. They started well enough in their opener against a strong Brighton team, but that ran away from them and they were then hammered at Tottenham, but in their last two they led 2-0 at home to Bournemouth with three regulation minutes remaining and 2-0 away to Villa and lost both 3-2! The Toffees actually played well in both and on another day could have scored four goals in both games. Either way, those opponents are stronger than City and Sean Dyche, who is a better head coach than many give him credit for, sets his team up well in these kinds of fixtures. Incredibly, given their 15th place finish, Everton were 5-4-2 on the road last season to teams outside the top 8 and 3-2-0 versus the bottom 6 . This is a big game for both teams as promoted City are also winless, albeit with two points on board, but it feels huge in terms of this season for Dyche and the Toffees and I favour them to edge this. City have "only" conceded 7 goals but they have given up 13 BC's and 12.25 attempts ITB on average and a massive 39 TIPA (over 40 in two games).
Teams coached by Oliver Glasner have a habit of starting slowly and they made quite a few changes over the summer and it looks like they are struggling to gel, whilst being asked to play a more physical game than they had previously. He has insisted on playing Daichi Kamada, a player he clearly requested, as they were together at Frankfurt, but he looks well off the pace (he should have been booked three times at Brentford and arrives about 30 seconds after the ball) and is alongside Adam Wharton, who Palace fans are convinced is carrying an injury. I am not sure that Palace should be favoured and I have to take a chance on their poor Goodison record continuing.
They have played once subsequently, a 0-0 draw with Newcastle United and now travel to newly promoted Ipswich Town who are winless and who's xGD numbers we have already touched upon at the start of these notes. Above, in blue type, I also mentioned how well Dyche sets his teams up and prepares them for these type of games and he knows they dictate whether teams ultimately survive, or fail and he has more experience of them than any current EPL head coach, with seven previous relegation campaigns. I am not sure Town should be favoured and I like Everton off level ball and to score twice.
2 units Everton level ball @ 2.17 asian line.
Good luck!
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