Bundesliga betting tip: FC Schalke 04- Borussia Mönchengladbach
Jan 17, 2020
Bundesliga: FC Schalke 04- Borussia Mönchengladbach
through 17 rounds
Leipzig +81 (90-37)
BMG -1 (58-54)
Bayern +105 (81-41)
Dortmund +35 (69-37)
Schalke -29 (38-78)
Leverkusen +59 (55-51)
TSG -20 (56-63)
Freiburg -27 (51-66)
Wolfsburg +22 (64-44)
Augsburg -40 (42-48)
Union Berlin -16 (59-50)
Hertha -36 (34-61)
Frankfurt +56 (74-44)
Mainz -39 (46-63)
Koln +10 (43-43)
Fortuna -73 (32-75)
Werder -18 (44-57)
Paderborn -69 (50-74)
Net ITB numbers for the season directly alongside each team, figures after that in brackets are ITB numbers (created-conceded) for the last six games.
BMG, Schalke , TSG and Freiburg do not have numbers comparable to their league placings, Schalke's last six are terrible, no top five team gives up 12.5 pg and are almost -7 net pg.
As you will see both teams are top 5, but net ITB numbers put BMG 8th and Schalke 13th and XP puts the two at 3rd and 11th respectively and whilst the Borussia figures are not what we would expect from a team in second place, they are not as far off as Schalke's are for a team in their lofty position. In actual fact, XGF suggests that BNG should even have scored an extra five goals with Schalke having an XGD of 21.5 -26.5 (-5) instead of 29-21 (+8) and putting them on 10.3 points fewer and only 1.75 above the relegation playoff spot. To be honest, having seen three seasons of a David Wagner coached team at Huddersfield Town and I am including their promotion season, when they were no more fun to watch, I am not surprised that the Schalke numbers are so poor with him at the helm. He is far too negative and defensive minded for my liking and his teams always end up easy to get in behind too IMO, at least once other clubs start to work him out. Anyway, 38 attempts ITB for the last six games is the third lowest in Bundesliga and 78 given up is the worst and those are very worrying stats, add in that they have been overachieving with those they are creating and we have to look to take them on until the numbers change.
In the interest of fairness, Schalke have had some injuries and not been able to name a settled CB pairing, or to decide on one, today, defensive trio Stambouli, Sane and McKennie (he has missed 10 games in the last 12 months, just one win and that over an ultimately relegated team) remain sidelined and goalkeeper Nubel, who has agreed a move to Bayern at the end of the season, is still serving a suspension. Back up keeper Marcus Schubert has conceded three goals in his two starts, twice at home to a Freiburg team with poor numbers immediately before the break.
2 units Borussia Mönchengladbachasian -0.25 ball 2.26 line/Sportmarket.
Good Luck.
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