EPL betting preview...........
Dec 05, 2024
EPL: Fulham - Brighton
Two rounds ago I opposed Fulham at home to Wolves ........
Fulham are a good team, are 7th on merit and should perhaps have more points, but those goal scoring concerns still remain and they are a bit feast or famine as I wrote ahead of their most recent home game.....
They have kept just a single clean sheet in 11 EPL starts and rode their luck in that game. They are well managed and better set up defensively now, at least in the backline, but do not have the goal threat of the Bees and my preseason notes on the hosts touched upon that..........
Fulham will have been very pleased with how 23/24 played out, but head coach Marco Silva always feels like it would not take much for him to move and he can be outspoken at times, but he did not take the Saudi riches last summer so he might be happy at Craven Cottage. The signing of Emile Smith Roe from Arsenal looks decent business, but the loss of Joao Palhinha to Bayern Munich is big, in his two seasons in the EPL with the club he only played 20 minutes or less in ten games and they lost 6 and conceded at the rate of 2.3 per start. Their 47 points was a 5 point drop off from 22/23 and xP gives them two fewer still. They conceded eight goals more and with a shake up needed in central defence and no natural replacement for Palhinha (they only have one natural DM and Silva likes to play with two), goals against could be an issue and it is not like they are flush at the other end of the pitch. They performed better in that regard last season than I expected, but no one scored more than nine goals and their strikers are of the long in the tooth/ not quite been up to EPL/lacking in experience variety and right now, they need Brazilian Rodrigo Muniz to step up and /or Raul Jimenez to perform. The Mexican did well with 7 goals, but that still makes only 17 in four seasons and whilst he had that horrific injury, we are talking about 83 appearances.
They had the odd really good result, especially at Craven Cottage, but it was feast or famine there and 27 (from16.8 xGF) goals (which is half of what they scored all season) came in 8 home games, just 4 total in the other 11 and for my money, that is too many offensive no shows.
Jimenez has 4 goals which is ok, no one else has more than two and only one other striker has played any first team minutes apart from the 33yo Mexican and they feel an injury away from a real issue. The same is true in DM where they are starting Sander Berge, who was signed from Burnley (his last two seasons in the EPL, only campaigns really, have both ended in relegation) alongside a converted Andreas Pereira, he has made six starts in that position (Fulham conceding 1.5 goals pg) and when either is replaced, as one or both tend to be during the game, it is by an out and out AM, or central defender. Despite playing in the holding role, Pereira is still their chief playmaker and he has created a sky high 26 chances , second most in the EPL, but NONE have been converted! It is hard to play those dual roles and he has played less than 70 minutes in 4 of his last 5 starts and left the field with a knock in the other (last time out).
They won those two subsequent games 2-1 (trailed into added time ) and 2-0, with the second coming against 10 men and no goals from a striker. Those "issues" are still a concern and I cannot see Fulham as a circa 1.60 chance against anyone until they are resolved.
Wolves won 4-1 and whilst Fulham steadied the ship with a 1-1 draw at Tottenham on Sunday, they again had trouble converting chances .
At around the same time that Fulham were shipping those four goals, Brighton were winning at a decent Bournemouth team......
Since that nightmare start under Andoni Iraola to begin his tenure and the 23/24
season (0-3-6), Bournemouth have played at a high level and even better than 1.5 points pg from those 40 fixtures indicate, but that would be good for 9th place on average and top ten is definitely their level. I saw them before the international break losing 3-2 at Brentford, but no shame in that(!) and they looked very good indeed in the first half, playing some very slick football, but they did get outplayed after the break. Having said that, they were the best team to play at the Gtech this season and by some way . I like them, Iraola and their bench options and they were my EPL dark horse last season and they feel a very established mid-table side now.
Brighton, however, are a bit more than that and ahead of their 2-1 defeat of Manchester City two weeks ago I noted.....
Brighton have had a full 7 days to prepare solely for City after back to back games with Liverpool (league and cup) they lost both (3-2 and 2-1), but might easily have scored three in each and they have scored 2+ in their last five starts here at the AmEx. City have conceded in 10 of 11 domestic games (should have been all 11) in addition to shipping four in Lisbon on Tuesday (only the second time they have conceded four goals since September 2020). They seem sure to concede one and, with the Seagulls back to playing with bravery and attacking intent, the real only question is will a second follow ?
Luckily we answered correctly! Brighton, as I so often say, are IMO, one of the two best run teams in football, with regard to the identity of the other, answers on a postcard please! They struggled a little with that first ever European campaign last season, but were always going to get back on track as long as Fabian Hurzeler was the right man to replace Roberto De Zerbi and the Seagulls do not make mistakes with such decisions. They are 6th and genuinely of that level, they have scored 28 goals in 14 competitive starts and in the four in which they failed to score two + goals, they should have done so in three and the other was a 1-0 win at Newcastle anyway, this is a very strong team, who lose little in quality with game time substitutions and as much as I like Bournemouth, they should not be favoured today for my money.
The Seagulls led 2-0 and kept that lead until deep in added time, despite playing 30+ minutes with 10 men and are back on the road today where they can play to their strengths and cause anyone issues in transition. Carlos Baleba returns from his suspension,whilst Fulham lose both Sasa Lukic and his replacement Tom Cairney who are banned and this is already a problem area of the pitch for the West London club and with big money CB signing Joachim Andersen injured, the defensive spine of their team looks shorthanded and vulnerable. Again, like at Bournemouth , who franked the form with a big win at Wolves last weekend,I cannot agree with the hosts as favourites.
2.5 units Brighton level ball @ 2.34 asian line.
Good luck!
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