English football through 7-10 rounds ..............
Oct 10, 2024
Premier League:
| 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Liverpool | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 2 | +11 | 18 | WWWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | ||
| 2 | Manchester City | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 | WXXW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | Arsenal | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 17 | WWXW | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 14 | XWWW | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | ||
| 5 | Aston Villa | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 | OXWW | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | ||
| 6 | Brighton & HA | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 12 | WLXO | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | ||
| 7 | Newcastle United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 12 | OXLW | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 8 | Fulham | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 11 | LWWX | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 10 | LWWL | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | ||
| 10 | Nottingham Forest | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 10 | XLXW | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | ||
| 11 | Brentford | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 13 | +0 | 10 | WXLL | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | ||
| 12 | West Ham United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 | WXLX | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 13 | Bournemouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | LWLL | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 14 | Manchester United | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 8 | OLOW | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 15 | Leicester City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 6 | WLXX | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | ||
| 16 | Everton | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 5 | OWXL | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | ||
| 17 | Ipswich Town | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4 | LXXO | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | ||
| 18 | Crystal Palace | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 3 | LLOX | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 19 | Southampton | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 1 | LLXL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 10 | ||
| 20 | Wolves | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 1 | LLLL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | ||
The last six seasons, which is what I have used for most of these stats, the team placed 20th through 7 rounds has been relegated each time. So bad news for Wolves, I saw them at the weekend and we can discuss them in greater detail next week, but defensively they were a shambles.
Of the 18 relegated teams, 14 of them already filled the bottom four spots through 7 rounds .
Six of the last 10 title winners were already sitting atop of the table after 7 games, another three winners were outside the top 6 at this stage, but with the big three EPL players already filling the top 3 spots and big spenders Chelsea in 4th, it is hard to see anyone coming from off the pace to take the crown.
Manchester United had their worst ever EPL start through 7 games in 2023/24, picking up just 9 points and sitting 10th. This season they have beaten that record! With 8 points placing them 14th.
Tottenham Hotspur have finished top 5 seven times in the last decade and I suspect that was a minimum target for Ange Postecoglu coming into this campaign, but in each of those seven campaigns, Spurs were top 8 through 7 rounds top 6 in six, this morning they are 9th.
Leicester City and Ipswich Town will be pleased for small mercies and to be outside the drop zone following promotion, but just one win between then and the two have given up a respective 2.61 and 2.63 xGA per game to place them bottom two in the EPL and have also created just 0.99 xGF pg each, which are also bottom two numbers.
No team in the last six years has been relegated from a top half position after 7 rounds. Dang! Why didn't Brentford score one more goal against Wolves!
Talking of the Bees , some good news finally and they look set to have four players back following the international break including striker Yoane Wissa, Brazilian wunderkind Gustavo Nunes who has yet to play since signing from Gremio, creative midfielder Mathias Jensen and LB Rico Henry who has not played in 13 months and his return will be greeted like the second coming! Brentford will also have played both Manchester clubs, Liverpool and Tottenham on the road by the end of next week, which are a lot of tough games out of the way.
Championship:
The last six champions have been placed 11-4-4-4-5-1 through nine rounds . Of the 18 teams promoted, only one was placed either second or third at this stage, so history is against Sheffield United and Burnley who are both looking for a speedy return to the EPL.
It is not a total surprise, the Championship is relentless, good quality teams, 46 games, all of which are super competitive and with a host of midweek fixtures, it is the ultimate "marathon not a sprint" and most teams will have a losing run at some stage.
It is the playoff winners who make interesting reading, the last seven have been placed 14-13-10-9-22-18-10 through 7 rounds and of those seven teams they not only had momentum, but six had either been relegated the season before or had come up short in the playoffs 12 months earlier. Are we on to something here?
It makes sense to some degree, as losing in the playoffs and being relegated can give some teams a hangover and it can take a few games to get that out of the system and to get going.
League 1/ League 2:
| L2 2024/25 | Overall | Home | Away | |||||||||||||||||||||
| P | W | D | L | F | A | Gdf | Pts | Form | P | W | D | L | F | A | P | W | D | L | F | A | ||||
| 1 | Walsall | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 19 | XLWW | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | ||
| 2 | Gillingham | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 19 | LLWW | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | ||
| 3 | Barrow | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 19 | WLLW | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | ||
| 4 | Doncaster Rovers | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 19 | WWLX | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | ||
| 5 | Notts County | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 9 | +8 | 18 | LWXL | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 4 | ||
| 6 | Port Vale | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 | WXWX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | ||
| 7 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 16 | OWWX | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 7 | ||
| 8 | Crewe Alexandra | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 16 | WLWW | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | ||
| 9 | Bradford City | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 11 | +3 | 15 | WXLO | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | ||
| 10 | Newport County | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 15 | LWWL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 12 | ||
| 11 | Grimsby Town | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 15 | LWWW | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | ||
| 12 | Chesterfield | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 14 | XXWX | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 4 | ||
| 13 | AFC Wimbledon | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 13 | LOWW | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| 14 | Milton Keynes Dons | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 | XWXX | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | ||
| 15 | Salford City | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 12 | WLOL | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | ||
| 16 | Colchester United | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 | OXLW | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | ||
| 17 | Tranmere Rovers | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 11 | XXOL | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | ||
| 18 | Harrogate Town | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 11 | OLWL | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | ||
| 19 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 | OXXL | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 20 | Cheltenham Town | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 10 | LWLX | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | ||
| 21 | Swindon Town | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 8 | OXLL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 5 | ||
| 22 | Carlisle United | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 7 | OLLW | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | ||
| 23 | Accrington Stanley | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 | WLXL | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 11 | ||
| 24 | Morecambe | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4 | LXXX | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | ||
Not much trend wise at this stage in League 1, but the 4th tier is worth a look.....
Top 3 go up automatically and one via the playoffs, so the last six seasons in which they have played the full 46 rounds (I ignored the COVID shortened 2019-20 season) makes 24 teams. Only three teams top at this stage of the season were promoted, all as champions, the other leaders all missed out completely. Ten promoted teams were placed outside the top 7 at this stage, which is a very healthy 41.67% and seven went up automatically. However, this stat is perhaps the most eye catching..... four were bottom half of the table ( 15-13-19-20) and three went up automatically! I would consider all four of those "bigger" clubs by League 2 standards and of those currently placed 13th or lower, Wimbledon, MK Dons, Tranmere, Carlisle and Swindon would make that criteria, with healthy 6,600+ average attendances.
I saw Wimbledon preseason and whilst they eventually lost and conceded 5 to Brentford, they played pretty well. They spent six straight seasons in L1 until relegation in 2022, they struggled the first season back in L2 but were 10th last season (4th for xP) and that gave them a base to build from and the season before their last promotion they were 15th. They are now established back at their old Plough Lane stadium , their head coach and his assistant recently signed contract extensions, the club is supporter owned and immersed in the local community. However, they are not exactly flush with cash, need to raise funds this season and some of that money now needs to be spent on the pitch after it was flooded, causing two home games (one cup) to be postponed and no knowing if there will be further issues, it is not a simple fix apparently and/or if it will cut up once played upon and that has to make them a pass, but they could go well.
In any case, I just cannot understand/agree with the odds quoted for ...................
I went on to write some lengthy notes for subscribers about another team and put up two bets both at odds of 17.0 and a strong suggestion @ 3.50 and we have an incredible record with these double digit odds selections, almost always going close.
Good luck!
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