Championship betting tip...............
Jan 22, 2023
Championship: Sunderland- Middlesbrough
In early December I wrote .....
Sunderland 7.2/10.7, 9-15, 38-56, 12.7, riding their luck defensively, how they have only conceded three goals in their last five will have to remain a mystery!
Four columns, they are , in order, xG, BC's, ITB attempts, average (current) league position of the opponent faced. Good numbers in relation to league placing are highlighted in blue type, poor numbers in red.
They then immediately beat a good Millwall team, but I updated with .........
Sunderland did beat Millwall 3-0 nine days ago and that after I had bigged up the Lions, but Millwall bossed the game statistically and dominated the first half (0-0) with the SE London side creating a good 90 minutes worth of offensive numbers in the opening 45, when they should have led by 1-2 goals . They had a poor 4-5 minutes early in the second and the game was lost. If they were to replay that game I would expect a very different outcome.
They are 2-2-2 subsequently, beating two out of form sides, drawing with two others, but losing home starts to the two inform teams they have faced and shipping five goals in the process. When those highlighted defensive issues really came home to roost. They are also without suspended CB Luke O'Nien today, who has missed just two games in the last ten months. Immediately before that he sat out 19 games in their 21/22 promotion season, through which they were 7-7-5, but were 19-6-5 when he played, including winning the playoffs.
Middlesbrough make the short trip (48km) up the coast to play a rival, but both club's supporters seem eager not to refer to the game as a "derby" which seems odd to outsiders. Boro also made the early December notes ............
Having discussed two teams in detail last week, I have to at least talk a little about Middlesbrough today. They are currently 15th, but only six points off 4th place and arguably the #1 expected team ( #2 if not!) . Boro finished 7th last season which is kind of ideal if you are not going to be promoted, as it is a strong placing and spares teams the anguish of missing out in the postseason and avoids the shortened off season. They came into this campaign full of optimism, head coach Chris Wilder had taken Sheffield United up and Boro were much improved after his arrival in November last year, being top 5 in all statistical categories. However, he was sacked in October with Boro bottom three and having won just 2/11 starts and the word amongst supporters and I am only repeating what I read, was that Wilder was pursuing his own agenda, totally intransigent with regard to formation and selection when things were clearly not working and had lost the support and respect of the players.
He was replaced by Michael Carrick who was born and raised in the North East and spent 15 years at Manchester United as player and coach until last season . Carrick has collected 10 points from his first game in charge after unluckily losing the first and he has sorted out the defence immediately and the difference at the training centre under him and his coaching staff is said to be like night and day compared to the Wilder regime. That includes former players Grant Leadbitter and Jonathan Woodgate who was actually Boro head coach until his dismissal in 2020, so that is an odd one, but he was born and raised in the city and supported the club as a boy. Also, Aaron Danks joined the staff last week, he is young and well thought of and has been working at Aston Villa and also with the England U20 (World Cup winners) and U21 groups.
The Boro numbers are sensationally good , they have been all season really, but the results and goals are starting to come for Carrick , they have been free scoring on the road (13 in their last five) and now need to bring that flair to home games at the Riverside. I understand that they might bring in one or two in the January window and the coaching staff have a lot of contacts in the game between them to use in the loan market, but that they are pretty happy with the squad as it stands. The division looks weak, I discussed that last week and you can see how tight everything is, last season two teams picked up 50+ points from the final 25 games (the stage we are at now), Huddersfield Town (53) and Nottingham Forest (52) to move up from mid table into the top 4 and actually faced off in the playoff final and Boro have that potential and almost certainly don't need that number of points to break into the top 6. I can see the Championship table having a very different look in a couple of months time and Boro seem almost certain to put in a top 6 challenge.
Boro are now up to 4th and have won 5/6 games since the restart, scoring 13 goals, including five in back to back road wins. It is hard not to be super impressed with what Carrick has done and he and his team are making really good "in game" decisions from the sidelines , with Boro scoring 18 second half goals in their last ten starts. They also have Chuba Akpom and former Brentford striker Marcus Forss scoring in tandem, with 11 goals between them across the same 10 games. Away win.
2.25 units Middlesbrough -0.5 ball 2.44 asian line.
Good luck!
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